Gale Warning 641, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
FZAK62 PAFC 190015
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191430-
315 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 mb Kamchatka low moves to 54N 169E at 944 mb by Sun 
afternoon and then moves north across the Bering into Monday 
afternoon. Its front will move gradually east across the west 
and central Aleutians through Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft building to 23 to 27
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 29 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft building to 22
to 28 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

268 
FZAK62 PAFC 191245
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200130-
345 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

A 946 mb Kamchatka low moves to 56N 171E at 948 mb by Mon morning 
and then moves north across the Bering through Tue morning. Its 
front moves east across the Bering through Mon night. A North
Pacific low pushes a front into the western Aleutians by Tue
morning.

$$

PKZ411-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft building to 23 to
27 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SE 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 14 to 22 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 AM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

240 
FZAK62 PAFC 200032
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201400-
332 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 940 mb low at 54N 168E moves north into eastern Russia by 
Tue morning. Its front moves east across the Bering through 
Mon night. A North Pacific low moves to 47N 180W for Tue 
afternoon. The front lifts into the Southern Bering by Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 31 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft 
building to 21 to 27 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

444 
FZAK62 PAFC 201156
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
256 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210315-
256 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 947 mb low at 56N 171E moves north into eastern Russia by Tue 
morning. Its front moves over the Bering and dissipates Mon night.
A North Pacific low pushes a front across the Aleutians Tue 
morning through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-210315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
256 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
256 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 45 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
256 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
256 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

550 
FZAK62 PAFC 210033
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211345-
333 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 mb low at 59N 173E continues north into eastern Russia 
by Tue morning and weakens. Its front weakens over the eastern 
Bering through Tue morning. A North Pacific low pushes a front 
across the Aleutians Tue morning through Wed afternoon. The 
950 mb low reaches 47N 178E Tue morning and moves east to 
50N 172W Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Takeaways:

1) The coldest air of the season will arrive tonight and persist
through the weekend. Expect overnight lows ranging from 10 to 15
above zero along the coast, from 10 below zero to 5 above zero
from Cook Inlet to the Mat-Su Valleys, and 25 below to 10 below
zero for the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.

3) Strong northerly gap winds will develop along the coast from
Seward to Whittier and Valdez through Sunday. Expect blowing snow
along the coast of Prince William Sound and Turnagain and
Thompson Passes. Blizzard conditions are expected for Whittier and
Thompson Pass through Saturday.

A broad, longwave trough axis extending south through the Susitna
Valley and anchoring upper-level low over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula continue to slowly lift to the north and east this
afternoon. Areas of snow showers persist from Eagle River south
across the western Kenai Peninsula, due to a now weakening meso-
low that moved onshore north of Kenai this morning. Snow showers
are also persisting across the northern Gulf, moving north to
Cordova and Glennallen due to a surface low near Middleton
Island.

These snow showers will slowly taper off from west to east, with
snow showers lingering over the eastern Copper River Basin through
Saturday as the upper-level low exits.

As the low moves east, a ridge will build over interior
Southcentral while a surface low remains in the northern Gulf.
The result will be a rapid development of northerly gap winds for
mountain passes and gaps along the coast. These wind swill peak
by early Saturday afternoon for Seward and Whittier, with the peak
of winds arriving late Saturday evening for Valdez and Thompson
Pass. The combination of recent snow from Whittier to Valdez will
result in widespread blowing snow through Saturday with blizzard
conditions expected for Whittier and Thompson Pass.

Temperatures will also continue to fall as 850 mb temperatures
fall to near -20C through the weekend. This will result in the
coldest temperatures so far this season.

Winds and coastal precipitation will likely return by Monday as
frontal system moves into the northern Gulf.

TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3)...

Nearly the entire region will continue to see fairly benign
conditions for about the next day or two. Widespread ocean effect
snow showers generated by cold air moving over the comparatively
warm sea surface will continue to drift into the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula, as well as along parts of the Southwest coast at
times. This convective activity will be further aggravated as an
upper level shortwave crosses the Bering from northwest to
southeast. Within the upper shortwave are two embedded shortwaves
that have developed on satellite imagery. These will continue
move southeast, bringing snow showers past the Pribilofs this
evening, Kuskokwim Delta overnight tonight, then into the central
and eastern Aleutian Chain with lingering showers for the
Kuskokwim Mountains, due to upslope flow for Saturday morning.
Some snow showers could make it into Bristol Bay for early
Saturday morning.

Low temperatures will likely be the coldest early on Saturday,
dipping into the single digits above/below zero away from the
immediate coastline and especially in the Bristol Bay to
Kuskokwim Valley and western Aleutian range. The Kuskokwim Delta
and coasts could see temperatures in the teens and twenties. In
general, daytime highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer.
Temperatures will gradually increase again Tuesday.

Attention from there shifts to the next notable weather maker
arriving out in the western Bering Sea this weekend. By Saturday
night, a deep 940s mb low moving east of Kamchatka will send a
very strong front into the western Bering Sea and Aleutians.
Sustained winds well into storm force range will move first into
Shemya and Attu, then progress east with the front towards the
central Bering and out to Adak on Sunday as the core of strongest
winds weakens slightly. Gusts to hurricane force are likely to
affect the far western Aleutians and Bering as the front approaches
between Saturday night and Sunday, including in Shemya. Confidence
decreases as the front moves to the central Aleutians due to the
timing becoming less certain and the placement of the core of the
highest wind speeds potentially moving more north of the islands
and being more in the open Bering. An additional blast of winds
will ramp back up again over the southwest corner of the Bering,
to include Attu and Shemya, late on Sunday as the parent low
approaches from the south. A lot of warmer air and precipitable
water is associated with this low and rainfall could be heavily
at times.

AS/rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

High confidence in active weather across Southern Alaska and the
Bering Sea for the long-term, though confidence remains low in the
finer details at this time due to model uncertainty. Here are the
hazards being monitored for this time period:

* Heavy precipitation along Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
  William Sound from Tuesday through Thursday
* High winds across much of Southcentral Alaska from Monday into
  Tuesday

Tuesday begins with a 960-970 mb low moving north into Southcentral
Alaska. Some differences persist with timing and low position,
but there remains a consistent signal for sustained winds at storm
force (>= 50 kt) extending across much of the northern Gulf
coast, from Cordova in the east to Kodiak Island in the west.
Gusts could reach as high as hurricane force (>= 65 kt). In
addition to strong winds along the front, a tightening surface
pressure gradient between a 1020-1030 mb interior Alaska high and
this incoming low could contribute to gusty gap winds prior to the
arrival of this front, likely through Matanuska Valley and
Thompson Pass. These bear watching, especially as residual cold
air in the Copper River Basin could lead to a bora-type wind
event. Speaking of cold air, some uncertainty remains with
precipitation type as abundant moisture streams in with this
front. Will temperatures stay below freezing as this weekend's
cold air takes longer to scour out? Or could warm air advection
lead to mixed precipitation? Overall, while the position of the
low will have some effect on precipitation amounts, there seems
to be a decent downsloping signature, suggesting that much of the
precipitation will be focused along the north Gulf coast mountains
with not much making it inland into the primary Southcentral
population corridor.

Overall, the general trend for the long-term will include a warm-
up as the aforementioned Southcentral low moves in from the south
and an occluded low moves towards Western Alaska from the Bering
Sea. This warm-up will be further enhanced with the movement of
yet another low towards the forecast area by Tuesday. A North
Pacific low (with current guidance pointing towards minimum sea
level pressure of 940-950 mb) moves along the Aleutian Chain from
Tuesday through Friday. Model discrepancies with the positioning
of this low means that wind directions and speeds are difficult to
pinpoint at this time. However, operational guidance is pointing
at sustained winds of at least storm force (and perhaps even
hurricane force) for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. It's
too early yet to delve into the forecast details. However, the
outlook is for strong winds along the Bering and Aleutians, and
for elevated winds (up to gale force) and abundant moisture to
sweep across Mainland Alaska along the low's front. Precipitation
type, again, will be something to watch as this front further
warms temperatures.

KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibility will continue through the
forecast period. Winds will remain light and mainly from the
north.

CC

&&