Hurricane Force Wind Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

348 
FZAK52 PAFC 190026
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191345-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb Kamchatka low moves to 160 nm west of Attu at 944 mb 
by Sun afternoon, then moves north across the Bering into Monday 
afternoon. Its front will move gradually east across the west 
and central Aleutians through Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ750-191345-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ751-191345-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft 
after midnight.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-191345-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ753-191345-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ754-191345-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ755-191345-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ756-191345-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ757-191345-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ758-191345-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ759-191345-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ770-191345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ772-191345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-191345-
Unalaska Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-191345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ774-191345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ775-191345-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ776-191345-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ777-191345-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ778-191345-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ780-191345-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ781-191345-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ782-191345-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ783-191345-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ784-191345-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 60 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ785-191345-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ786-191345-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft building to 23 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ787-191345-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ766-191345-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ760-191345-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ761-191345-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ762-191345-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-191345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ764-191345-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ765-191345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ767-191345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
326 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming
SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 50 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Takeaways:

1) The coldest air of the season will arrive tonight and persist
through the weekend. Expect overnight lows ranging from 10 to 15
above zero along the coast, from 10 below zero to 5 above zero
from Cook Inlet to the Mat-Su Valleys, and 25 below to 10 below
zero for the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.

3) Strong northerly gap winds will develop along the coast from
Seward to Whittier and Valdez through Sunday. Expect blowing snow
along the coast of Prince William Sound and Turnagain and
Thompson Passes. Blizzard conditions are expected for Whittier and
Thompson Pass through Saturday.

A broad, longwave trough axis extending south through the Susitna
Valley and anchoring upper-level low over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula continue to slowly lift to the north and east this
afternoon. Areas of snow showers persist from Eagle River south
across the western Kenai Peninsula, due to a now weakening meso-
low that moved onshore north of Kenai this morning. Snow showers
are also persisting across the northern Gulf, moving north to
Cordova and Glennallen due to a surface low near Middleton
Island.

These snow showers will slowly taper off from west to east, with
snow showers lingering over the eastern Copper River Basin through
Saturday as the upper-level low exits.

As the low moves east, a ridge will build over interior
Southcentral while a surface low remains in the northern Gulf.
The result will be a rapid development of northerly gap winds for
mountain passes and gaps along the coast. These wind swill peak
by early Saturday afternoon for Seward and Whittier, with the peak
of winds arriving late Saturday evening for Valdez and Thompson
Pass. The combination of recent snow from Whittier to Valdez will
result in widespread blowing snow through Saturday with blizzard
conditions expected for Whittier and Thompson Pass.

Temperatures will also continue to fall as 850 mb temperatures
fall to near -20C through the weekend. This will result in the
coldest temperatures so far this season.

Winds and coastal precipitation will likely return by Monday as
frontal system moves into the northern Gulf.

TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3)...

Nearly the entire region will continue to see fairly benign
conditions for about the next day or two. Widespread ocean effect
snow showers generated by cold air moving over the comparatively
warm sea surface will continue to drift into the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula, as well as along parts of the Southwest coast at
times. This convective activity will be further aggravated as an
upper level shortwave crosses the Bering from northwest to
southeast. Within the upper shortwave are two embedded shortwaves
that have developed on satellite imagery. These will continue
move southeast, bringing snow showers past the Pribilofs this
evening, Kuskokwim Delta overnight tonight, then into the central
and eastern Aleutian Chain with lingering showers for the
Kuskokwim Mountains, due to upslope flow for Saturday morning.
Some snow showers could make it into Bristol Bay for early
Saturday morning.

Low temperatures will likely be the coldest early on Saturday,
dipping into the single digits above/below zero away from the
immediate coastline and especially in the Bristol Bay to
Kuskokwim Valley and western Aleutian range. The Kuskokwim Delta
and coasts could see temperatures in the teens and twenties. In
general, daytime highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer.
Temperatures will gradually increase again Tuesday.

Attention from there shifts to the next notable weather maker
arriving out in the western Bering Sea this weekend. By Saturday
night, a deep 940s mb low moving east of Kamchatka will send a
very strong front into the western Bering Sea and Aleutians.
Sustained winds well into storm force range will move first into
Shemya and Attu, then progress east with the front towards the
central Bering and out to Adak on Sunday as the core of strongest
winds weakens slightly. Gusts to hurricane force are likely to
affect the far western Aleutians and Bering as the front approaches
between Saturday night and Sunday, including in Shemya. Confidence
decreases as the front moves to the central Aleutians due to the
timing becoming less certain and the placement of the core of the
highest wind speeds potentially moving more north of the islands
and being more in the open Bering. An additional blast of winds
will ramp back up again over the southwest corner of the Bering,
to include Attu and Shemya, late on Sunday as the parent low
approaches from the south. A lot of warmer air and precipitable
water is associated with this low and rainfall could be heavily
at times.

AS/rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

High confidence in active weather across Southern Alaska and the
Bering Sea for the long-term, though confidence remains low in the
finer details at this time due to model uncertainty. Here are the
hazards being monitored for this time period:

* Heavy precipitation along Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
  William Sound from Tuesday through Thursday
* High winds across much of Southcentral Alaska from Monday into
  Tuesday

Tuesday begins with a 960-970 mb low moving north into Southcentral
Alaska. Some differences persist with timing and low position,
but there remains a consistent signal for sustained winds at storm
force (>= 50 kt) extending across much of the northern Gulf
coast, from Cordova in the east to Kodiak Island in the west.
Gusts could reach as high as hurricane force (>= 65 kt). In
addition to strong winds along the front, a tightening surface
pressure gradient between a 1020-1030 mb interior Alaska high and
this incoming low could contribute to gusty gap winds prior to the
arrival of this front, likely through Matanuska Valley and
Thompson Pass. These bear watching, especially as residual cold
air in the Copper River Basin could lead to a bora-type wind
event. Speaking of cold air, some uncertainty remains with
precipitation type as abundant moisture streams in with this
front. Will temperatures stay below freezing as this weekend's
cold air takes longer to scour out? Or could warm air advection
lead to mixed precipitation? Overall, while the position of the
low will have some effect on precipitation amounts, there seems
to be a decent downsloping signature, suggesting that much of the
precipitation will be focused along the north Gulf coast mountains
with not much making it inland into the primary Southcentral
population corridor.

Overall, the general trend for the long-term will include a warm-
up as the aforementioned Southcentral low moves in from the south
and an occluded low moves towards Western Alaska from the Bering
Sea. This warm-up will be further enhanced with the movement of
yet another low towards the forecast area by Tuesday. A North
Pacific low (with current guidance pointing towards minimum sea
level pressure of 940-950 mb) moves along the Aleutian Chain from
Tuesday through Friday. Model discrepancies with the positioning
of this low means that wind directions and speeds are difficult to
pinpoint at this time. However, operational guidance is pointing
at sustained winds of at least storm force (and perhaps even
hurricane force) for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. It's
too early yet to delve into the forecast details. However, the
outlook is for strong winds along the Bering and Aleutians, and
for elevated winds (up to gale force) and abundant moisture to
sweep across Mainland Alaska along the low's front. Precipitation
type, again, will be something to watch as this front further
warms temperatures.

KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibility will continue through the
forecast period. Winds will remain light and mainly from the
north.

CC

&&