Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
210 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A mesoscale moisture boundary in the Rio Grande Plains kicked off a
long track supercell this evening with a swath of a severe hail that
extended from Zavala County through DeWitt County as of 130 AM. Very
steep lapse rates above 925 mb and effective shear values near 75
knots has continued to allow this storm to continue as it moved
east. We have finally seen signs that this storm is finally on its
way out. Redevelopment of showers and storms in the western CWA has
occurred over the past couple of hours. The movement of this
activity is to the northeast which tells us that these storms are
elevated and embedded in the southwest flow aloft. Forecast
soundings out there show just thin and skinny CAPE for any parcels
lifted around 700 mb and think these cells should remain mostly
below severe limits with perhaps a small chance of marginally severe
hail. High-res models continue to perform quite poorly with the
evolution of this near-term forecast and will base PoPs overnight
into tomorrow on current trends with high chance PoPs continuing in
the the Hill Country and northern I35 corridor 9 AM before we likely
see some sort of lull.

The potent upper low is currently centered in western AZ and will
continue to push east through the day today. This will send a strong
Pacific front into the area late this afternoon and will provide a
focus for additional surface based convection with the chance of
strong to severe storms. Initiation should occur in the Hill Country
around 5-6pm with the storms then moving to the east. This should
place the line of convection in the I35 corridor around 7-8 PM and
in the Coastal Plains around 8-10 PM. SPC has placed a large portion
of the area in a slight risk with Burnet and Williamson clipped in
an enhanced risk. All modes of severe weather will be possible but
very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a
chance of isolated tornadoes especially in the northeast CWA where
better low-level shear is expected to be located.

Non-convective winds behind the system are still expected to be
quite strong with some 50-60 mph gusts possible in the Rio Grande
Plains where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Speeds will be lower
farther east with gusts in the Hill Country in the 40-50 mph range
and 30-40 mph in the I35 corridor and a Wind Advisory remains in
effect. In addition, low dewpoints behind the system will allow for
critical fire weather conditions to develop and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for tomorrow. If we get a severe thunderstorm or
tornado watch, we could have a plethora of products in effect which
is an easy way to tell this is quite the dynamic system.

All precip will end after midnight with breezy winds continuing.
Lows Thursday night will drop down in the 40s and 50s with the
cooler air. Northwest winds around 10-20 mph will continue Friday
with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions also
continuing. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Quiet weather expected this weekend through the beginning of next
week. Some concerns for elevated Fire Weather in the Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains areas Saturday
afternoon where RH will dip into the teens, but winds should remain
relatively tame at 7-13 mph. A gradual strengthening of the
subtropical high to our south will allow for a warming trend of 1-4
degrees each day. Sunny skies for the most part this weekend, but
more late night/early morning clouds Monday through Wednesday
after gulf moisture returns. Some fog would be possible in the
mornings as well. A subtle shortwave and approaching cold front
could bring returning shower/storm chances by Wednesday but
there'll be plenty of time to work out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Thunderstorm complex west of San Antonio should impact the terminal
around 6z with isolated lightning strikes expected and light to
moderate rainfall. MVFR conditions should lower to IFR later tonight
before improving tomorrow morning. A Pacific front will push into the
region late tomorrow afternoon and bring with it another chance of
strong to severe storms to all sites and very windy conditions at
DRT where gusts up to 50 knots will be possible. Only expecting gusts
up to 30 knots for the I35 sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  49  74  47 /  40  80   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  48  74  44 /  30  70   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  49  76  45 /  20  70   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            81  46  70  45 /  50  80   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  53  80  48 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  48  71  45 /  50  80   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  50  78  45 /  20  30   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  48  75  45 /  20  80   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  49  71  45 /  20  80   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  51  77  47 /  20  70   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           87  52  79  47 /  20  50   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for
Atascosa-Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-
Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-
Williamson-Zavala.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight
for Kinney-Maverick-Val Verde.

&&

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
801 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-030215-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
801 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms overnight
that could produce large hail over the Hill Country and I-35
corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong upper level system and accompanying cold front are
expected to move over the area late Thursday afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible across most of south
central Texas. Some of these could become strong to severe with
straight line winds, isolated tornadoes, and large hail possible.

In the wake of the cold front, strong, gusty northwesterly winds
and much drier air will move into the area. A High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisory are in effect for Thursday afternoon and
evening. Critical fire weather conditions are likely over the
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains Thursday and Thursday
evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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