Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

372 
WGUS73 KEAX 142350
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
650 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOC041-089-175-195-150000-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230515T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chariton MO-Howard MO-Randolph MO-Saline MO-
650 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN HOWARD, NORTHEASTERN SALINE, SOUTHEASTERN CHARITON AND 
RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3931 9303 3939 9306 3961 9236 3961 9235
      3961 9230 3960 9230 3959 9230 3958 9230
      3957 9230 3951 9230 3949 9231 3943 9231
      3942 9231 3938 9231 3937 9231 3936 9231
      3916 9291 3914 9297

$$

HB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
308 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2023

Key Points:

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with locally
  heavy rain possible.

* Additional rainfall expected on Monday, though not as heavy as
  tonight.

* Drier conditions return Tuesday.

Detailed discussion...

Upper ridge across the gulf coast is expected to weaken and sag
south tonight into Monday.  Soupy airmass in place with pwat values
exceeding 1.5" noted on OUN and TOP 12Z sounding.  With ample
diurnal surface heating today leading to 1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE,
have seen storms develop throughout the early afternoon hours most
concentrated south of weak boundary near highway 36. Wind shear is
fairly weak, so storms are struggling to organize limiting severe
potential.  Expect continued development of showers and
thunderstorms most concentrated along and south of boundary as weak
isentropic lift continues through the night. Right entrance region
of the upper level jet will remain anchored over the area, leading
to additional lift across the region. HREF output is hinting at the
potential for heavy rain along boundary between highway 36 and I-70
with the potential for 2-5". With deep warm cloud depths, slow storm
motion ~15 knots and moisture laden atmosphere, am concerned about
the potential for efficient precipitation with storms that develop,
but with dry antecedent conditions, will hold off at this time on
issuing flash flood watch for the overnight hours.

Models suggest potential for rain continues into Monday as short
wave lifts north across the central plains along the periphery of
the upper level ridge. With ample cloud cover and rain through much
of the day, have lowered forecast highs close to near 925 hpa mixout
(near 25th percentile). Once the shortwave shifts east of the area,
precipitation is expected to come to an end with cooler and drier
conditions mid week.  Potential for additional, albiet lighter,
showers and thunderstorms on Friday as stronger upper wave moves
into the Upper Midwest.  Much cooler and drier conditions are
expected on the backsider of this system next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2023

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in
areal coverage through the afternoon hours. Expect thunderstorms
to become even more widespread this evening into the overnight,
with heavy rain possible. Ceilings are expected to lower towards
IFR, and remain there Monday morning with showers continuing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
458 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. A
couple of these storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday. No severe weather is
anticipated. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms return
near the end of the week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
144 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ022-023-030-031-141915-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Livingston MO-Caldwell MO-
144 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ray,
northwestern Carroll, eastern Caldwell and southwestern Livingston
Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cowgill, or 14 miles southeast of Hamilton, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Braymer, Breckenridge, Cowgill and Ludlow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9357 3944 9385 3956 9402 3979 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 223DEG 12KT 3956 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
151 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ024-025-141915-
Macon MO-Linn MO-
151 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Linn
and northwestern Macon Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bucklin, or near Marceline, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bucklin, New Cambria and Ethel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9287 3983 9292 4001 9279 3983 9255
      3970 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 229DEG 13KT 3978 9285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
208 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ025-032-033-141945-
Macon MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-
208 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Randolph,
eastern Chariton and southeastern Macon Counties through 245 PM
CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Huntsville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Bevier, Cairo, Jacksonville and Excello.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9268 3962 9279 3979 9248 3956 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 238DEG 13KT 3956 9267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
226 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ024-025-142000-
Macon MO-Linn MO-
226 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Linn
and northwestern Macon Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bucklin, or 7 miles north of Marceline, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marceline, Bucklin, New Cambria, Ethel, New Boston and Saint
Catherine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 9294 3986 9306 4004 9280 4004 9272
      3983 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 239DEG 12KT 3983 9292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ025-142100-
Macon MO-
320 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Macon
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bevier, or near Macon, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Bevier, Callao and Excello.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9230 3961 9258 3975 9265 3989 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 243DEG 7KT 3970 9254

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

MOZ024-025-032-033-039-040-142145-
Macon MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-Linn MO-Howard MO-
339 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
Randolph, Chariton, southeastern Linn, northern Howard, northeastern
Saline and Macon Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Glasgow, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moberly, Macon, Brookfield, Marceline, Salisbury, Huntsville,
Glasgow, Bevier, Higbee, Keytesville, Bucklin, Clark, Callao, Cairo,
Armstrong, New Cambria, Renick, Jacksonville, Clifton Hill and
Rothville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9232 3925 9243 3922 9245 3918 9298
      3978 9311 3990 9283 3985 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 259DEG 9KT 3929 9289

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

pp