Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
749 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms beginning to
pop across N GA this afternoon. These showers are associated with
a short wave moving East to Southeast across TN/Northern AL. With
NW flow over the area these storms will continue to move SE
fairly similar to yesterdays storm event. With plenty of moisture
in the atmosphere, Temps in the 90s, and SB capes ranging from
3000 to 6000 j/kg range we may be in store for some very strong
to severe storms as they move into central GA later this
afternoon/evening. Looks like the biggest threats will be strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some hail. Shear values are
very low with this pattern so not expecting any tornadic threats.
These storms should weaken and diminish after sunset but with
continues NW Flow and another wave expected Sunday we could be
seeing another day of afternoon storms tomorrow.

Sunday has potential to be even warmer as the main upper level
ridge continues to shift east. Heat indices are again expected to
get up into the 100 to 110 range across the area so will continue
with the current heat advisory through Sunday evening.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Long term begins Sunday evening with an upper level ridge centered
over the area beginning to break down giving way to zonal flow.
Generally west to southwesterly flow, warm temperatures and
dewpoints in the upper 70's will be common through the long term.
Given the warm temperatures and abundant moisture, diurnally driven
convection will be possible each afternoon and evening as weak
disturbances traverse the main flow with a focus across north GA
where a stalled frontal boundary will linger. While rain chances
remain in the forecast each day, rain will be hit or miss for most
locations resulting in 5 day rainfall totals of under an inch. In
term of severe weather the risk remains low at this time a rumble of
thunder is likely with a few storms becoming strong.

High temperatures in the 90s will be common each day through Friday
with lows barely falling into the upper 60s and 70s. Heat indices
of 100F-108F degrees will also be common across central GA Monday
through Thursday.

Friday/Saturday...a weak mid level troughs begin to impact the
region. In response to the aforementioned trough moving towards
the Deep South from the west heights will fall as southerly flow
deepens and begins to advect more moisture into the area. Pws of
over an inch and a half will remain common across the FA. This set
up will promote an increased in showers and thunderstorms along
and ahead of a weak cold front. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe. frontal boundary begins to move into NW GA. As
the day progresses and the front moves eastward precip will
increase. SBCAPEs remain modest for this set up and only encroach
upon our southern counties. Have included a mention of thunder
starting Thursday afternoon through Friday from Macon southward.

28

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

TSRA/precip has evaded ATL up until now, but cannot rule out
lightning and gusts to 25-30kts through 02-03Z. Expect VFR conds
to continue for the majority of the TAF pd. Metro TAF sites may
see a pd of low- MVFR to IFR cigs around daybreak forced by heavy
precip this evening, but fairly low confidence. TSRA chcs will
pick back up tomorrow afternoon/evening, with best window
currently looking like 20-01Z. Winds likely to go CALM/VRB
overnight, picking up out of the W/SW at less than 7kts by 09-10Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence morning cigs and TSRA timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  95  73  93 /  30  20  30  40
Atlanta         73  95  75  92 /  30  30  30  50
Blairsville     67  89  66  85 /  30  40  40  50
Cartersville    72  96  71  91 /  30  40  30  50
Columbus        75  98  76  95 /  20  30  30  50
Gainesville     72  93  73  91 /  30  40  40  40
Macon           73  98  75  96 /  20  30  30  50
Rome            72  96  73  91 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  72  96  73  93 /  30  30  20  50
Vidalia         75  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for GAZ001>005-011-
012-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-022300-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
659 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across central
and portions of north Georgia this evening. The primary threat
with any stronger storms that form will be damaging wind gusts,
hail, frequent lightning, and isolated flash flooding from heavy
rainfall.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of north and central Georgia
today, with heat index values of as high as 105 being observed.
If spending time outdoors, be sure to stay hydrated, wear
lightweight clothing, and take plenty of time to rest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat index values
between 100-110 degrees across portions of the forecast area from
Sunday through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the
majority of north and central Georgia from 8AM Saturday through
midnight Sunday.

Additionally, scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible each day Sunday through Thursday. Some
storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts,
large hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall
leading to isolated flash flooding being the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
858 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ090-102-020130-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-
858 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Chattahoochee and northern Stewart Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 858 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Louvale, or 9 miles
southwest of Cusseta, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Charles, Brooklyn, Jamestown/South Fort Moore, Renfroe, Louvale and
Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3217 8502 3220 8496 3221 8498 3222 8498
      3222 8493 3224 8491 3225 8492 3226 8489
      3228 8492 3230 8485 3221 8464 3219 8464
      3218 8463 3217 8464 3201 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 311DEG 11KT 3220 8490

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
900 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Jersey              33.71N 83.76W
07/01/2023                   Walton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines down along H D Atha Rd between
            Jersey Social Circle Rd and Penland Rd.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
903 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ078-079-089>091-020130-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
903 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Marion,
northeastern Muscogee, northeastern Chattahoochee, southwestern
Talbot and southeastern Harris Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 903 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Baughville, or 9 miles
west of Talbotton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly Hall, Junction City, Geneva, Upatoi, Ellerslie, Box Springs,
Marion Estates, Juniper, Eelbeck/West Fort Moore, Baughville and
Olive Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8485 3273 8468 3259 8446 3244 8456
      3243 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 321DEG 24KT 3263 8470

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

GAZ104>106-020130-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
905 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Dooly, southeastern
Sumter and northern Crisp Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 905 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Flint River Wma to near Byromville to near
Tippettville, and moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cordele, Vienna, Byromville, Pinehurst, Lilly, Cobb, East Crisp,
Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk, Richwood, Flint River Wma, Hatley,
Drayton and Tremont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8380 3193 8401 3215 8403 3226 8387
      3210 8362 3200 8361 3188 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 349DEG 15KT 3216 8395 3222 8386 3210 8368

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
920 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Winterville             33.97N 83.28W
07/01/2023                   Clarke             GA   911 Call Center

            Numerous reports of trees and powerlines
            down on roads and houses in the Winterville
            area.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
921 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Winterville         33.96N 83.32W
07/01/2023                   Clarke             GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down at Winterville Rd and Sartain Dr.

&&