Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

As of 0830z (4:30 AM) this morning, a NE-to-SW oriented line of
convection with embedded supercells is nearing the NW corner of
the state. The line is progged to push through Metro Atlanta and
Athens between 11z-15z, and push through Macon and Columbus
between 13z-18z.

As far as the SPC Convective Outlook valid until 12z, far NW GA
remains under a Slight Risk with the remainder of N GA roughly
along and north of I-85 under a Marginal Risk. SPC/RAP
mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg across this
area as the line of convection moves through, along with both
effective SRH and 0-1 km SRH around 200-300 m^2/s^2 and favorably
curved hodographs. All this said, expect for convection to
maintain intensity across the Slight and Marginal Risk areas
through the morning and continue to pose a threat for damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes. Speaking specifically to the tornado
risk, a Tornado Watch is in effect across NW GA until 13z.

After 12z, the SPC Convective Outlook picks up with a Marginal
Risk generally along and south of I-20 and a Slight Risk roughly
from a Columbus to Macon to Augusta line. Assuming adequate
daytime heating and resulting destabilization, could see SBCAPE
and MUCAPE climb to 1000-1500 J/kg across the Slight Risk area
this afternoon. The environment is forecast to remain supportive
of robust updrafts -- with the potential for supercells -- given
hi-res models depicting sufficiently high supercell composite
parameter values (which take into account MUCAPE, effective SRH,
and effective bulk wind difference). In addition to damaging winds
and tornadoes, severe storms this afternoon could also produce
hail, though marginal mid-level lapse rates could prove to be a
limiting factor.

Cloud cover will clear quickly behind the line of convection as
the attendant cold front pushes through. A Wind Advisory is in
effect from 12z this morning to 03z Sunday (11 PM tonight) for
counties along and north of I-20. Sustained winds will be 20-25
mph and gusts will be 35-40 mph as the pressure gradient tightens
in the wake of the departing low pressure system that is driving
the severe weather threat. Wind gusts could be even higher at
elevations above 2000 feet.

Much colder air will arrive overnight with Sunday morning lows in
the mid-30s to to mid-50s. Sunday will be sunny to mostly sunny
with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

A cold front will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the late week into the weekend.

High pressure will be in place across the CWA for the first part
of next week. A cold front will begin to move out of the central
US into the Mississippi River Valley by late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The boundary should cross the Mississippi River on
Wednesday and then move through much of the CWA on Thursday. The
front will end up stalling across southern GA or the FL panhandle
for the latter half of the week into the early part of the weekend
as it becomes parallel to the flow in the mid levels. Models have
been pushing the boundary further south from run to run and not
confident that the boundary will push as far south as the northern
GOMEX. So, precip chances for the end of the week into the early
weekend will depend heavily on where the boundary sets up. Several
waves of low pressure are progged to move east along the
boundary, so the potential for locally heavy rainfall will exist
along and south of where the front stalls.

Models are also still progging the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Monday as a strong southern
stream shortwave moves across the Gulf States. Thickness values do
indicate that there is some potential for an organized area of
thunderstorms and will not make any major changes to this period
in the forecast.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

TSRA have begun to impact RYY and PDK, with ATL and FTY expected
to get TSRA starting at 12z and AHN at 13z. This messy area of
convection will clear the ATL area sites and AHN by 15z-16z with
quickly improving ceilings in its wake. The convection will impact
MCN and CSG between 15z-17z. SW winds are breezy ahead of the
convection -- 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds will remain
just as gusty after the convection moves through, although wind
direction will become westerly.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  72  50  70 /   0   0  10  30
Atlanta         45  71  52  70 /   0   0  20  40
Blairsville     36  68  44  65 /   0   0  10  30
Cartersville    41  70  50  70 /   0   0  20  40
Columbus        48  75  54  75 /   0   0  20  50
Gainesville     43  71  50  67 /   0   0  10  30
Macon           49  74  53  75 /   0   0  10  40
Rome            41  71  50  70 /   0   0  20  40
Peachtree City  43  72  51  73 /   0   0  20  50
Vidalia         52  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057.

&&

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
500 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
500 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of thunderstorms will move through much of north and
central Georgia today. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong
to severe. There is also some potential for isolated brief
tornadoes, but the primary severe weather hazard will be damaging
wind gusts.

Patchy to areas of frost are possible late Saturday night across
portions of northeast Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms will be possible again during the mid to late week
as a cold front stalls across portions of central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
707 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ030-031-041-011130-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
707 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Paulding,
Haralson and Polk Counties through 730 AM EDT...

At 707 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Fish Creek to Coleman Lake And Campground, and moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Cedartown, Buchanan, Rockmart, Tallapoosa, Aragon, Braswell,
Taylorsville, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Burnt Hickory Ridge, Eubank
Lake, Esom Hill, Antioch, Van Wert, Cross Roads, Draketown, Felton
and New Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for northwestern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 8540 3409 8505 3408 8491 3408 8474
      3397 8474 3374 8521 3375 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 273DEG 43KT 3400 8512 3378 8557

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ006>008-013>015-011145-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
721 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lumpkin, southeastern
Gilmer, central Dawson, northeastern Pickens, southern Union and
southeastern Fannin Counties through 745 AM EDT...

At 721 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Pisgah to near Sequoyah Lake to Jasper, and
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Jasper, Suches, Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake,
Camp Merrill, Woods Hole Shelter, Fausett Lake, Springer Mountain
Shelter, Len Foote Hike Inn, Black Gap Shelter, Lake Tamarack,
Auraria, Stover Creek Shelter, Hawk Mountain Shelter, Porter Springs,
Turners Corner, Nimblewill, Blood Mountain Shelter and Gaddistown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for north central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8383 3472 8385 3472 8386 3470 8386
      3459 8397 3443 8402 3445 8408 3450 8415
      3448 8445 3457 8443 3470 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 267DEG 42KT 3470 8425 3458 8439 3449 8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
725 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ020-021-031>033-011200-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
725 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Paulding, southern
Cherokee, Cobb, north central Fulton and southeastern Bartow Counties
through 800 AM EDT...

At 724 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from George Washington Carver St Pk to Yorkville to
Buchanan, and moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Dallas, Mountain Park, Roswell, Alpharetta, Milton,
Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Powder Springs, Holly Springs, Hiram,
Emerson, Braswell, Fair Oaks, Yorkville, Burnt Hickory Ridge, Kellogg
Creek, Red Top Mountain State Park and Lost Mountain Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for north central
and northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8500 3395 8498 3398 8497 3416 8472
      3416 8436 3419 8433 3419 8426 3415 8426
      3402 8440 3387 8460 3378 8480 3378 8489
      3381 8504 3390 8504 3390 8505 3392 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 274DEG 35KT 3414 8468 3391 8497 3382 8518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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