Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2023

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 14, 2023Randolph County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at May 14, 2023, 2:08 PM CDT for Randolph County, Missouri. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2023, 2:08 PM CDT (19:08 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2023, 2:45 PM CDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 40

County Randolph County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 270 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 175 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1125 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 111 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 14, 12:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 12:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2023

Key Messages:

- Scattered to widespread showers and a storms today - tonight, some
of which could be strong.

- Next decent chance for rain comes Thursday into Friday.

The forecast area is situated near the apex of an upper ridge that
is centered over the southeastern states with its axis nosing right
through the forecast area. This is allowing for disturbances to move
northward along the western side of the ridge and with ample lower-
level moisture, areas of showers and storms have been drifting
northward overnight, only to dissipate as they move into weaker or
nonexistent instability. For today though, coverage of precipitation
looks to be scattered to widespread for several reasons. First,
looking through forecast soundings from across the area, we should
be able to reach our convective temperatures early this afternoon as
there's almost no cap in place. Second, a weak front will move
southward into the area and that will likely provide enough of a
focus to force additional showers and storms. SBCAPE values should
range from 1000-2000 J/kg by this afternoon with the greatest values
in our east and into eastern MO. Weak flow over the area, due to the
upper ridge, will result in 20 to as much as 30 kts of deep layer
shear. This will be marginal for storm organization so given the
CAPE/shear combination, we should see mainly airmass type storms
with possible hail to quarter size and strong winds in the
strongest storms. Precipitable water values climb into the 1.6 to
1.9 inch range which suggest potential for heavy rainfall in any
storm that does form today - tonight.

Cooler air will settle into the area on Monday behind the front that
moves through the area. This will be aided by thick cloud cover and
continued chances for showers and few storms. Temperatures climb
back to normal for Tuesday. With light winds and cooler dew
points, the mid 70s temperatures will be quite the contrast to the
humid air mass that was over the area the last few days.
Temperatures warm back into the lower 80s Wednesday into Thursday
ahead of the next system that will affect the area Thursday night
into Friday. A shortwave will track across the Upper Midwest and
push a cold front southward through the area bringing the next
chance for showers and storms. A cooler and drier airmass settles
into the area behind that front for next weekend. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal and high pressure settling
over the area will help keep the area dry.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2023

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in
areal coverage through the afternoon hours. Expect thunderstorms
to become even more widespread this evening into the overnight,
with heavy rain possible. Ceilings are expected to lower towards
IFR, and remain there Monday morning with showers continuing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...BT

Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 4:58 AM CDT, 9 hours 10 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
458 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. A
couple of these storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday. No severe weather is
anticipated. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms return
near the end of the week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 14, 12:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ021-022-029-030-141800-
Ray MO-Clinton MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
1223 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Clinton, northeastern Clay, northwestern Ray and southwestern
Caldwell Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Holt, or near Lawson, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Lawson, Lathrop, Holt and Elmira.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 26 and
45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 9440 3948 9446 3964 9423 3945 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 244DEG 7KT 3946 9432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

pp

Special weather statement, May 14, 1:24 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
124 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ024-032-141900-
Chariton MO-Linn MO-
124 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Chariton and southeastern Linn Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 124 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marceline, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marceline, Bucklin, Rothville and Wien.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3952 9299 3964 9309 3984 9291 3978 9286
      3970 9286 3970 9278 3962 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 232DEG 8KT 3963 9298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special weather statement, May 14, 1:44 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
144 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ022-023-030-031-141915-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Livingston MO-Caldwell MO-
144 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ray,
northwestern Carroll, eastern Caldwell and southwestern Livingston
Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cowgill, or 14 miles southeast of Hamilton, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Braymer, Breckenridge, Cowgill and Ludlow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9357 3944 9385 3956 9402 3979 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 223DEG 12KT 3956 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special weather statement, May 14, 1:51 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
151 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ024-025-141915-
Macon MO-Linn MO-
151 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Linn
and northwestern Macon Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bucklin, or near Marceline, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bucklin, New Cambria and Ethel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9287 3983 9292 4001 9279 3983 9255
      3970 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 229DEG 13KT 3978 9285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special weather statement, May 14, 2:08 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
208 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ025-032-033-141945-
Macon MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-
208 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Randolph,
eastern Chariton and southeastern Macon Counties through 245 PM
CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Huntsville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Bevier, Cairo, Jacksonville and Excello.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9268 3962 9279 3979 9248 3956 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 238DEG 13KT 3956 9267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 12:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Clinton	37 min
May 14, 12:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, Ray	2 hr
May 14, 1:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Chariton	36 min
May 14, 1:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell	31 min
May 14, 1:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Macon	24 min
May 14, 2:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Macon	34 min
May 14, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Macon	40 min
May 14, 3:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Macon	117 min
May 14, 3:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Chariton, Macon, Randolph	66 min
May 14, 4:01 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Randolph, Saline	3 hr
May 14, 5:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Saline	28 min
May 14, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson, Ray	47 min
May 14, 6:05 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Saline	85 min
May 14, 6:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Lafayette, Ray	23 min
May 14, 6:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Lafayette, Ray	112 min
May 14, 6:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Carroll	35 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2023 Every special weather statement in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.