Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...Updated Mesoscale...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

MCS generation appears to be underway across SE Colorado
as of 640 pm, with outflow from various updrafts gradually
consolidating. In fact, radar and visible satellite imagery
indicate lift increasing rapidly along the CO/KS border, with an
altocumulus deck and midlevel based showers. The thinking is
convective updrafts may try to "leap frog" eastward further into
Kansas rather quickly through 8 pm, as storms find the strong
instability axis from roughly Ulysses eastward (MLCAPE near 4000
J/kg). Once initiated, strong instability and bulk shear > 40 kts
will promote rotating updrafts with any discrete development, or
alternatively, encourage the developing MCS to remain severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Midday surface observations show impressively humid air over
SW KS, with dewpoints 70-75 at all reporting sites in the
DDC CWA. Pratt reported a dewpoint of 77 at 1135 am, and the
dewpoint has touched 75 here at DDC over the last hour. Morning
stratus was clearing rapidly, with strong insolation already
building instability rapidly, particularly southwest zones.
Capping is still quite strong, with warm 700 mb temperatures (and
the lack of a triggering mechanism) expected to prohibit
convective initiation through 7 pm. While air temperatures are
several degrees cooler, dewpoints in the 70s will still make it
very uncomfortable this afternoon. Issued a heat advisory for
Barber county for this afternoon, where heat index of >105 is
expected.

Around 7 pm, 12z ARW solution appears reasonable, showing
scattered convection just northwest of the CWA, across WFO
Goodland's zones. High confidence that a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) will evolve this evening and move southeastward to
Oklahoma, but the exact track varies some in the guidance.
Consensus and the ARW suggest the southwest 1/2 of the CWA will be
favored. The developing MCS will be directed toward the greatest
instability, and with mesoanalysis showing CAPE building
aggressively west of DDC at midday, this solution may be on to
something. Increased pops tonight across the western and then
southern CWA, along the projected MCS track. At least marginally
severe wind and hail is expected across western counties this
evening, per 5-15% SPC wind/hail probability. The MCS is expected
to exit the southeast zones around sunrise Thursday.

Most of daylight Thursday will be dry for most zones. Models show
about 2-4C of cooling over Wednesday, which will knock air
temperatures back to the 88-92 range by 5 pm. However, moisture
content will be very high, with dewpoints in the 65-75 range,
driving up both heat indices and instability. 12z NAM shows strong
moisture advection from the surface to 850 mb Thursday afternoon,
with widespread CAPE >3000 J/kg and precipitable water closing in
on 2.0 inches. 12z NAM/ARW are the strongest guidance suggestive
of a high-end severe MCS Thursday evening/night, with the ARW
favoring the SW 1/2 of the DDC CWA, and the NAM taking a more
direct aim on SW KS. Further support for these strong solutions is
offered by 12z FV3, which also shows a severe MCS across western
zones Thursday evening. Tonight's convective outcome and
resultant outflows will have an impact on Thursday's event, so
specific track details will not be known until Thursday. Still,
pattern recognition with high instablity and moisture availability
along the baroclinic zone strongly suggests a progressive severe
MCS, and per coordination with SPC, an upgrade in severe wind
probability is being considered. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are
expected, whereever the apex of the bow echos set up. In terms of
hydrology, the MCS is expected to be progressive enough to help
limit the residence time of heavy rain in any one location. That
said, rainfall rates are expected to be very intense given the
exceptionally moist inflow, and rain amounts of 1-2 inches are
expected to be common despite the forward momentum. Rain rates will
overwhelm drainage in some areas, with at least some hydrology
products probable. Increased pop grids to 90% coverage Thursday
night, and included both heavy rain and damaging wind wording in the
forecast grids (damaging winds west, heavy rain all zones).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

-A long dry stretch is evident, and the entire long term forecast
 through Wednesday 26 July is dry for all of SW KS.

-Mild afternoon temperatures well below normal will be enjoyed
 Friday.

-Afternoon heat builds aggressively early next week.

Thursday night's expected MCS is still expected to assist a cold
front passage across SW KS, with MCS outflow combining with the
northerly pressure gradients to push the effective baroclinic
boundary to near I-40 by sunrise Friday. It may take some time for
the expected large MCS to clear SW KS, so kept some pops in for
Friday morning. Model guidance remains consistent with the mildest
temperatures of the forecast on Friday, with many locations
remaining in the 70s through the afternoon. This represents a
significant departure from normal for July, with some locations
averaging about 15 degrees below normal.

The coolest morning of the forecast will be Saturday morning, with
1020 mb surface high pressure settling over the plains allowing
for upper 50s and lower 60s at sunrise.

Of course, breaks from the heat do not last long in July. The
strong "heat dome" subtropical midlevel anticyclone over the Great
Basin Saturday, is consistently modelled by all guidance to build
its influence gradually eastward onto the plains for the remainder
of the forecast period. Heights, thickness and 850 mb temperatures
will gradually climb, supporting building heat in the afternoons,
and strong subsidence will eliminate any chances of rainfall. As
of now, NBM and ensembles suggest basically typical July heat next
week, with afternoon highs within a few degrees of 100 by
Wednesday. These temperature trends were accepted, given green
vegetation will continue to work against higher triple digit heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Outside of convective impacts, VFR is forecast to continue through
this TAF cycle. Radar and satellite imagery at 22z indicated
severe thunderstorms developing from eastern Colorado to northeast
New Mexico. Convection is expected to move southeast across SW KS
through tonight, but models continue to disagree on exact
placement and timing, so continued to insert VCTS/CB in the
03-06z Thu time range. Thunderstorms are expected to be southeast
of the airports by 12z Thu. VFR is expected daylight Thursday, and
the airports will be dry, with variable amounts of midlevel
clouds. A strong to severe MCS is expected just after this TAF
period, during the 00-12z Fri time range, which will impact
aviation operations with convective TEMPO groups expected. Outside
of convective outflows, winds will be light and variable in
direction through this TAF period, generally less than 12 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  90  63  79 /  70  10  90  20
GCK  68  88  62  78 /  80  20  90  20
EHA  66  88  62  77 /  80  20  90  20
LBL  68  89  64  78 /  80  10  90  20
HYS  68  90  63  82 /  40  20  90  30
P28  73  91  66  80 /  50  10  80  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.

&&

MESOSCALE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
334 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023 /234 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Limited excessive heat risk this afternoon across most of the
area. Heat exhaustion is possible with prolonged exposure.

Scattered thunderstorms capable of 2 inch diameter hail and
damaging wind may move in from Colorado after 7 pm CDT, spreading
eastward through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another round of severe weather producing thunderstorms is
expected Thursday evening, with a more significant severe wind
risk. Damaging winds in excess of 75 mph are favored in the areas
along and south of highway 400 Thursday evening. Scattered flash
floods are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected Today or Tonight, however
hail, wind and damage reports would be appreciated.

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