Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Currently, there is some light showers and isolated thunderstorms across
NW Kansas. This activity is the most immediate short term concern and
would have little impacts overall and only impact the NW zones. Otherwise,
the main rain event is for mid to late evening tonight. Our 12Z RAOB
measured a PWAT of 1.55". This is above normal for the time of year.
By this evening, the forecast PWAT is expected to be in the 1.25 to
1.75" range. We are dealing with a very moist atmosphere and the QPF
amounts we have forecast bears this out. For storms, afternoon thunderstorms
will develop along the higher terrain of Colorado. This activity will
eventually shift SE as the evening wears on and should push across
the Kansas prairie later this evening. The best timing of this activity
is 6 pm to midnight. The main two threats are damaging convective outflows
of 60+ mph and very heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible.
Amounts of 1-3" will be possible for at least half of the FA. Have
expanded the Flood Watch farther east to account for this possible
evolution. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5" inches cannot be ruled out either
in more isolated spots. Have the highest of confidence in our western
zones for heavy rainfall. Storms will quickly move out of the FA during
the early morning hours. This is our last shot at precipitation for
a while, so hopefully most of you see some good amounts with preferably
less severe storms. Again, damaging winds is a distinct possibility
as this MCS rolls across the Kansas plain. For Saturday, the atmosphere
will have been worked over. Not expecting any storms in the wake of
the MCS. Highs tomorrow will be extremely pleasant with values in the
upper 70s. Get out and enjoy the highs because Summer and its ugly
high temperatures rears its head for the rest of the extended period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

The rest of the extended period with be hot and dry. Sunday will be
the transition day with highs in the 80s. Monday and beyond, 90s will
prevail. A 597 dm high will plant itself across the greater region
and will be the impetus for the hot weather. Storm chances looks nil
as the anticyclone continues. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
with a few 100s degree readings possible as well. Lows are expected
to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints are not forecast
to be as high as they have been, so there are no slam dunk heat headlines
that are obvious for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

As of 23Z a line of thunderstorms is currently affecting the DDC
airport with wind gust potential of 50 kts or greater coming in
through 2330Z. The next line of storms has developed in Colorado
and will be entering western Kansas after 01Z and affecting the
GCK, LBL, and HYS terminals between 02-07Z and the DDC terminal
03-08Z. Main threat with these storms will be heavy rain and
strong damaging wind which could once again be as high as 50 kts
and surface visibilities reduced to below 2SM at the peak of the
strongest part of the storms. Most of the thunderstorm threat
should be finished by 09Z and we will be left with post storm
lower clouds through 18Z which could leave MVFR flight conditions.
Then we should see VFR flight categories from 18Z-00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  80  61  87 /  90  20   0   0
GCK  62  77  59  87 /  90  20   0   0
EHA  62  76  59  88 /  80  20  10   0
LBL  64  77  60  88 /  90  20  10   0
HYS  62  82  61  89 /  90  20   0   0
P28  66  80  63  87 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ Friday for KSZ030-043>045-
061>064-074>080-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 /155 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely to roll across southwest KS
tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, however an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Dodge City         37.79N 100.04W
07/20/2023  E70 MPH          Ford               KS   Trained Spotter

&&

GT