Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Today and tomorrow will be a wash, rinse, repeat type of forecast
days with summer type like convection occurring.

Today energy moving through the main southwest flow aloft will lead
to episodes of severe convection near a few stalled surface
boundaries. Unfortunely this type of set up makes it difficult to
spot exactly where convection will occur. So while we know the
atmosphere is primed for isolated to scattered severe storms for
the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, determining
the exact timing and placement remains difficult.

If the CAMs are to believed (ARW seems to have verified better than
some of the others this afternoon), scattered showers and storms
will continue to evolve across our western borders and move east
across the FA throughout the evening. Current mesoanalysis
indicates decent deep layer shear, high instability (SBCAPEs
2000-3000 J/kg), lapse rates of 6-7km, 0-1 km SRH ranging from
150-200 m2/s and strong DCAPEs will likely result in severe storms
containing hail and damaging winds along with heavy rainfall.

Tonight into early tomorrow morning another potential round of rain
showers and thunderstorms slides into our area from the west. This
activity will be hinged upon how this evenings activity evolves.
For now will note that should this activity develop as the short
term guidance has been indicating then damaging wind gusts will be
the main impact and the activity will likely be focused across
norther GA. For now the HRRR remains the most bullish on this
activity and illustrates storms occurring after 08Z tomorrow
morning with less wide spread coverage than today.

All of the above thinking has been highlighted by the SPC Day 1
Outlook, which outlines areas north of a line from Haralson to Hart
counties in a Slight Risk (2 out 5) and much of central GA in a
Marginal Risk (1 out of 5).

Unfortunely, things do not end here...the heat continues. A heat
advisory remain in effect through 8 PM tonight for the entire CWA
with the exception of the far N GA counties. Another heat advisory
is likely to be issued for tomorrow during the overnight forecast.
Nonetheless...keep in mind heat safety when celebrating the 4th
of July holiday over the next few days.

28

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Key Messages:

- Afternoon to evening thunderstorms possible on the 4th. Some could
be strong to severe.

- Heat will continue through the week, though not quite as warm as
yesterday and today.

- Thunderstorms possible most days in long term forecast. Summer in
the south continues.

4th of July:

No changes made to the extended periods. Shortwave trough over the
northeast will continue to exit to the Atlantic going into the 4th,
leaving behind a stalled frontal boundary to the north of the CWA.
This along with remnant outflow boundaries from the previous evening
will once again be a focus for more convection. I don't want to rain
on anybody's parade, but numerous thunderstorms may actually bring
some rain and thunderstorms to a few parades across the CWA. Some of
these will certainly persist into the evening, so if organizing or
going to any events to celebrate the 4th, please stay weather aware
and remember that if thunder roars, go indoors. 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE
is noted during the afternoon across the GEFS members, so a few
strong to severe storms will be possible, which is yet another
reason to remain weather aware during any celebrations. Heat may
also be a concern, as forecast heat index values are approaching 100-
105 across much of the CWA. However given that convection is
expected, especially in north GA where there will be better
proximity to the stalled boundary, this may limit impacts with cloud
coverage and rainfall. Decisions on the need for any heat advisories
will be made with future forecast packages, as uncertainty is a bit
too high.

Rest of Forecast:

Through the midweek, pattern won't change very much. Diurnally
driven convection will be possible each day as copious moisture
remains in the area. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the
90s, which when combined with the humidity, will keep heat indices
up near 100 or higher.

By end of week, strong trough digs into the midwest and helps drive
frontal boundary towards and even into the CWA, though boundary will
be quickly washing out as it approaches. Appears as though we will
see more rounds of afternoon convection likely driven in part by
this boundary. That said, GEFS members do have a bit of uncertainty
in just how this will play out and what instability may look like.
But, give me a boundary, even a weak one, approaching the CWA with
relatively high PWATs in July, and I'm going to bet on the
convection happening.

Lusk/01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Expecting mainly VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon
and evening. TSRA will likely occur after 23Z and will be
scattered in nature. Have included a TEMPO at all sites from 23Z
to 03Z Monday. West southwest winds will remain in place through
the forecast period at less than 10kts expect near thunderstorms
where outflow winds could be stronger.

//ATL
Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium on TSRA timing and development.
High on all other elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  73  91 /  30  30  30  50
Atlanta         74  94  74  90 /  30  30  30  60
Blairsville     67  87  69  85 /  50  30  30  60
Cartersville    72  93  72  90 /  40  40  30  60
Columbus        75  96  76  94 /  30  30  20  50
Gainesville     72  91  73  89 /  40  30  30  50
Macon           75  97  75  94 /  20  30  20  50
Rome            72  93  73  91 /  40  40  30  60
Peachtree City  74  94  74  91 /  30  30  30  50
Vidalia         76  98  76  96 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
124 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031730-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
124 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorms Watch is in effect across portions of
North and Northeast GA until 9 pm.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of northern and central
Georgia through 8 PM today. Expect heat indices to approach or
exceed 105 degrees. Take appropriate actions to avoid heat related
illnesses.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected between 2 PM and 10 PM today.
A couple of storms could be severe with damaging downburst winds,
frequent lightning, and some hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through
Saturday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe
weather Monday and Tuesday. The primary severe hazard on both days
should be damaging downburst winds. Be prepared for potential
disruptions to your 4th of July activities.

Hot and humid conditions will continue in central Georgia through
mid week, with afternoon heat indices in the 102 to 108 degree
range.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

GAZ042-053-022030-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Carroll
and northwestern Coweta Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Plant Yates, or 10
miles northwest of Newnan, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Whitesburg, Dunaway Gardens, Plant Yates, Byers Crossroads,
Arnco-Sargent and Roscoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8484 3352 8482 3351 8482 3351 8481
      3350 8481 3342 8479 3341 8497 3348 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 253DEG 12KT 3346 8492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
419 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

GAZ011-019-022045-
Chattooga GA-Floyd GA-
419 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Floyd
and southwestern Chattooga Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Fullerton, or 10 miles
northeast of Cedar Bluff, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Summerville, Lyerly, Lindale, Coosa, Berryton, Chattoogaville,
James H. Floyd State Park and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8531 3418 8511 3411 8543 3443 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 252DEG 11KT 3428 8542

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
505 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

GAZ033-034-045-022130-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
505 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern DeKalb,
west central Gwinnett and northeastern Fulton Counties through 530 PM
EDT...

At 505 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Dunwoody, or 7 miles
west of Peachtree Corners, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Peachtree Corners, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Alpharetta, Dunwoody,
Duluth, Norcross, Doraville, Berkeley Lake and Mechanicsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8415 3393 8413 3391 8440 3394 8441
      3396 8439 3397 8439 3398 8438 3399 8438
      3409 8424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 243DEG 6KT 3396 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
516 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Hail             2 NE Sweetwater Creek S 33.77N 84.60W
07/02/2023  M1.00 inch       Douglas            GA   Public

            1 inch hail reported on Thornton Rd near
            I-20.

&&

SK

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
526 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Morganville        34.97N 85.50W
07/02/2023                   Dade               GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down along Murphey Hollow Road near
            Ferndale Branch Creek.

&&