Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

746 
WWUS54 KEWX 020731
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
131 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

TXC123-285-020845-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230302T0845Z/
DeWitt TX-Lavaca TX-
131 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CST
FOR EAST CENTRAL DEWITT AND SOUTHERN LAVACA COUNTIES...

At 131 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fordtran, or 14
miles east of Cuero, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Speaks, Ezzell, Terryville and Hope. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 9694 2910 9698 2898 9714 2922 9719
      2941 9663 2934 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 261DEG 43KT 2908 9705 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

KCW

685 
WWUS54 KEWX 020738
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
138 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

TXC123-285-020748-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230302T0845Z/
DeWitt TX-Lavaca TX-
138 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DEWITT AND
SOUTHERN LAVACA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2906 9694 2910 9698 2898 9714 2922 9719
      2941 9663 2934 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 261DEG 43KT 2909 9695 

$$

KCW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1116 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

We did a quick update this evening to add a mention of patchy fog to
the forecast for the eastern half of the CWA from approximately
06-12Z tonight/tomorrow morning. Dense fog appears unlikely but
there could be widespread visibilities in the 2-5SM range as moisture
pools and winds become relatively light.

-Gale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible from the Hill Country into the
Coastal Plains Late Thursday...

...Strong West-Northwesterly Winds and Critical Fire Weather
Conditions Expected Late Thursday into early Friday Behind Cold
Front...

.Short Term (Through Thursday night)...

Expect for very warm conditions to continue this afternoon with
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s into the mid 90s. Late this
afternoon into this evening has a very low chance for possibly a
thunderstorm across the far northern Hill Country but greatest
chances occur north of our CWA around the Waco area. For overnight
tonight into Thursday morning, a preceding shortwave that will be
ahead of the much advertised potent upper level low approaching from
the Desert Southwest helps to spark a round of isolated to scattered
convection. An isolated strong to severe storm may be possible with
this activity with large hail as the main hazard as storms remain
elevated with 1000 to 2000 MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates of
around 7 to 7.5 C/km. As a result, SPC on the afternoon update of
the Day 1 convective outlook did insert a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) for severe storms.

The morning activity quickly vacates the area before temperatures
then surge into the mid 80s to upper 90s during Thursday afternoon
as the dryline initially advances east before then being eventually
overtaken by the cold front. Our greatest concern for severe weather
develops late Thursday afternoon and will continue through Thursday
evening as the front overtakes the dryline. Activity first develops
across the Hill Country before advancing eastward into the I-35
corridor and lastly into/across the coastal plains. The area
thermodynamic profiles and hodographs does support the potential for
all severe modes, including isolated tornadoes. However, with the
expectation for a more linear complex across our area, damaging
winds along with large hail are expected to remain as the primary
severe weather hazards across our region. The greater risk for
tornadoes, including the potential for strong tornadoes, remains
northeast of our CWA. The Day 2 convective outlook from SPC places
an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms into the northern
Hill Country while a slight risk (level 2 of 5) extends across the
remainder of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor and across the
coastal plains. The marginal risk (level 1 of 5) extends out from
the slight risk to the west. Activity will advance east of the
coastal plains by around midnight.

Major impacts continue even behind the front and the severe weather
across portions of South-Central Texas. Strong west-northwesterly
winds along with critical fire weather will be expected for western
and central portions of the CWA, including along the I-35 corridor.
Winds along the Rio Grande will have gusts into the 50 to 60 mph
range during late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night while
areas across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor sees gusts up
to around the 50 mph range. In addition, with humidity tanking into
the 10 to 25 percent range following the front and persisting into
early overnight Friday, critical fire weather conditions are also
expected across central and western portions of the CWA. Given the
conditions, several hazards are in effect including a High Wind
Warning, Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

The upper low will move away from the region Friday leaving zonal
flow over Texas. The pressure gradient will loosen during the morning
Friday and winds will decrease. Cooler air will move in and high
temperatures will be around 15 degrees lower than Thursday. Clear
skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling Friday
night and lows Saturday morning will be a few degrees cooler than
Friday. A weak upper ridge will start to build over Texas over the
weekend. The weather will be dry and temperatures will slowly warm.
This trend will continue into next week with highs reaching the
middle 80s by Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday a weak cold front
will move into Central Texas bringing a slight chance for rain to the
northern half of our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Thunderstorm complex west of San Antonio should impact the terminal
around 6z with isolated lightning strikes expected and light to
moderate rainfall. MVFR conditions should lower to IFR later tonight
before improving tomorrow morning. A Pacific front will push into the
region late tomorrow afternoon and bring with it another chance of
strong to severe storms to all sites and very windy conditions at
DRT where gusts up to 50 knots will be possible. Only expecting gusts
up to 30 knots for the I35 sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  87  48  73 /  30  40  60   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  86  47  72 /  30  40  60   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  87  48  76 /  30  30  50   0
Burnet Muni Airport            65  85  44  69 /  30  50  60   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  95  51  79 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  84  45  70 /  30  50  60   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  93  48  77 /  40  20  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  86  48  74 /  30  30  50   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  83  48  70 /  20  30  80   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  88  50  76 /  30  30  40   0
Stinson Muni Airport           67  91  51  77 /  40  20  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for
Atascosa-Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-
Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-
Williamson-Zavala.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night
for Kinney-Maverick-Val Verde.

&&

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
801 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-030215-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
801 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms overnight
that could produce large hail over the Hill Country and I-35
corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong upper level system and accompanying cold front are
expected to move over the area late Thursday afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible across most of south
central Texas. Some of these could become strong to severe with
straight line winds, isolated tornadoes, and large hail possible.

In the wake of the cold front, strong, gusty northwesterly winds
and much drier air will move into the area. A High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisory are in effect for Thursday afternoon and
evening. Critical fire weather conditions are likely over the
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains Thursday and Thursday
evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 PM CST WED MAR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     HAIL             3 NW DILLEY             28.71N 99.21W
03/01/2023  E4.00 INCH       FRIO               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL OFF OF HWY 117
            WEST OF DILLEY. HAIL CAME THROUGH ROOFS OF
            MOBILE HOMES AND TRUCK WINDSHIELDS.

&&

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1129 PM CST WED MAR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     HAIL             DILLEY                  28.67N 99.17W
03/01/2023  E2.00 INCH       FRIO               TX   PUBLIC

&&

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 AM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             CAMPBELLTON             28.75N 98.30W
03/02/2023  E1.00 INCH       ATASCOSA           TX   PUBLIC

&&

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1206 AM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             3 S CHARLOTTE           28.82N 98.70W
03/01/2023  E3.00 INCH       ATASCOSA           TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF ESTIMATED 3 INCH
            HAIL.

&&

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 AM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             3 SW COY CITY           28.80N 98.08W
03/02/2023  E1.75 INCH       KARNES             TX   COCORAHS

&&

29