Storm Warning 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

835 
FZAK62 PAFC 161256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170200-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 952 mb low at 53N 168E moves to 55N 171E at 960 mb Thursday
afternoon. The low remains nearly stationary and weakens to 
976 mb Friday afternoon. A second 980 mb low forms at 56N 170W 
Thursday afternoon and moves to 60N 166W at 970 mb Thursday night.
The low then moves inland though early Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ411-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind up to 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow with rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

014 
FZAK62 PAFC 170005
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171445-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low near 55N 173E moves to 58N 176E at 987 mb Sat 
afternoon. A 977 mb low near 56N 170W moves to 60N 165W at 974 mb 
Thu night and then moves inland Fri morning. A 980 mb low at 56N 
165W Fri night moves to 58N 162W at 985 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

002 
FZAK62 PAFC 171258
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180230-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 mb low at 57N 176E remains nearly stationary through Sunday
morning. A 980 mb low at 56N 165W Friday night moves to 58N 162W 
at 985 mb Saturday morning. The low then moves inland Saturday 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
555 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern persists over the region with a longwave
trough centered over the Bering Strait and a deep low located near
the western Aleutians. Satellite Imagery is showing a plume of
moisture spreading across the western and central Aleutians in
association with the low downstream. The aforementioned low's
front is stretching eastward over the western/central Aleutians,
and will be the focus for active weather for not only the Bering
Sea and Aleutians, but also Southcentral later in the week. Radar
returns are shown over the western Kenai Peninsula and near
Cordova as energy overhead continues to bring light snow showers
to the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models seem to be handling the overall synoptic pattern well, but
are struggling with the finer details. Out west, their is a
potential for higher winds to impact the central Aleutians around
Friday afternoon due to a low tracking northwards across the
Chain. Model spread grows in regards to the track of the low in
relation to the Pribilof Islands. The NAM/GFS are having the low
track above the Islands, whereas the Canadian and EC are having
the low stay south of the Islands. This impacts where the
strongest winds will be with this system. For the east, models are
having a hard time handling the front pushing through Thursday
night into Friday in relation to where the precipitation will
occur. A blend of the GFS/NAM are currently the models of choice
as it is the middle ground solution and seem to be in the best
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
this morning. Chances for light snow increase around mid-day
today with the potential for ceilings to drop to MVFR conditions.
However, conditions will likely stay VFR with flurries.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface low lingers in the northern Gulf is keeping unsettled
weather for Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula, and eastern Prince
William Sound. Accumulations are expected to be on the lighter
side. The next system arriving to Southcentral will be the next
forecast focus in the near future. Plenty of moisture will advect
into the area with a front and southeasterly flow. Agreement is
also coming together for increased southeast winds. This is coming
from a trough that develops off the energy and moisture fetch
from a strong low near the western Aleutians. As the major low
stalls, this low spins up and ejects the moisture and energy
toward Southwest Alaska. The trough negatively tilts into the Gulf
of Alaska and a new low develops near Kodiak Island Thursday
night. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and
position of the low, but the general synoptics remains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday...

Precipitation will taper off from west to east this morning as an
upper-level ridge builds across the region from the Bering.
Clearing skies and dry conditions will be quickly brought to an
end a Bering surface front approaches the region. The front is
expected to lift across the Alaska Peninsula starting this evening
and then reach the Southwest coast around midnight tonight.
Elevated winds and snow are expected to accompany the front before
it tracks farther inland and dissipates on Thursday morning.
Another system, which is trending stronger than the aforementioned
one, will initially reach the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday
afternoon and then track to the Southwest Mainland by Thursday
night. This stronger front is expected to spread heavy snow and
gusty winds across much of Southwest as it lifts to the northeast
across the region through Friday morning. Precipitation will
likely linger across the Southwest Mainland through Friday as the
system exits to the north. On Friday evening, a North Pacific low
approaches the Alaska Peninsula and extends it front northward
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A strong front extending off a Kamchatka low pushes east across
the Central and Eastern Aleutians this morning. Gusty
southeasterly winds and snowfall with the low are expected to
bring blizzard conditions to the Pribilof Islands this morning
through the evening. The front will continue east to the Southwest
Mainland and weaken tonight into Thursday morning. The low itself
will linger near the Western Aleutians and Bering through
Saturday, maintaining elevated winds and precipitation for that
general region through the short term period. Recent model runs
advertise a North Pacific low developing near the Central
Aleutians on Thursday morning. Model agreement with the exact
low track begins to diverge already by Thursday afternoon, however
the low generally looks to track near the Pribilof Islands on
Friday night and then towards the Eastern Bering. Gusty winds and
heavy precipitation are expected to accompany the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The key features of the long term include a building upper level
ridge over the Gulf on Saturday with a broad upper level trough
over the northern Bering. Initially for the beginning of the
period, the jet stream remains south of the Aleutians and briefly
traverses the southern mainland before shifting south over the
Gulf on Sunday. Nonetheless, a mostly active pattern will continue
into early next week as several North Pacific lows lift northward
into the Bering and the Gulf.

By Saturday night, a fast-moving North Pacific low remains south
of the Aleutians and arrives over the Alaska Peninsula. This low
then tracks northeastward into the Gulf, bringing the potential
for precipitation for the southern mainland - from the Alaska
Peninsula eastward to Prince William Sound coast. Depending on the
position of this low as it reaches the Gulf, precipitation may
spread farther northward into the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin.

Moving into Sunday, scattered showers look to persist across the
Bering and Southwestern coast, however both the GFS and EC
advertise a building an upper level ridge over the Bering early
Monday morning. Meanwhile a potent low arrives over the western
Aleutians and is quickly driven into the northern Bering by Monday
night. If this setup pans out and the ridge strengthens as
currently advertised, a highly amplified pattern will take shape
for Tuesday as multiple North Pacific lows are steered into the
Bering. Meanwhile much of the mainland may see calmer (though
likely colder) conditions as offshore flow prevails through late
Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 195.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 130, 155, 170, 172-177, 179, 185, 412-114.
		 Storm Warning: 178, 411.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 130, 138, 150, 160, 165,
 	     179, 185, 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...KO