Storm Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK62 PAFC 121221
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130315-
321 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb North Pacific low moves to 49N 179W at 967 mb by Mon 
afternoon, then shifts to 52N 166W at 980 mb for Tue morning. Its 
front moves over the Aleutians into the Southern Alaska Peninsula 
by Tue morning. A 948 mb North Pacific low and front approaches 
the Western Aleutians for Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-130315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming E 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels N of 58N.
.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Extreme freezing spray 
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels N of 58N. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

903 
FZAK62 PAFC 130016
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131345-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 mb North Pacific low moves to 50N 176W at 970 mb Mon 
afternoon. The low moves to 52N 166W at 980 mb Tue morning. 
A 935 mb North Pacific low and front approaches the western 
Aleutians Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray 
in the morning. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NE after midnight. 
Seas 4 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 57N.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Extreme freezing spray 
N of 58N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray N of 58N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

555 
FZAK62 PAFC 131335
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140230-
435 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 49N 179W moves to 51N 167W at 983 mb, then shifts
into the North Pacific at 1007 mb for Wed morning. Its front 
moves into the Gulf of Alaska by Wed morning. A 998 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 51N 164E at 940 mb for Wed morning. Its front
extends across the Western Aleutians and Bering through Wed 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-140230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
435 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
435 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
435 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
435 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Extreme freezing spray 
N of 58N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Extreme freezing spray 
N of 58N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Extreme freezing spray 
N of 58N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.

$$

677 
FZAK62 PAFC 140039
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141315-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 50N 175W moves into the North Pacific at 990 mb 
Tue morning. A 935 mb North Pacific low and front approaches the 
western Aleutians Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-141315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 57N. Snow.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray N of 57N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Extreme freezing spray N of 58N 
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing
spray, mainly during the evening.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level longwave trough dominates most of Alaska and the
Bering Sea, anchored by a broad upper level low over St. Matthew
Island. A shortwave trough extends over much of Southern Alaska
and the Gulf. At the surface, a decaying surface low lingers over
Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island. With this low weakening, the
weather has been active, but relatively benign, over the forecast
area. For the Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands, and Aleutian Chain,
northerly flow is ushering in snow showers and gusty winds. Over
the Southern Mainland, the Bethel, King Salmon, and Kenai radars
show light snow spreading across large portions of both Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska. For the Gulf of Alaska, Middleton Island
radar shows rain as the primary precipitation type. With
temperatures warming up above freezing in Prince William Sound,
there have been a few observations of snow mixed with rain.

The jet stream remains amplified south of Alaska, with a
northward curve toward the Gulf. This will set the stage for a
North Pacific shortwave and its attendant surface low to transit
towards the north Gulf coast later this weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in decent synoptic agreement. The biggest challenge
in the near-term will involve a low tracking into the northern
Gulf tonight. Models seem to be slowly converging in the middle
as compared to yesterday's distinctly different solutions between
the GFS/EC and NAM/Canadian. Overall impacts due to model
differences mostly involve finer details with marine winds and the
timing of precipitation through interior Southcentral. Further out,
models remain in decent agreement regarding the general track and
strength of a low pushing into the Aleutians on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions in the morning may drop to MVFR at times as
periods of light snow reduce visibility. Prevailing MVFR
conditions are expected by noon as ceilings lower in advance of
light snow this afternoon and evening, with the potential for IFR
visibilities during periods of heavier snow. Confidence in
snow timing and intensity remains low to moderate given the weak
shortwaves moving across Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

An active weather pattern continues across Southcentral Alaska for
the next few days as a series of lows move through the area.
Widespread gale and storm force winds along the coastal waters of
the northern Gulf will ease this evening and tonight. Strong
downslope forcing will remain in place across the Anchorage Bowl
and thus result in minimal precipitation with this first system.
The next low will then move in Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Downslope forcing is expected to be weaker with this next low
which means the chance for snow will be greater in Anchorage than
compared to this first low. Strong cold air advection is expected
in the wake of this second low on Monday. This strong cold air
advection will result in widespread storm force winds with
hurricane force gusts likely in the bays and passes. Heavy
freezing spray is also likely across the western Gulf on Monday as
a result of the strong winds combined with cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Broad upper level longwave troughing extends across Southwest
Alaska, with a series of shortwaves wrapping around the trough.
Lingering snow showers will persist through the rest of the weekend,
but very little additional snow accumulations are expected. Cold
air advection is on a pretty linear west to east track that will
encompass Southwest, with frigid overnight temperatures reaching
into the minus 20's by Sunday night and a gradual decline into the
sub-zero range during the day by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The majority of the Bering Sea will continue to see improving
conditions. Cold air advection is moving west to east, enhancing
winds south of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night, most notably out
of bays and passes. Areas of storm force gusts and heavy freezing
spray are expected from Wide Bay to Chignik Bay Sunday and Sunday
night. Additionally, areas of extreme freezing spray will continue
along the ice edge through Sunday, with heavy freezing spray
reaching south to the Pribilof Islands and along the northern edge
of the southern Alaska Peninsula. The next system approaches the
Aleutian Chain Monday morning. The storm force front pushes
northeastward over the Central Aleutians Sunday afternoon. The
strongest winds will likely remain over the Central Aleutians as
they wrap around the backside of the low, but there is a chance
for them to push towards the Pribilof Islands. There remains some
inconsistency with this system regarding low track and timing of
winds/precipitation. There will be a transient push of some warmer
air, but there is poor agreement on when that comes in. The
current trend is that colder air will hang on along the leading
edge of the front, with the initial band of precipitation
remaining as snow along the Central Aleutians that, when coupled
with the increased winds, could lead to periods of blowing snow
Sunday night, before transitioning to rain or a rain/snow mix.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A highly amplified pattern is expected next week with a series of
strong lows forecast to track across the region. Forecast
confidence remains above average as models continue to be
relatively consistent with the depiction of several strong
synoptic features. Tuesday morning, a weakening low centered near
the eastern Aleutians may bring a period of storm-force gusts
through the islands and to the Alaska Peninsula through early
Wednesday. Strong cold advection on the back side of the low will
help to mix down strong winds aloft and support snow showers and
periods of low visibility conditions as the low tracks east. Model
solutions appear slightly north of where they were yesterday and
in greater agreement with regards to the track of the low. This
would take it along a similar track to the low centered near the
southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula this evening. Precipitation
spreads into southern mainland Alaska on Tuesday as the low pushes
its front northward. The air mass out ahead of the low should be
sufficient to keep all precipitation snow for inland locations.
Along portions of the north Gulf coast, rain may be possible at
low elevations, especially on the east side of a weak triple point
low that looks to develop in the northern Gulf. Precipitation
gradually tapers off going into Wednesday as the main source of
moisture is shunted eastward and the broader upper-level trough
begins to lift out of the area.

Out west, a low near Kamchatka, potentially as deep as 940 mb,
pushes a storm force front into the western Aleutians on Tuesday.
Along with it comes a southerly push of warmer air, which should
quickly switch precipitation from snow to rain. The front sweeps
to the eastern Aleutians by Wednesday, but uncertainty grows
thereafter. Models begin to disagree on whether the front stalls
out or is able to push into Southwest Alaska Wednesday night. Both
GFS and EC favor an eastward progression, and if it materializes,
the warm air moving in over cold air at the surface may be
sufficient to produce a period of freezing rain along the Bristol
Bay coast, while the rest of the area would see snow. Both models
keep the front progressing into Southcentral, where it has the
potential to bring several inches of snow on Thursday, but this is
lower confidence. Various shortwaves rapidly lift out ahead of
the deep low as it decays over the western Bering Sea on Thursday
and Friday. While there is significant uncertainty with the
placement of these features, models are in rough agreement on the
potential for a second, weaker front to sweep across the
central/eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea to the southern mainland,
bring mostly snow, with low potential for rain/mixed
precipitation near the coast. Though timing and placement is
uncertain, Southwest Alaska is the most likely area for this
front to bring precipitation, with lower confidence of moving on
into Southcentral for the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130-131 136-139 141 150 160
					165 179-180 185 411-412 414.
         Storm Warning 130-131 177.
         Gale Warning 119-120 132 136-139 141 150 155 160 176 178
					351-352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...CQ