Gale Warning 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

008 
FZAK61 PAFC 170028
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171400-
328 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 mb low develops over Kodiak Island tonight and moves to 59N 
148W Fri morning at 997 mb then moves to 59N 143W at 1001 mb Fri 
afternoon. A 997 mb low forms at 59N 152W Sat morning and then moves
to 60N 147W at 999 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-171400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
328 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 14 to 19 ft
in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
328 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

277 
FZAK61 PAFC 171245
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180230-
345 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 997 mb low at 59N 148W Friday moves to 59N 143W at 1001 mb 
Friday afternoon and then moves inland. Another front enters the 
western Gulf Friday night. A 997 mb low forms at 59N 152W Saturday
morning and then moves to 60N 147W at 999 mb Saturday afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-180230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft building 
to 15 to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE late. 
Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building 
to 16 to 20 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

676 
FZAK61 PAFC 180013
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181445-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 mb low at 59N 140W exits into Southeast Alaska Sat morning. A 
999 mb low forms over Kodiak City Sat morning and moves to Prince 
William Sound at 999 mb Sat afternoon then to 60N 144W at 1012 mb 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-181445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE late. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
313 PM AKST Fri Feb 17 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

469 
FZAK61 PAFC 181244
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-190215-
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 998 mb low at 59N 140W exits into Southeast Alaska by Sat
morning. A 999 mb low forms over Kodiak City Sat morning. It 
moves to Prince William Sound at 999 mb by Sat afternoon, then 
to 59N 143W at 1015 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-190215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-190215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

465 
FZAK61 PAFC 190020
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-191430-
320 PM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 mb low at 60N 147W exits into Southeast Alaska at 1002 mb 
by Mon afternoon. Its front moves into Southeast Alaska through 
Mon afternoon. A weak ridge moves over the Western Gulf for Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-191430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
320 PM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-191430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
320 PM AKST Sat Feb 18 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

688 
FZAK61 PAFC 191243
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-200215-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1005 mb low and its front weaken near the Southeast Alaska 
coast this morning. A front lifts over the southeastern Gulf
tonight. High pressure enters the Gulf from Mon morning through 
Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-200215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-200215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

720 
FZAK61 PAFC 200017
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-201545-
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front crosses the southeastern Gulf tonight. High pressure enters 
the Gulf from Mon morning through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-201545-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-201545-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
317 PM AKST Sun Feb 19 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt becoming 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

197 
FZAK61 PAFC 201254
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-210215-
354 AM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
High pressure enters the Gulf this morning and persists 
through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-210215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 AM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-210215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 AM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

183 
FZAK61 PAFC 210020
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-211345-
320 PM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

High pressure persists through Wed morning. A weak front moves
into the Western Gulf Tue night through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-211345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
320 PM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-211345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
320 PM AKST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

610 
FZAK61 PAFC 211220
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 21 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-220130-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
High pressure persists through Wed morning. A weak front moves
into the Western Gulf tonight through Wed afternoon. Another front
enters the Western Gulf Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-220130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 21 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-220130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 21 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern persists across the region with the jet
stream tapping into sub-tropical moisture and crossing the
central Aleutians and then bending over the ridge near Southwest
Alaska before diving southward across the Gulf. Two shortwaves are
crossing Southcentral with the first producing light snow across
the western Kenai Peninsula. This snow will end this afternoon. A
second shortwave is moving east into the Yukon and Southeast
Alaska pushing the snow east of the area. Out west an occluded low
pressure system is west of the chain with the occluded front
stretching from the northern Bering through the eastern Aleutians.
This is producing gales across the Bering and central and eastern
Aleutians with blizzard conditions across the Pribilof Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement with the general synoptic scale
pattern, but are struggling with some of the details. There are
some model differences as the next storm force low moves across
the central Aleutians and towards Southwest Alaska Thursday and
Thursday night with the GFS the farthest south of the bunch, while
the GEM is farthest north and the EC somewhere in between. The
main challenge with this low is how strong the winds will be and
if high winds are possible. Also depending on the track of the low
will influence whether or not the Pribilofs will get strong winds
and blizzard conditions on Thursday. Across the east, models
differ on the movement of a triple point low forming along the
front near the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula Friday morning.
The GEM models suggest a track just east of the Kenai Peninsula
moving into Prince William Sound, while the GFS is farther south
as it moves into the northern Gulf with the NAM and EC in between
these solutions. The ensembles are also not helpful as they each
favor their respective deterministic solutions. The biggest
challenge this low will bring is the potential for increased snow
amounts for the Anchorage area if the low tracks into Prince
William Sound.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
through tonight. Tomorrow morning an approaching shortwave trough
could possibly bring some light snow near the area with ceilings
decreasing to MVFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

Benign weather tonight and early tomorrow will transition towards
stormier weather Thursday night and Friday. Calm to light winds,
with the occasional light bout of snow, will persist across
Southcentral tonight as weak low pressure in the Gulf slowly
dissipates. Snow chances increase later tomorrow as an upper
level shortwave moves across Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and
Prince William Sound. This shortwave is weak, and guidance looks
to have trimmed back snow amounts a bit since the previous
forecast package. Any snow that does fall is expected to be very
light.

The main story in the short-term continues to be a triple point
low that develops near Kodiak Island Thursday night. Confidence is
high that this will be a moist system, with increasing confidence
that we'll see fairly strong winds, especially at elevation. This
system will first impact Kodiak island Thursday afternoon, with
precipitation initially starting as snow before transitioning to
rain. The front will quickly move into the north Gulf coast by
Friday morning, before exiting to Southeast Alaska by Friday
night. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, especially along
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. A tight
pressure gradient will induce strong easterly winds through
Eastern Turnagain Arm and along the Anchorage Hillside. This could
create hazardous conditions along Eastern Turnagain Arm/Portage
Valley and in the Anchorage Hillside for early Friday morning.
Stay tuned as we continue to update the forecast and hone in on
these details. Otherwise, more snow could be on the way for
Saturday as yet another triple point low moves along the north
Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A front moving in from the Bering Sea will reach the Southwest
coast tonight. A brief period of light snow is expected from the
front for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Bristol Bay coast before it
tracks farther inland and decays rapidly Thursday morning.
A stronger system will approach the Southwest coast Thursday
afternoon and begin to move inland Thursday night. This stronger
front is expected to bring more substantial snow and gusty
easterly winds across much of Southwest Alaska. There will be
some potential for blowing snow, especially along the coast,
though temperatures are expected to increase into the 30s rapidly
in Bristol Bay. The Kuskokwim Delta looks more ripe for more
blowing snow, with temperatures expected to remain cooler for
longer. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this risk.
Snow totals from this system will range from 3 to 6 inches for
most locations, and the bulk of this snow will accompany the front
Thursday night. As the low moves inland over the Kuskokwim Delta,
winds will shift out of the southwest and are likely to reach
gale force along the coast. Light snow showers are expected to
accompany this onshore push, but they could be widespread enough
in the Kuskokwim Delta for blowing snow and low visibility to
stick around through Friday afternoon. Winds will ease through the
day Friday as the low exits to the north. Then, a low tracking
along the Alaska Peninsula looks to bring more snow to Bristol Bay
for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A strong front extending off a deep low in the far western Bering
Sea pushes east to the Southwest coast this evening. Gusty
southerly winds wrapping around the low center will continue for
the western Aleutians as the low tracks slowly northeast through
Friday. Further east, the forecast is complicated. Models continue
to have a significant spread with a low expected to develop near
the central and eastern Aleutians Thursday morning. This
introduces significant uncertainty with regards to its impacts.
There is significant potential for high winds in association with
the developing low, but the placement is still uncertain at this
time. They will have the potential to occur on the south side of
the low through the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula with cold air wrapping around the back side of the low
and rapid pressure rises in its wake. The likelihood of high
winds increases further east as the low strengthens along its
track, though high winds are less favored along the Alaska
Peninsula due to terrain blockage with a southwesterly wind
direction. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the eastern
Aleutians due to the remaining uncertainty. Precipitation will
largely be rain with this system along the Aleutians, though some
snow will be possible at the onset and as snow showers in the
colder air mass behind the front. Snow is likely for the Pribilof
Islands as the center is now expected to track east of the
islands. Winds decrease below gale force across most of the
region by Friday night as the low tracks up the Western Alaska
coast. By Saturday, the Aleutians/Bering Sea will be under the
influence of a cold air mass aloft as the former hurricane force
low weakens over the western Bering. This will keep the region in
a showery regime going into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level ridge is expected to move over Southcentral
and Southwest Alaska during the extended period. Ensemble guidance
shows consistency in the ridge-axis extending across the lower
Kuskokwim Valley and across the western Alaska Range. The
orientation of this ridge supports a moderate tilt in the odds in
favor of warmer than normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation across Southwest Alaska. The odds also show a slight
tilt in favor of below normal temperatures across the Copper
Basin, with the strength of the tilt increasing farther east.

Synoptically, a frontal system is likely to move over Southwest
Alaska on Tuesday, though confidence remains low on the position
and orientation of the front at this time which results in low
confidence in the precipitation and precipitation type forecast.

The other concern this forecast period is strong westerly gap flow
through bays and passes across the western Gulf of Alaska on
Monday and Tuesday. Heavy freezing spray will likely be associated
with these strong gap winds due to cold air advection being
expected at the same time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 185. Winter Weather Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale 130 132 150-170 172-178 180-185.
		 Storm 171 179.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 130 139 140 155 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
LONG TERM...ED