Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

394 
WGUS73 KDDC 100316
FFSDDC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1016 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC135-145-165-100326-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230510T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ness KS-Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
1016 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN RUSH, 
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3826 9964 3835 9961 3841 9952 3843 9939
      3840 9926 3829 9921 3824 9924 3819 9940
      3821 9954 3823 9957 3826 9957 3826 9958

$$

AJOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The main concern in the short term is storm chances this evening
along an outflow boundary from rain cooled air. This boundary is
still sagging southward and should stall from Hodgeman County
into Pratt County and set the stage for a few severe storms.
Initiation is also possible along the dry line west of Dodge City.
Large hail is possible with these storms. A deep upper level
trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will push into far western Kansas late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

As the upper low continues to move east, thunderstorms will
continue to develop Thursday morning and these will likely be
severe with large hail.Given the shear profile veering from
southeast at the surface to southerly and even south-
southeasterly at 500mb, any tornadoes would likely be moving
northward instead of the traditional northeastward movement. In
the afternoon, the upper level cold pool will be in place and
overspread the moist layer, leading to another round of
thunderstorms, some severe and possibly tornadic. The corridor
most favored for severe storms in the early afternoon runs from
Meade County northwestward to Kearny, Finney and Scott Counties.

After Thursday, it appears a weak upper low is still advertised to
move northward out of the tropics across the southern high
plains, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. These
should be mostly sub-severe to marginally severe given the lack
of vertical shear in a tropical environment. How far north this
precipitation gets is still in question as most of the models and
their ensembles keep the heaviest rain to the south and west. But
there is some potential for heavy rain across western Kansas
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will generally stay warm
through the period; but if rain materializes during the day
Sunday, then afternoon readings could be only be in the 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Radar imagery at 2140z depicted an intense supercell thunderstorm
near Larned, an outflow boundary westward to near Scott City, and
a dryline between DDC/GCK. Additional isolated convection is
expected this evening on these boundaries, but coverage will be
isolated, and as such kept the TAFs dry. Outside of convection,
elevated southeast winds will continue through 12z Wed. Included
LLWS in all TAFs after 06z Wed with a strong low level jet
expected. Consensus of short term models suggests IFR stratus at
HYS after 09z Wed, and this trend was accepted in the TAFs. VFR is
expected to prevail elsewhere through Wednesday. 18z NAM and
12z ARW both indicate the next round of scattered convection near
GCK/LBL after 21z Wed, and included VCTS/CB near the end of those
TAF periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  85  59  83 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  60  86  58  80 /  10  50  40  30
EHA  59  85  55  83 /  10  60  60  10
LBL  61  87  57  84 /  10  40  40  20
HYS  60  82  59  78 /  40  20  40  70
P28  62  85  61  80 /  40  20  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 /1233 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms, should they develop, will be possible. Very large
hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds are the main threats. There
is also a very small but non zero threat for an isolated tornado. The
best area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight should be mainly
east of Highway 283.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across southwest Kansas Wednesday
and Thursday. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. At this time
it appears that the main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.
A slightly more robust threat may exist Thursday with tornadoes possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
736 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ045-064-100100-
Hodgeman KS-Ness KS-
736 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ness
and north central Hodgeman Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 736 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Ness City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bazine around 755 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9998 3839 10000 3858 9959 3829 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 242DEG 29KT 3835 9987

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
745 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             PRATT                   37.65N 98.74W
05/09/2023  E1.50 INCH       PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
746 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             4 NNE BURDETT           38.25N 99.51W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             6 N GRAY                38.25N 99.64W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL WAS PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
749 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             5 NNW LARNED            38.25N 99.13W
05/09/2023  E1.50 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             LEWIS                   37.94N 99.26W
05/09/2023  E1.50 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   PUBLIC

            THIS REPORT WAS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

LEE