Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 9, 2023Pawnee County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 9, 2023, 8:12 PM CDT for Pawnee County, Kansas. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2023, 8:12 PM CDT (01:12 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2023, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Pawnee County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 918 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2805 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

829 
WUUS53 KDDC 100112
SVRDDC
KSC145-100200-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0039.230510T0112Z-230510T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
812 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Pawnee County in south central Kansas...

* Until 900 PM CDT.

* At 812 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sanford,
  moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Ash Valley and Frizell around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Larned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 9941 3828 9940 3832 9903 3813 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 267DEG 18KT 3822 9931 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

3 follow-up statements

970 
WWUS53 KDDC 100129
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
829 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC145-100200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-230510T0200Z/
Pawnee KS-
829 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTY...

At 828 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Frizell, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
  Larned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 9932 3829 9935 3832 9903 3813 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 267DEG 18KT 3822 9920 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

304 
WWUS53 KDDC 100136
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
836 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC145-100200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-230510T0200Z/
Pawnee KS-
836 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY...

At 836 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Larned, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Larned, Ash Valley and Frizell. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 9923 3830 9929 3832 9903 3813 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 267DEG 18KT 3822 9915 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

835 
WWUS53 KDDC 100149
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
849 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSC145-100200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-230510T0200Z/
Pawnee KS-
849 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY...

At 849 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Larned, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Larned and Frizell. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 9923 3830 9919 3832 9903 3813 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 267DEG 18KT 3822 9907 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

AJOHNSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 9, 4:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 4:47 PM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The main concern in the short term is storm chances this evening
along an outflow boundary from rain cooled air. This boundary is
still sagging southward and should stall from Hodgeman County
into Pratt County and set the stage for a few severe storms.
Initiation is also possible along the dry line west of Dodge City.
Large hail is possible with these storms. A deep upper level
trough will approach the high plains Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will push into far western Kansas late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

As the upper low continues to move east, thunderstorms will
continue to develop Thursday morning and these will likely be
severe with large hail.Given the shear profile veering from
southeast at the surface to southerly and even south-
southeasterly at 500mb, any tornadoes would likely be moving
northward instead of the traditional northeastward movement. In
the afternoon, the upper level cold pool will be in place and
overspread the moist layer, leading to another round of
thunderstorms, some severe and possibly tornadic. The corridor
most favored for severe storms in the early afternoon runs from
Meade County northwestward to Kearny, Finney and Scott Counties.

After Thursday, it appears a weak upper low is still advertised to
move northward out of the tropics across the southern high
plains, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. These
should be mostly sub-severe to marginally severe given the lack
of vertical shear in a tropical environment. How far north this
precipitation gets is still in question as most of the models and
their ensembles keep the heaviest rain to the south and west. But
there is some potential for heavy rain across western Kansas
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will generally stay warm
through the period; but if rain materializes during the day
Sunday, then afternoon readings could be only be in the 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Radar imagery at 2140z depicted an intense supercell thunderstorm
near Larned, an outflow boundary westward to near Scott City, and
a dryline between DDC/GCK. Additional isolated convection is
expected this evening on these boundaries, but coverage will be
isolated, and as such kept the TAFs dry. Outside of convection,
elevated southeast winds will continue through 12z Wed. Included
LLWS in all TAFs after 06z Wed with a strong low level jet
expected. Consensus of short term models suggests IFR stratus at
HYS after 09z Wed, and this trend was accepted in the TAFs. VFR is
expected to prevail elsewhere through Wednesday. 18z NAM and
12z ARW both indicate the next round of scattered convection near
GCK/LBL after 21z Wed, and included VCTS/CB near the end of those
TAF periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  85  59  83 /  20  20  30  50
GCK  60  86  58  80 /  10  50  40  30
EHA  59  85  55  83 /  10  60  60  10
LBL  61  87  57  84 /  10  40  40  20
HYS  60  82  59  78 /  40  20  40  70
P28  62  85  61  80 /  40  20  30  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 1:33 AM CDT, 18 hours 39 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
133 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 /1233 AM MDT Tue May 9 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms, should they develop, will be possible. Very large
hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds are the main threats. There
is also a very small but non zero threat for an isolated tornado. The
best area for severe thunderstorms today and tonight should be mainly
east of Highway 283.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across southwest Kansas Wednesday
and Thursday. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. At this time
it appears that the main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.
A slightly more robust threat may exist Thursday with tornadoes possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 7:49 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
749 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             5 NNW LARNED            38.25N 99.13W
05/09/2023  E1.50 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

Local storm report, May 9, 7:56 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             LEWIS                   37.94N 99.26W
05/09/2023  E1.50 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   PUBLIC

            THIS REPORT WAS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

LEE

Local storm report, May 9, 8:00 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
800 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             PRATT                   37.65N 98.73W
05/09/2023  E1.25 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

Local storm report, May 9, 8:05 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
805 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             5 SE PRATT              37.60N 98.67W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

Special weather statement, May 9, 8:10 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
810 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ045-100145-
Ness KS-
810 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ness
County through 845 PM CDT...

At 810 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bazine, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bazine around 820 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9983 3846 9986 3855 9959 3836 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 257DEG 20KT 3843 9976

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

AJOHNSON

Local storm report, May 9, 8:11 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
811 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             MACKSVILLE              37.96N 98.97W
05/09/2023  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            ACCUMULATING HAIL. DIMES TO QUARTERS.

&&

MR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Rush	39 min
May 9, 7:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Pawnee, Stafford	52 min
May 9, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Barber, Pratt	65 min
May 9, 7:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pawnee	29 min
May 9, 7:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ness	24 min
May 9, 7:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee	36 min
May 9, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee	24 min
May 9, 7:57 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DDC	Ness, Pawnee, Rush	2 hr
May 9, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Pawnee, Stafford	47 min
May 9, 8:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ness	35 min
May 9, 8:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ness	27 min
May 9, 8:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ness	36 min
May 9, 8:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ness, Rush	48 min
May 9, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DDC	Pawnee, Rush	17 min
May 9, 8:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Stafford	39 min
May 9, 9:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stafford	27 min
May 9, 9:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	25 min
May 9, 10:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Stafford	25 min
May 9, 10:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Trego	33 min
May 10, 4:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hamilton	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.