Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

404 
WWUS43 KAPX 311922
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MIZ086>088-095>097-010330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.230401T0600Z-230401T1800Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
322 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with 
  localized amounts up to 18 inches across western Chippewa 
  County. Ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-098-010330-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.230401T0600Z-230401T1800Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
and St. James
322 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Mainly the northern portions of Emmet, Cheboygan and 
  Presque Isle Counties, and Beaver Island and surrounding 
  islands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

964 
WWUS43 KAPX 010204
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1004 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MIZ086>088-095>097-011015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.230401T0600Z-230401T1800Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1004 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 18 inches and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-098-011015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.230401T0600Z-230401T1800Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
and St. James
1004 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Presque Isle Counties, and Beaver 
  Island and surrounding islands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

339 
WWUS43 KAPX 010809
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

MIZ086>088-095>097-011615-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts to
  18 inches. Ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Wet, dense
  nature of snow combined with strong winds could lead to isolated 
  power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-098-011615-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
and St. James
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Presque Isle Counties, and Beaver 
  Island and surrounding islands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

506 
WWUS43 KAPX 011506
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1106 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

MIZ086>088-095>097-011800-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1106 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-098-011800-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
and St. James
1106 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet, Cheboygan and Presque Isle Counties, and Beaver 
  Island and surrounding islands.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
602 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...High...impactful snow potential
tonight.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Increasing southwesterly flow aloft into a tightening and
increasingly E-W oriented confluence zone to our north across
southern Canada...as ridging across the SE US butts up against a
northern stream trough sliding into James Bay as of 2z/31. 120+kt
upper level jet lifting across the region attm. Meanwhile...broad
and slightly anomalous troughing centered over the Rockies continues
to slowly churn eastward...dragging its influence into the central
US. Note a handful of more potent niblets in the flow on the
downstream side of the trough, per WV imagery...one over KS, another
over central NE (potentially convectively driven?), and yet another
poking into MN/WI...as moisture spreads northward into the Upper
Midwest. Abundance of weaker stability over the central US, denoted
by mid-level lapse rates approaching the dry adiabatic lapse rate.
Plume of anomalous moisture (pwats over 1-1.5 inches) flooding
northward from the Gulf in advance of the trough (LLJ over the
Plains strengthening to 50+kts as of 0z/31)...with a stout moisture
gradient developing over our region (0z/31 RAOB pwats of 0.55 at
GRB, 0.45 at DTX, 0.18 at APX) as the incoming moisture interacts
with the antecedent anomalously dry air mass. Complex national
surface analysis at 0z...with a warm front lifting northward out of
the Mid MS Valley...dryline over the western/central Plains, ahead
of a cold front near the base of the trough aloft in the desert
SW...and a handful of low pressure centers over the central
Plains...with col region developing along the international border
as cold front related to James Bay niblet becomes elongated/spread
out with time. Already seeing a wing of precip lift north into the
Upper Great Lakes north of the warm front as of 2z...with some
convective activity back to the west/southwest across the Plains and
Mid MS Valley.

Midnight surface analysis shows an E-W oriented warm front poised
just to our southwest...from northern Nebraska eastward into
northern IL/southern Lake MI...more or less in the vicinity of the
plume of at-or-above freezing dewpoints...with temps in the 60s at
this hour south of the front. Meanwhile...north of the front...temps
in the 20s and 30s. Do note an area of weak flow (col region) to our
northwest over southern Ontario, in the vicinity of what's left of a
weak front from earlier in the day (with that James Bay
system)...with surface high pressure to its northwest, and surface
high pressure to our southeast over the Mid-Atlantic now. Most of
the region, especially to our west/south, has started to moisten
up...though, per pwat analysis mentioned earlier...dry air still
holding on across interior northern Lower attm, despite strong warm
advection into the region...though more favorable synoptic forcing
from the jet to our northeast is likely further aiding in
saturation...and not surprised to see a wing of precip along and
north of the front slipping northeastward into the region attm.
Activity is largely stratiform, though do note some heavier bands as
fgen develops/increases in our region...and noting presence of
weaker stability upstream, largely along and south of the area of
precip...not surprised to see some slightly more convective elements
developing along the southern edge of this warm advection wing of
precip. Additionally...have some suspicions some radar returns may
be bright-banding, though wouldn't be surprised to see some heavier
precip rates beneath those areas regardless...and have the sneaking
suspicion there may be some gravity wave activity helping to
intensify the banding over NW Lower. These heavier precip
rates, in combination with dewpoint depressions in the 10-15+ degree
range over parts of the area...particularly, interior northern
Lower...likely aiding in evaporative cooling and precip beginning as
snow in a few areas...including our office and TVC; even starting to
accumulate on some colder surfaces here at the office as of 1am,
while it has transitioned to rain at TVC, and remained rain in some
areas. Some sites upstream in WI have been reporting a mixed
bag...will see how much this impacts us, as it appears the 0C line
at 850mb is just beginning to creep into the CWA as of 3z...but most
of northern Lower appears to be at or above freezing as of 5z.

Warm advection wing of precip should continue to lift through
the area this morning...as warm front lifts northward into Lower
Michigan. Expect troughing across the western US to take on a
negative tilt with time Friday into early Saturday as a progressive
niblet swings around the base of the trough. This should occur over
the Upper MS Valley...leaving parts of the Upper Great Lakes,
including Northern Michigan, highly favored for a second round of
synoptic forcing...as a tightly-wound surface system crosses the
region Friday night into Saturday.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  Precip types/timing with the first round
this morning...and second round later this evening/tonight.

Complex forecast evolving attm. As of 5/6z...watching some returns
on radar that are more or less transverse to the main fgen band
overspread northern Lower attm...and as mentioned above, have
suspicions these may be gravity waves, as they appear to be related
to flare-ups in returns over northwest lower. Assuming this is the
case, it should only serve to further complicate the forecast for
this morning, as these may not be terribly well handled by model
guidance. Additionally, I suspect dry slot to our southwest will
only fill in with time, as we are currently seeing, as more of a
convective feel takes over down that way. With HTL currently
reporting FZRA...will be worth keeping an eye on, as some guidance
derived soundings may be a smidge too aggressive with moisture
return into the area.

Attm...guidance seems to be more or less on track with bringing the
warm front northward into the SW portion of the CWA by daybreak.
This should send the initial push of frontogenetic activity
northward...but as the surface low to our southwest intensifies,
will look for additional fgen to develop in the vicinity/to our west
today...with signals for a second warm front to lift northward into
southern Lower MI later today/tonight. Will have to keep an eye on
this going forward, depending on how far north the warm front gets,
as there is potential for some surface based CAPE to develop ahead
of the surface cold front...and could be worth keeping an eye on for
purposes of convection/thunder. Will have to monitor potential for
embedded thunder even this morning as some elevated instability may
try to sneak into the region yet...especially along and south of M-
72...noting some potential for a bit of MUCAPE. 0C line at 850mb may
remain across the EUP through the day today, which will bear
watching with regard to p-type. Will carry some potential for a
wintry mix this afternoon...and do have concerns we may end up a
little bit cooler at the surface than currently anticipated, which
could indicate potential for freezing rain...but will have to
monitor this closely today.

Suspect things may be largely dreary through the day today,
particularly across northern Lower, where temps should be largely
warm enough (except perhaps for the Tip of the Mitt and maybe parts
of the interior higher terrain(?)) to support primarily rain.
Additionally...with suggestions of some mid-level dry air slipping
through the region...may end up rather drizzly...though weaker
stability aloft will be slipping into the area as well. That being
said...if the warm front ends up in a different location than
expected...this could shift things one way or another.

Things should become more active later today into tonight...as the
niblet swings around the base of the trough, increasing potential
for synoptic ascent and fgen in a setup already highly favorable for
forcing (warm advection and potential jet coupling)...as surface
system begins to occlude just to our west. This is when the next
slug of deep moisture makes its way into the region...when a much
stronger meridional LLJ approaches the area. For now...the strongest
portion of this jet looks to remain to our south...but will be
something to keep an eye on...particularly as dry slotting pushing
into the region this evening/tonight could introduce additional
convective instability across the southern half of the CWA.

Overnight tonight...will be watching that deformation band swing
down into the region from the northwest behind the surface low as it
begins to depart. For now...looks as though this should set up
across the EUP...where guidance suggests in excess of a foot is still
possible. Not out of the question there could be some areas across
the eastern UP that see a little freezing rain or sleet, as warm air
will be wrapping around the northeast side of the low...but the main
focus should be on the wet, dense snow...with SLRs likely close to
10 to 1 or lower. Will have to keep an eye on this...as this looks
like a pretty tight gradient with this snowband, so wherever it ends
up will get dumped on...and given some uncertainty yet in where the
best forcing may end up...have opted to hold onto the watch for now
in collaboration with MQT.

Despite the wet, dense consistency of the snow...strengthening winds
tonight into Saturday morning may yet support blowing and drifting
of snow. Increasing pressure gradient on the northern side of this
system supportive of sustained winds in the 20+kt range across the
EUP, with much lighter winds anticipated over the bulk of northern
Lower, particularly wherever the low tracks. As cold advection
increases, will anticipate wind gusts should strengthen as well late
tonight, potentially reaching gale force toward morning...though do
have concerns winds/gusts may not be quite as enhanced due to some
potential for unfavorable isallobaric impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Heavy snow and strong winds likely to
continue Saturday morning across eastern upper Michigan. Relatively
short period of snow expected across northern lower Saturday, along
with falling temperatures & gusty winds.

Pattern Forecast: By Saturday morning, well-advertised closed upper
wave is expected to be situated across the western Great
Lakes...sandwiched between ridging off the East Coast and across the
central Plains. Attendant ~987mb surface low pressure will be
following suite across the same general area...gradually beginning
to fill with time through the day Saturday. Primary focus will
revolve around the departure of this low pressure and associated
wintry weather, strong winds and falling temperatures.

By Saturday night, much more tranquil conditions are expected to
prevail across the Northwoods as the aforementioned system is well
off to our east, replaced by low amplitude mid-level ridging and
accompanying surface high pressure. By late Sunday, focus
transitions to a northern stream clipper encroaching on the region,
potentially bringing additional scattered precipitation.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow, strong winds and falling
temperatures Saturday. Chilly overnight low temperatures Saturday
night.

At the start of the period Saturday morning, expecting essentially
two nearly separate low pressure centers to exist across the Great
Lakes region. One north of Lake Ontario and a second across northern
lower Michigan...both slowly filling with time and eventually
congealing well off to our east Saturday afternoon. Latest trends
support dry slotting across much of northern lower MI early Saturday
morning (although some spotty light precip/drizzle can't be ruled
out) with more widespread deformation precipitation continuing over
eastern upper given much more impressive deep layer forcing and
anomalous moisture continuing to wrap around the backside of this
system. While the expectation is that snow will be the primary
precipitation type north of the bridge by this time, a very tight
thermal gradient will continue to be very sensitive to this system's
track and resultant dominant p-type. Winds across eastern upper
during this Saturday morning time frame will be in the process of
backing more northerly, likely becoming sustained 20-30 mph with
localized gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Latest trends support an
additional 2-6" of snow accumulation from 12-18z Saturday, and given
what has the potential to be a several hour period into mid-late
Saturday morning of heavy snowfall, strong winds and increasing
SLRs...would not be surprised if at least brief blizzard conditions
were realized with dangerous/discouraged travel and isolated power
outages possible. Even some whiteouts remain possible into Saturday
afternoon after snow ends given those continued strong winds.

Across northern lower, expecting that deformation axis to slowly
pivot northwest to southeast across the area by mid Saturday morning
before clearing entirely by mid Saturday afternoon. Initial mixed
light rain/drizzle/freezing drizzle should largely turn to a
generally brief period of snow at any one location during this time
frame given strong cold advection on the heels of the gusty winds
alluded to above. That said, that brief window of snow could come
down fairly heavy for a time leaving a quick accumulation and
hazardous travel conditions with low visibilities and blowing snow.
Strongest winds across northern lower on Saturday expected to be
focused west of US-131...again with gusts topping out as strong as
40-50 mph. Somewhat lesser gusts inland, but still noteworthy with
in the 30-40 mph range. Don't foresee a reason that at least a few
power outages won't be possible south of the bridge as well.

By mid-late afternoon Saturday, expect that all impactful precip will
be well off to our east as mid-level ridging and attendant surface
high pressure begin to arrive from the west. Even some late day sun
seems feasible across much of the area. This all sets the stage for
a chilly early April Saturday night/Sunday morning as high pressure
gradually centers overhead allowing winds to become *much* lighter
with continued mainly clear skies. Some hints that high clouds may
try to arrive pre-dawn Sunday, but if this comes together just
right, calm winds/clear skies and a fresh layer of snow (at a
minimum) for many should lead to a period of impressive radiational
cooling and low temperatures tanking into the single digits and
teens inland. Low temp records for April 2nd that *may* be in
jeopardy are GLR with a record low of 10 in 2018 and ANJ at 7 in
1954. Other records at surrounding locations are significantly
colder than those two.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now, although watching
midweek system.

The period starts off with some rather nuisance precip issues
locally as a clipper system treks along the international border
Sunday evening before propelling into western Quebec Monday morning.
Some light rain/snow showers not out of the question, especially far
north. Attention then transitions to the midweek time frame as
latest ensemble trends point toward another robust area of low
pressure developing lee of the Rockies and trekking north/northeast
into the upper MS Valley on Wednesday. Initially, northern Michigan
would by and large be on the warm side of the system, although worth
monitoring for a window of initial mixed precip on the front end
late Tuesday. Lots of uncertainties prevail through this time frame,
but wet/windy and potentially mild and stormy weather all certainly
possible with a push of colder temperatures and potentially...wait
for it...more snow possible as this system exits late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 602 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A couple broad areas of precipitation slipping through the area this
morning...one making its way ENE through the EUP and NE Lower
Michigan (KCIU, KPLN, KAPN)...and another just moving into KMBL,
KTVC as of 9z/31...along and north of a warm front. This second
batch has some thunder, which could encroach on the southernmost TAF
sites this morning. Once this second batch moves
through...anticipate quieter conditions as the front stalls over
northern Lower Michigan...with another round this afternoon into
tonight as the low pressure system tracks through northern Michigan.
Watch for some wind shear at or above 2000ft AGL today into this
evening. Another round of heavier snow expected, especially toward
KCIU and perhaps KPLN late tonight on the backside of the system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Strong late season storm beginning to impinge on the Upper Great
Lakes this morning. A warm front will continue to lift into the area
today, with easterly winds north of it...and largely southerly winds
south of it. Periods of heavier rain/snow and/or freezing rain are
possible this morning...with a bit of a break possible particularly
over the Lake Michigan and Huron nearshore waters during the day.
Another round is expected later this evening as the system
occludes to our west and begins to cross into northern Michigan.
Current expected track of the low, along/beneath which winds will be
lighter, is across the knuckles of the state (largely Frankfort-ish
to Alpena-ish, with some variability still possible). Some thunder
is possible later today into tonight. Focus then turns to
intensifying N/NE winds on the backside of the system late tonight
into Saturday...with gales expected, and some storm force gusts not
entirely out of the question at times. These should begin to
diminish from west to east with time late Saturday as the system
pulls away.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon
     for MIZ086>088-095>097.
LH...Gale Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>347.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ348-349.
LM...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ341-342.
LS...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...FEF
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
MARINE...FEF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
419 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-010830-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
419 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Wintry precipitation remains possible across parts of the area
this morning, especially along and north of M-32. This should
transition to rain this morning in most areas south of the
Bridge. Rainfall in combination with snowmelt could lead to areas
of localized flooding.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern Lower
Michigan this afternoon into tonight.

A period of heavy snowfall is also expected tonight, primarily
across the eastern U.P. Strong winds will further deteriorate
hazardous driving conditions. See ongoing Winter Storm Watch for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional heavy snow is expected across eastern upper Michigan
Saturday morning. Snow combined with strong winds will create
dangerous driving conditions and may lead to isolated power outages.
See ongoing Winter Storm Watch for details.

Precipitation is expected to change to a period of all snow across
northern Lower Michigan Saturday...along with gusty winds and
temperatures falling below freezing.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern lower
Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall and snowfall amounts
to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three
ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-010830-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
419 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gale force wind gusts are expected to develop tonight. See ongoing
Gale Warning for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force wind gusts are expected to continue into Saturday
afternoon. See ongoing Gale Warning for details.