Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Dodge City, KS

422 
WWUS53 KDDC 100158
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
858 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC145-165-100230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-230510T0230Z/
Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
858 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES...

At 858 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ash Valley,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Timken, Ash Valley and Shaffer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 9938 3839 9940 3851 9908 3831 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 251DEG 19KT 3833 9931 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

450 
WWUS53 KDDC 100202
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
902 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC145-165-100212-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-230510T0230Z/
Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
902 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PAWNEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3826 9938 3839 9940 3851 9908 3831 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 251DEG 19KT 3834 9928 

$$

AJOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The main concern in the short term is storm chances this evening
along an outflow boundary from rain cooled air. This boundary is
still sagging southward and should stall from Hodgeman County
into Pratt County and set the stage for a few severe storms.
Initiation is also possible along the dry line west of Dodge City.
Large hail is possible with these storms. A deep upper level
trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will push into far western Kansas late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

As the upper low continues to move east, thunderstorms will
continue to develop Thursday morning and these will likely be
severe with large hail.Given the shear profile veering from
southeast at the surface to southerly and even south-
southeasterly at 500mb, any tornadoes would likely be moving
northward instead of the traditional northeastward movement. In
the afternoon, the upper level cold pool will be in place and
overspread the moist layer, leading to another round of
thunderstorms, some severe and possibly tornadic. The corridor
most favored for severe storms in the early afternoon runs from
Meade County northwestward to Kearny, Finney and Scott Counties.

After Thursday, it appears a weak upper low is still advertised to
move northward out of the tropics across the southern high
plains, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. These
should be mostly sub-severe to marginally severe given the lack
of vertical shear in a tropical environment. How far north this
precipitation gets is still in question as most of the models and
their ensembles keep the heaviest rain to the south and west. But
there is some potential for heavy rain across western Kansas
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will generally stay warm
through the period; but if rain materializes during the day
Sunday, then afternoon readings could be only be in the 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Radar imagery at 2140z depicted an intense supercell thunderstorm
near Larned, an outflow boundary westward to near Scott City, and
a dryline between DDC/GCK. Additional isolated convection is
expected this evening on these boundaries, but coverage will be
isolated, and as such kept the TAFs dry. Outside of convection,
elevated southeast winds will continue through 12z Wed. Included
LLWS in all TAFs after 06z Wed with a strong low level jet
expected. Consensus of short term models suggests IFR stratus at
HYS after 09z Wed, and this trend was accepted in the TAFs. VFR is
expected to prevail elsewhere through Wednesday. 18z NAM and
12z ARW both indicate the next round of scattered convection near
GCK/LBL after 21z Wed, and included VCTS/CB near the end of those
TAF periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  85  59  83 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  60  86  58  80 /  10  50  40  30
EHA  59  85  55  83 /  10  60  60  10
LBL  61  87  57  84 /  10  40  40  20
HYS  60  82  59  78 /  40  20  40  70
P28  62  85  61  80 /  40  20  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 /1233 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms, should they develop, will be possible. Very large
hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds are the main threats. There
is also a very small but non zero threat for an isolated tornado. The
best area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight should be mainly
east of Highway 283.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across southwest Kansas Wednesday
and Thursday. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. At this time
it appears that the main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.
A slightly more robust threat may exist Thursday with tornadoes possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
818 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ045-100145-
Ness KS-
818 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Ness
County through 845 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bazine, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bazine around 830 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 9982 3845 9989 3858 9959 3839 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 247DEG 17KT 3843 9975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
823 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             ROZEL                   38.20N 99.40W
05/09/2023  E1.25 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
832 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             3 S BAZINE              38.41N 99.70W
05/09/2023  E1.25 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
836 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE DODGE CITY        37.77N 99.97W
05/09/2023  M58 MPH          FORD               KS   ASOS

&&

LEE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
839 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ045-046-100215-
Rush KS-Ness KS-
839 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ness
and west central Rush Counties through 915 PM CDT...

At 839 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bazine, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail. Accumulating hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Hail may
         accumulate on roadways causing hazardous travel and reduced
         visibility owing to hail fog.

Locations impacted include...
  McCracken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9942 3841 9982 3852 9986 3870 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 236DEG 23KT 3851 9975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
844 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             NESS CITY               38.46N 99.91W
05/09/2023  E1.25 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

            PHOTO ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR