Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

222 
WGUS73 KEAX 141952
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOC025-047-049-177-142002-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230514T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell MO-Clay MO-Clinton MO-Ray MO-
252 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL, SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON, NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND 
NORTHWESTERN RAY COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3946 9447 3963 9428 3965 9425 3966 9424
      3956 9404 3934 9435 3945 9448

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2023

Key Messages:

- Scattered to widespread showers and a storms today - tonight, some
of which could be strong.

- Next decent chance for rain comes Thursday into Friday.

The forecast area is situated near the apex of an upper ridge that
is centered over the southeastern states with its axis nosing right
through the forecast area. This is allowing for disturbances to move
northward along the western side of the ridge and with ample lower-
level moisture, areas of showers and storms have been drifting
northward overnight, only to dissipate as they move into weaker or
nonexistent instability. For today though, coverage of precipitation
looks to be scattered to widespread for several reasons. First,
looking through forecast soundings from across the area, we should
be able to reach our convective temperatures early this afternoon as
there's almost no cap in place. Second, a weak front will move
southward into the area and that will likely provide enough of a
focus to force additional showers and storms. SBCAPE values should
range from 1000-2000 J/kg by this afternoon with the greatest values
in our east and into eastern MO. Weak flow over the area, due to the
upper ridge, will result in 20 to as much as 30 kts of deep layer
shear. This will be marginal for storm organization so given the
CAPE/shear combination, we should see mainly airmass type storms
with possible hail to quarter size and strong winds in the
strongest storms. Precipitable water values climb into the 1.6 to
1.9 inch range which suggest potential for heavy rainfall in any
storm that does form today - tonight.

Cooler air will settle into the area on Monday behind the front that
moves through the area. This will be aided by thick cloud cover and
continued chances for showers and few storms. Temperatures climb
back to normal for Tuesday. With light winds and cooler dew
points, the mid 70s temperatures will be quite the contrast to the
humid air mass that was over the area the last few days.
Temperatures warm back into the lower 80s Wednesday into Thursday
ahead of the next system that will affect the area Thursday night
into Friday. A shortwave will track across the Upper Midwest and
push a cold front southward through the area bringing the next
chance for showers and storms. A cooler and drier airmass settles
into the area behind that front for next weekend. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal and high pressure settling
over the area will help keep the area dry.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2023

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in
areal coverage through the afternoon hours. Expect thunderstorms
to become even more widespread this evening into the overnight,
with heavy rain possible. Ceilings are expected to lower towards
IFR, and remain there Monday morning with showers continuing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
458 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. A
couple of these storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday. No severe weather is
anticipated. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms return
near the end of the week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ021-022-029-030-141800-
Ray MO-Clinton MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
1223 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Clinton, northeastern Clay, northwestern Ray and southwestern
Caldwell Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Holt, or near Lawson, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Lawson, Lathrop, Holt and Elmira.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 26 and
45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 9440 3948 9446 3964 9423 3945 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 244DEG 7KT 3946 9432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

pp