Storm Warning 45, NWS Anchorage, AK

657 
FZAK52 PAFC 121106
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130015-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 mb North Pacific low moves to 190 nm South of Adak at 967 
mb by Mon afternoon, then shifts to 125 nm South of Dutch Harbor 
at 980 mb for Tue morning. Its front moves over the Aleutians into
the Southern Alaska Peninsula by Tue morning. A 948 mb North 
Pacific low and front approaches the Western Aleutians for Tue 
morning. 

$$

PKZ150-130015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Higher gusts out of bays and passes. Seas 16
ft. Heavy freezing spray out of bays and passes.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray out of bays
and passes.
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Heavy freezing spray out of bays and passes.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt
becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130015-
Bristol Bay-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per 
hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 25 kt increasing
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the 
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130015-
Unalaska Bay-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 30 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130015-
Adak to Kiska-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 60 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft building to 24
ft after midnight. Pac side, seas 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130015-
Kiska to Attu-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt except NE 40 kt from Shemya W. Seas 16 ft
building to 22 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft subsiding to 
3 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 3ft becoming 8ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-130015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray after midnight. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft. 

$$

309 
FZAK52 PAFC 130008
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131230-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 965 mb North Pacific low moves to 130 nm south of Adak at 970 
mb Mon afternoon. The low moves to 125 nm south of Dutch Harbor 
at 980 mb Tue morning. A 935 mb North Pacific low and front 
approaches the western Aleutians Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-131230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes early. 
Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray N and W of Chirikof Island.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Heavy freezing spray NW of Sitkinak Island in the morning. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray during the evening.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 25 kt
becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131230-
Bristol Bay-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 30 kt
becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
From Port Moller E, SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131230-
Unalaska Bay-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 31 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 31 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 12 ft building 
to 20 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 22 ft 
after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131230-
Adak to Kiska-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 65 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft building to 24 ft 
after midnight. Pacific side, seas 29 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 60 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 25 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131230-
Kiska to Attu-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight. 
From Shemya W, NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft building 
to 22 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...E wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW during the evening, then NE
after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the evening.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. 
Extreme freezing spray in the afternoon at a rate of 4 cm per 
hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-131230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level longwave trough dominates most of Alaska and the
Bering Sea, anchored by a broad upper level low over St. Matthew
Island. A shortwave trough extends over much of Southern Alaska
and the Gulf. At the surface, a decaying surface low lingers over
Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island. With this low weakening, the
weather has been active, but relatively benign, over the forecast
area. For the Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands, and Aleutian Chain,
northerly flow is ushering in snow showers and gusty winds. Over
the Southern Mainland, the Bethel, King Salmon, and Kenai radars
show light snow spreading across large portions of both Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska. For the Gulf of Alaska, Middleton Island
radar shows rain as the primary precipitation type. With
temperatures warming up above freezing in Prince William Sound,
there have been a few observations of snow mixed with rain.

The jet stream remains amplified south of Alaska, with a
northward curve toward the Gulf. This will set the stage for a
North Pacific shortwave and its attendant surface low to transit
towards the north Gulf coast later this weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in decent synoptic agreement. The biggest challenge
in the near-term will involve a low tracking into the northern
Gulf tonight. Models seem to be slowly converging in the middle
as compared to yesterday's distinctly different solutions between
the GFS/EC and NAM/Canadian. Overall impacts due to model
differences mostly involve finer details with marine winds and the
timing of precipitation through interior Southcentral. Further out,
models remain in decent agreement regarding the general track and
strength of a low pushing into the Aleutians on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions in the morning may drop to MVFR at times as
periods of light snow reduce visibility. Prevailing MVFR
conditions are expected by noon as ceilings lower in advance of
light snow this afternoon and evening, with the potential for IFR
visibilities during periods of heavier snow. Confidence in
snow timing and intensity remains low to moderate given the weak
shortwaves moving across Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

An active weather pattern continues across Southcentral Alaska for
the next few days as a series of lows move through the area.
Widespread gale and storm force winds along the coastal waters of
the northern Gulf will ease this evening and tonight. Strong
downslope forcing will remain in place across the Anchorage Bowl
and thus result in minimal precipitation with this first system.
The next low will then move in Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Downslope forcing is expected to be weaker with this next low
which means the chance for snow will be greater in Anchorage than
compared to this first low. Strong cold air advection is expected
in the wake of this second low on Monday. This strong cold air
advection will result in widespread storm force winds with
hurricane force gusts likely in the bays and passes. Heavy
freezing spray is also likely across the western Gulf on Monday as
a result of the strong winds combined with cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Broad upper level longwave troughing extends across Southwest
Alaska, with a series of shortwaves wrapping around the trough.
Lingering snow showers will persist through the rest of the weekend,
but very little additional snow accumulations are expected. Cold
air advection is on a pretty linear west to east track that will
encompass Southwest, with frigid overnight temperatures reaching
into the minus 20's by Sunday night and a gradual decline into the
sub-zero range during the day by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The majority of the Bering Sea will continue to see improving
conditions. Cold air advection is moving west to east, enhancing
winds south of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night, most notably out
of bays and passes. Areas of storm force gusts and heavy freezing
spray are expected from Wide Bay to Chignik Bay Sunday and Sunday
night. Additionally, areas of extreme freezing spray will continue
along the ice edge through Sunday, with heavy freezing spray
reaching south to the Pribilof Islands and along the northern edge
of the southern Alaska Peninsula. The next system approaches the
Aleutian Chain Monday morning. The storm force front pushes
northeastward over the Central Aleutians Sunday afternoon. The
strongest winds will likely remain over the Central Aleutians as
they wrap around the backside of the low, but there is a chance
for them to push towards the Pribilof Islands. There remains some
inconsistency with this system regarding low track and timing of
winds/precipitation. There will be a transient push of some warmer
air, but there is poor agreement on when that comes in. The
current trend is that colder air will hang on along the leading
edge of the front, with the initial band of precipitation
remaining as snow along the Central Aleutians that, when coupled
with the increased winds, could lead to periods of blowing snow
Sunday night, before transitioning to rain or a rain/snow mix.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A highly amplified pattern is expected next week with a series of
strong lows forecast to track across the region. Forecast
confidence remains above average as models continue to be
relatively consistent with the depiction of several strong
synoptic features. Tuesday morning, a weakening low centered near
the eastern Aleutians may bring a period of storm-force gusts
through the islands and to the Alaska Peninsula through early
Wednesday. Strong cold advection on the back side of the low will
help to mix down strong winds aloft and support snow showers and
periods of low visibility conditions as the low tracks east. Model
solutions appear slightly north of where they were yesterday and
in greater agreement with regards to the track of the low. This
would take it along a similar track to the low centered near the
southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula this evening. Precipitation
spreads into southern mainland Alaska on Tuesday as the low pushes
its front northward. The air mass out ahead of the low should be
sufficient to keep all precipitation snow for inland locations.
Along portions of the north Gulf coast, rain may be possible at
low elevations, especially on the east side of a weak triple point
low that looks to develop in the northern Gulf. Precipitation
gradually tapers off going into Wednesday as the main source of
moisture is shunted eastward and the broader upper-level trough
begins to lift out of the area.

Out west, a low near Kamchatka, potentially as deep as 940 mb,
pushes a storm force front into the western Aleutians on Tuesday.
Along with it comes a southerly push of warmer air, which should
quickly switch precipitation from snow to rain. The front sweeps
to the eastern Aleutians by Wednesday, but uncertainty grows
thereafter. Models begin to disagree on whether the front stalls
out or is able to push into Southwest Alaska Wednesday night. Both
GFS and EC favor an eastward progression, and if it materializes,
the warm air moving in over cold air at the surface may be
sufficient to produce a period of freezing rain along the Bristol
Bay coast, while the rest of the area would see snow. Both models
keep the front progressing into Southcentral, where it has the
potential to bring several inches of snow on Thursday, but this is
lower confidence. Various shortwaves rapidly lift out ahead of
the deep low as it decays over the western Bering Sea on Thursday
and Friday. While there is significant uncertainty with the
placement of these features, models are in rough agreement on the
potential for a second, weaker front to sweep across the
central/eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea to the southern mainland,
bring mostly snow, with low potential for rain/mixed
precipitation near the coast. Though timing and placement is
uncertain, Southwest Alaska is the most likely area for this
front to bring precipitation, with lower confidence of moving on
into Southcentral for the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130-131 136-139 141 150 160
					165 179-180 185 411-412 414.
         Storm Warning 130-131 177.
         Gale Warning 119-120 132 136-139 141 150 155 160 176 178
					351-352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...CQ