River Flood Warning 105, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Main Forecast Points:

-Scattered to widespread storms expected through the evening today
 (potentially lingering overnight) with locally heavy rainfall and
 isolated damaging wind gusts with any storms that form this
 afternoon.

-'Cooling' trend continues as a result of rain chances and cloud
 cover.

-Slight westward shift in the track of Hurricane Idalia.

Currently...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
across portions of south-central GA. The stationary boundary that
was bisecting the forecast area has since lifted back northward.
Storms are expected to persist through the evening though may
linger into the overnight hours. With no changes to the juicy
environment, locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts will
the primary hazards with any storms that develop today (similar to
yesterday). SBCAPE values are 3000-4000 J/kg, DCAPE values are
700-900 J/kg and PWATs are well over 2"...so certainly plenty of
fuel for storms to work with. Coverage of showers and storms may
be slightly less overnight but more rain will be on the way as we
start to feel the impacts from the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Idalia overnight.

Latest NHC Advisory has Hurricane Idalia making landfall along the
coastline of "Big Bend" area of Florida around sunrise Wednesday
morning. As this occurs, outer banding will begin to approach
portions of Middle Georgia overnight tonight and early tomorrow
(Wednesday) morning. Per this latest advisory, there was a slight
westward shift in the track of Hurricane Idalia thus impacts from
winds and heavy rain have been expanded further north and west
into the forecast area, encompassing more of east- central
Georgia. After making landfall, Idalia will steadily move into
southeast Georgia by the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday.
With the track of Hurricane Idalia trending slightly more
westward, elected to expand the Flood Watch (again) another tier
of counties north and westward. The HREF LPMM (ensemble
probability mean) was also a player in this decision and has done
well with the predictability in QPF totals. Forecast storm total
rainfall has also increased to now be 4 to 8 inches across
southeast Georgia with pockets of rainfall up to 10" possible.

Sustained winds across portions of southeast Georgia are forecast
to range from 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph from late
Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for Toombs, Montgomery, Wheeler,
Telfair, Dodge, Wilcox, and Crisp counties. In addition, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued to the north for Emanuel,
Treutlen, Laurens, Johnson, Bleckley, Pulaski, and Dooly counties.
A tornado threat will also exist within the rainbands as Idalia
moves onshore and approaches our area. As we have seen over the
past 24-48 hrs, any adjustment of the track further to the west
may increase potential impacts for portions of Middle Georgia.
Changes may be forthcoming following the next NHC Advisory.

Thanks to cloud cover and rainfall temperatures tomorrow will be
noticeably cooler...yay. Highs forecast to be in the 70s to low
80s. Low temperatures forecast to be in the 60s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

After Hurricane Idalia has moved out of the area, we return to a
more seasonal pattern with temperatures running a few degrees below
normal in the mid to low 80s. As the remnants of Idalia stalls off
the coast, it will filter dry air down the spine of the Appalachians
keeping the CWA dry and on the cooler side for the entire extended
forecast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to low 60s and should be
generally very pleasant.

Winds will remain out of the NE through the forecast period with
some gusty winds up to 15kts. There is some significant deviation in
the long term models. Idalia stalls this weekend just off the
Carolina coast and what it does will ultimately dictate the course
of the forecast for early next week (and luckily for me that's just
out of the longer term forecast range).

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Current convection will continue into the evening hours. Do expect
a lull in precip until the bands start approaching from the south
by mid morning. During this time, there is definitely potential
for IFR and even LIFR cigs. Winds/wind gusts will also begin to
pick up by mid morning and could gust into the upper 20kt lower
30kt range. Widespread shra expected by mid morning.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  77  67  81 /  70 100  60  30
Atlanta         72  79  66  85 /  70  80  30  20
Blairsville     64  78  59  80 /  70  70  30  30
Cartersville    69  82  63  84 /  70  70  30  20
Columbus        73  80  69  89 /  50  80  30  30
Gainesville     70  79  66  83 /  70  80  40  30
Macon           72  77  69  85 /  50 100  50  20
Rome            70  84  64  87 /  50  60  20  20
Peachtree City  70  79  64  85 /  60  80  30  20
Vidalia         74  79  71  83 /  80 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for GAZ039-050-051-059>062-071>076-080>086-091>098-103>113.

Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ074>076-083-084-092>095-104.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ085-086-096>098-105>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1201 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1201 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is expected to redevelop
this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will remain the
primary concern with localized flash flooding possible, especially
in north Georgia. A few storms may produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday,
particularly across the southeastern half of the area as Hurricane
Idalia approaches southeast Georgia. The heaviest rainfall totals
associated with this system will be across far southeastern
portions of the area where as much as 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
with locally higher amounts is possible which will lead to
increased flooding potential. Additionally, wind gusts up to 45
mph are possible in far southeastern portions of the area as
Idalia approaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1018 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

GAZ007-012-013-020-021-300245-
Gilmer GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Pickens GA-
1018 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Cherokee, southwestern Gilmer, eastern Gordon, western Pickens and
northern Bartow Counties through 1045 PM EDT...

At 1018 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Fairmount, or 11 miles
southeast of Calhoun. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Calhoun, Adairsville, Fairmount, Ranger, Sonoraville, Redbud, Folsom,
Audubon, Salacoa Valley, Pine Log, Blaine, Oakman, Funkhouser, and
Hinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 8480 3459 8468 3458 8468 3459 8465
      3456 8449 3432 8462 3432 8500 3461 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 200DEG 4KT 3443 8476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SM