Storm Warning 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

558 
FZAK51 PAFC 121228
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-130115-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 981 mb low 50 nm South of Cape Suckling moves into Southeast 
Alaska for Mon morning. A 989 mb low forms 20 nm West of Cape Cleare 
Sun afternoon and moves to 35 nm South of Cape Suckling at 1013 mb 
and dissipates Tue morning. A 1010 mb low forms over Cape Cleare on 
Mon afternoon and dissipates Tue morning. A front enters the 
Southwestern Gulf by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-130115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-130115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-130115-
Resurrection Bay-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-130115-
Prince William Sound-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-130115-
Port Valdez-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-130115-
Valdez Narrows-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-130115-
Valdez Arm-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-130115-
Passage Canal-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt, strongest near Whittier. Seas
5 ft. Heavy freezing spray after midnight.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt, strongest near Whittier. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-130115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. 
Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may 
rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 16 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.MON...W wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may
rapidly accumulate on vessels in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-130115-
Barren Islands East-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65
kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.MON...W wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-130115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.MON...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-130115-
Chiniak Bay-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-130115-
Marmot Bay-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.MON...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-130115-
Shelikof Strait-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
70 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 12 ft. Extreme freezing spray at 
a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels
near the west side of Shelikof Strait.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
11 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels near the west side of Shelikof 
Strait.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-130115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-130115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-130115-
Kachemak Bay-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level longwave trough dominates most of Alaska and the
Bering Sea, anchored by a broad upper level low over St. Matthew
Island. A shortwave trough extends over much of Southern Alaska
and the Gulf. At the surface, a decaying surface low lingers over
Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island. With this low weakening, the
weather has been active, but relatively benign, over the forecast
area. For the Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands, and Aleutian Chain,
northerly flow is ushering in snow showers and gusty winds. Over
the Southern Mainland, the Bethel, King Salmon, and Kenai radars
show light snow spreading across large portions of both Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska. For the Gulf of Alaska, Middleton Island
radar shows rain as the primary precipitation type. With
temperatures warming up above freezing in Prince William Sound,
there have been a few observations of snow mixed with rain.

The jet stream remains amplified south of Alaska, with a
northward curve toward the Gulf. This will set the stage for a
North Pacific shortwave and its attendant surface low to transit
towards the north Gulf coast later this weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in decent synoptic agreement. The biggest challenge
in the near-term will involve a low tracking into the northern
Gulf tonight. Models seem to be slowly converging in the middle
as compared to yesterday's distinctly different solutions between
the GFS/EC and NAM/Canadian. Overall impacts due to model
differences mostly involve finer details with marine winds and the
timing of precipitation through interior Southcentral. Further out,
models remain in decent agreement regarding the general track and
strength of a low pushing into the Aleutians on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions in the morning may drop to MVFR at times as
periods of light snow reduce visibility. Prevailing MVFR
conditions are expected by noon as ceilings lower in advance of
light snow this afternoon and evening, with the potential for IFR
visibilities during periods of heavier snow. Confidence in
snow timing and intensity remains low to moderate given the weak
shortwaves moving across Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

An active weather pattern continues across Southcentral Alaska for
the next few days as a series of lows move through the area.
Widespread gale and storm force winds along the coastal waters of
the northern Gulf will ease this evening and tonight. Strong
downslope forcing will remain in place across the Anchorage Bowl
and thus result in minimal precipitation with this first system.
The next low will then move in Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Downslope forcing is expected to be weaker with this next low
which means the chance for snow will be greater in Anchorage than
compared to this first low. Strong cold air advection is expected
in the wake of this second low on Monday. This strong cold air
advection will result in widespread storm force winds with
hurricane force gusts likely in the bays and passes. Heavy
freezing spray is also likely across the western Gulf on Monday as
a result of the strong winds combined with cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Broad upper level longwave troughing extends across Southwest
Alaska, with a series of shortwaves wrapping around the trough.
Lingering snow showers will persist through the rest of the weekend,
but very little additional snow accumulations are expected. Cold
air advection is on a pretty linear west to east track that will
encompass Southwest, with frigid overnight temperatures reaching
into the minus 20's by Sunday night and a gradual decline into the
sub-zero range during the day by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The majority of the Bering Sea will continue to see improving
conditions. Cold air advection is moving west to east, enhancing
winds south of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night, most notably out
of bays and passes. Areas of storm force gusts and heavy freezing
spray are expected from Wide Bay to Chignik Bay Sunday and Sunday
night. Additionally, areas of extreme freezing spray will continue
along the ice edge through Sunday, with heavy freezing spray
reaching south to the Pribilof Islands and along the northern edge
of the southern Alaska Peninsula. The next system approaches the
Aleutian Chain Monday morning. The storm force front pushes
northeastward over the Central Aleutians Sunday afternoon. The
strongest winds will likely remain over the Central Aleutians as
they wrap around the backside of the low, but there is a chance
for them to push towards the Pribilof Islands. There remains some
inconsistency with this system regarding low track and timing of
winds/precipitation. There will be a transient push of some warmer
air, but there is poor agreement on when that comes in. The
current trend is that colder air will hang on along the leading
edge of the front, with the initial band of precipitation
remaining as snow along the Central Aleutians that, when coupled
with the increased winds, could lead to periods of blowing snow
Sunday night, before transitioning to rain or a rain/snow mix.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A highly amplified pattern is expected next week with a series of
strong lows forecast to track across the region. Forecast
confidence remains above average as models continue to be
relatively consistent with the depiction of several strong
synoptic features. Tuesday morning, a weakening low centered near
the eastern Aleutians may bring a period of storm-force gusts
through the islands and to the Alaska Peninsula through early
Wednesday. Strong cold advection on the back side of the low will
help to mix down strong winds aloft and support snow showers and
periods of low visibility conditions as the low tracks east. Model
solutions appear slightly north of where they were yesterday and
in greater agreement with regards to the track of the low. This
would take it along a similar track to the low centered near the
southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula this evening. Precipitation
spreads into southern mainland Alaska on Tuesday as the low pushes
its front northward. The air mass out ahead of the low should be
sufficient to keep all precipitation snow for inland locations.
Along portions of the north Gulf coast, rain may be possible at
low elevations, especially on the east side of a weak triple point
low that looks to develop in the northern Gulf. Precipitation
gradually tapers off going into Wednesday as the main source of
moisture is shunted eastward and the broader upper-level trough
begins to lift out of the area.

Out west, a low near Kamchatka, potentially as deep as 940 mb,
pushes a storm force front into the western Aleutians on Tuesday.
Along with it comes a southerly push of warmer air, which should
quickly switch precipitation from snow to rain. The front sweeps
to the eastern Aleutians by Wednesday, but uncertainty grows
thereafter. Models begin to disagree on whether the front stalls
out or is able to push into Southwest Alaska Wednesday night. Both
GFS and EC favor an eastward progression, and if it materializes,
the warm air moving in over cold air at the surface may be
sufficient to produce a period of freezing rain along the Bristol
Bay coast, while the rest of the area would see snow. Both models
keep the front progressing into Southcentral, where it has the
potential to bring several inches of snow on Thursday, but this is
lower confidence. Various shortwaves rapidly lift out ahead of
the deep low as it decays over the western Bering Sea on Thursday
and Friday. While there is significant uncertainty with the
placement of these features, models are in rough agreement on the
potential for a second, weaker front to sweep across the
central/eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea to the southern mainland,
bring mostly snow, with low potential for rain/mixed
precipitation near the coast. Though timing and placement is
uncertain, Southwest Alaska is the most likely area for this
front to bring precipitation, with lower confidence of moving on
into Southcentral for the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130-131 136-139 141 150 160
					165 179-180 185 411-412 414.
         Storm Warning 130-131 177.
         Gale Warning 119-120 132 136-139 141 150 155 160 176 178
					351-352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...CQ