Gale Warning 152, NWS Anchorage, AK

275 
FZAK52 PAFC 161255
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170200-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 952 mb low 200 nm west of Shemya moves 180 nm northwest of
Shemya at 960 mb Thursday afternoon. The low remains nearly 
stationary and weakens to 976 mb Friday afternoon. A second 980 
mb low forms 180 nm north of Dutch Harbor Thursday afternoon and 
moves 200 nm north of Saint Paul Island at 970 mb Thursday night. 
The low then moves inland though early Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ150-170200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft building to 19 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170200-
Bristol Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Gusts to 60
kt after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building to 11 ft 
after midnight. Snow with rain.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 
ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt before midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170200-
Unalaska Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 45 kt before midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain
and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170200-
Adak to Kiska-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170200-
Kiska to Attu-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-170200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.MON...S wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-170200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels near the ice edge N of 60 N. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels near the ice edge N of 60 N. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels near the ice edge N of 60 N.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.

$$

550 
FZAK52 PAFC 170005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171245-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 963 mb low 140 nm north of Shemya moves 330 nm north of Shemya at 
987 mb Sat afternoon. A 977 mb low 65 nm south of Saint Paul Island 
moves over Nunivak Island at 974 mb Thu night and then moves inland 
Fri morning. A 980 mb low 100 nm northwest of Cold Bay Fri night 
moves 100 nm southwest of Dillingham at 985 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-171245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171245-
Bristol Bay-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Freezing
spray early.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. From Port Moller E, seas 9
ft building to 18 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight, Seas 9
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, E wind 25 
kt, Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171245-
Unalaska Bay-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 50 kt before midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Gusts to
55 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. 
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171245-
Adak to Kiska-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171245-
Kiska to Attu-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. 
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ181-171245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-171245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... E 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
555 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern persists over the region with a longwave
trough centered over the Bering Strait and a deep low located near
the western Aleutians. Satellite Imagery is showing a plume of
moisture spreading across the western and central Aleutians in
association with the low downstream. The aforementioned low's
front is stretching eastward over the western/central Aleutians,
and will be the focus for active weather for not only the Bering
Sea and Aleutians, but also Southcentral later in the week. Radar
returns are shown over the western Kenai Peninsula and near
Cordova as energy overhead continues to bring light snow showers
to the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models seem to be handling the overall synoptic pattern well, but
are struggling with the finer details. Out west, their is a
potential for higher winds to impact the central Aleutians around
Friday afternoon due to a low tracking northwards across the
Chain. Model spread grows in regards to the track of the low in
relation to the Pribilof Islands. The NAM/GFS are having the low
track above the Islands, whereas the Canadian and EC are having
the low stay south of the Islands. This impacts where the
strongest winds will be with this system. For the east, models are
having a hard time handling the front pushing through Thursday
night into Friday in relation to where the precipitation will
occur. A blend of the GFS/NAM are currently the models of choice
as it is the middle ground solution and seem to be in the best
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
this morning. Chances for light snow increase around mid-day
today with the potential for ceilings to drop to MVFR conditions.
However, conditions will likely stay VFR with flurries.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface low lingers in the northern Gulf is keeping unsettled
weather for Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula, and eastern Prince
William Sound. Accumulations are expected to be on the lighter
side. The next system arriving to Southcentral will be the next
forecast focus in the near future. Plenty of moisture will advect
into the area with a front and southeasterly flow. Agreement is
also coming together for increased southeast winds. This is coming
from a trough that develops off the energy and moisture fetch
from a strong low near the western Aleutians. As the major low
stalls, this low spins up and ejects the moisture and energy
toward Southwest Alaska. The trough negatively tilts into the Gulf
of Alaska and a new low develops near Kodiak Island Thursday
night. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and
position of the low, but the general synoptics remains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday...

Precipitation will taper off from west to east this morning as an
upper-level ridge builds across the region from the Bering.
Clearing skies and dry conditions will be quickly brought to an
end a Bering surface front approaches the region. The front is
expected to lift across the Alaska Peninsula starting this evening
and then reach the Southwest coast around midnight tonight.
Elevated winds and snow are expected to accompany the front before
it tracks farther inland and dissipates on Thursday morning.
Another system, which is trending stronger than the aforementioned
one, will initially reach the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday
afternoon and then track to the Southwest Mainland by Thursday
night. This stronger front is expected to spread heavy snow and
gusty winds across much of Southwest as it lifts to the northeast
across the region through Friday morning. Precipitation will
likely linger across the Southwest Mainland through Friday as the
system exits to the north. On Friday evening, a North Pacific low
approaches the Alaska Peninsula and extends it front northward
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A strong front extending off a Kamchatka low pushes east across
the Central and Eastern Aleutians this morning. Gusty
southeasterly winds and snowfall with the low are expected to
bring blizzard conditions to the Pribilof Islands this morning
through the evening. The front will continue east to the Southwest
Mainland and weaken tonight into Thursday morning. The low itself
will linger near the Western Aleutians and Bering through
Saturday, maintaining elevated winds and precipitation for that
general region through the short term period. Recent model runs
advertise a North Pacific low developing near the Central
Aleutians on Thursday morning. Model agreement with the exact
low track begins to diverge already by Thursday afternoon, however
the low generally looks to track near the Pribilof Islands on
Friday night and then towards the Eastern Bering. Gusty winds and
heavy precipitation are expected to accompany the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The key features of the long term include a building upper level
ridge over the Gulf on Saturday with a broad upper level trough
over the northern Bering. Initially for the beginning of the
period, the jet stream remains south of the Aleutians and briefly
traverses the southern mainland before shifting south over the
Gulf on Sunday. Nonetheless, a mostly active pattern will continue
into early next week as several North Pacific lows lift northward
into the Bering and the Gulf.

By Saturday night, a fast-moving North Pacific low remains south
of the Aleutians and arrives over the Alaska Peninsula. This low
then tracks northeastward into the Gulf, bringing the potential
for precipitation for the southern mainland - from the Alaska
Peninsula eastward to Prince William Sound coast. Depending on the
position of this low as it reaches the Gulf, precipitation may
spread farther northward into the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin.

Moving into Sunday, scattered showers look to persist across the
Bering and Southwestern coast, however both the GFS and EC
advertise a building an upper level ridge over the Bering early
Monday morning. Meanwhile a potent low arrives over the western
Aleutians and is quickly driven into the northern Bering by Monday
night. If this setup pans out and the ridge strengthens as
currently advertised, a highly amplified pattern will take shape
for Tuesday as multiple North Pacific lows are steered into the
Bering. Meanwhile much of the mainland may see calmer (though
likely colder) conditions as offshore flow prevails through late
Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 195.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 130, 155, 170, 172-177, 179, 185, 412-114.
		 Storm Warning: 178, 411.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 130, 138, 150, 160, 165,
 	     179, 185, 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...KO