Gale Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

794 
FZAK61 PAFC 100025
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-101400-
325 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

High pressure moves out of the Gulf Fri morning. An Aleutian low 
brings a front across the Gulf of Alaska Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-101400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
325 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-101400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
325 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

601 
FZAK61 PAFC 101236
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-110200-
336 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 960 mb Aleutian low pushes a front across the Gulf of Alaska 
through Fri night. A 984 mb low at 51N 159W Sat morning moves to 
56N 147W at 980 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-110200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
336 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-110200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
336 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

142 
FZAK61 PAFC 110018
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-111345-
318 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 972 mb low near 55N 161W moves into the Kenai Peninsula through
Sat afternoon. A trough lifts through the Gulf of Alaska Sat
evening into Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-111345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-111345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 27 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.

$$

462 
FZAK61 PAFC 111249
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-120215-
349 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 985 mb low at 58N 152W moves into the Kenai Peninsula through Sat 
afternoon. A 986 mb low at 55N 152W Sat afternoon moves to 58N 146W 
by Sun morning. It lingers near Prince William Sound and weakens to 
994 mb through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-120215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
349 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-120215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
349 AM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

027 
FZAK61 PAFC 112359
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
259 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121345-
259 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 988 mb low at 58N 149W south of the Kenai Peninsula moves northeast
towards 59N 158W by Sunday afternoon before dissipating. A 990 mb
low at 53N 150W southeast of Kodiak City deepens to a 980 mb low 
at 59N 146W south of Middleton Island Sunday morning. It lingers 
near Prince William Sound and weakens to 990 mb Mon morning, 
remaining in place through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
259 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
259 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain showers
with snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

052 
FZAK61 PAFC 121228
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-130215-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 981 mb low at 59N 144W moves into Southeast Alaska for Mon 
morning. A 989 mb low forms at 60N 149W Sun afternoon and moves to 
59N 144W at 1013 mb and dissipates Tue morning. A 1010 mb low forms 
near 60N 148W on Mon afternoon and dissipates Tue morning. A front 
enters the Southwestern Gulf by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-130215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-130215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
328 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

730 
FZAK61 PAFC 130045
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-131330-
345 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 980 mb low at 59N 144W moves to 58N 139W Sun evening. A 989 mb 
low forms at 60N 149W Sun afternoon and moves to 59N 144W at 1005 
mb Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-131330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-131330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft subsiding to 
8 to 11 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
617 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the upper levels the jet stream continues to move near the
Aleutian chain and dips southeast before recurving north towards
Southeast Alaska. Several lows and shortwaves are moving along the
jet with a storm force low over the northern Pacific approaching
the western Aleutians, while a weaker low near Atka is enhancing
winds to near small crafts and producing a few snow showers.
Otherwise, colder than normal across the Aleutians and Bering
with temperatures in the 20s to near freezing. Another shortwave
is moving into southwestern Alaska producing a few snow showers.
Across the Gulf a weak surface low south of Seward along with a
shortwave trough extending across the Kenai Peninsula into the
northern Gulf is producing snow showers across the Prince William
Sound area. While an area of weak low pressure and low level
convergence is producing light snow from the western Kenai
Peninsula and north into Anchorage and parts of the Mat-Su.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance continues to be in good agreement with the synoptic
scale features. The forecast challenge will winds and
precipitation type along the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians as
a storm force low tracks near and just south of the Aleutian
chain on Thursday. Expect the warming to overwhelm the cold air in
place pretty quickly, so will lead toward lower snow accumulation
guidance along the Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light snow will continue through this afternoon with MVFR
to IFR conditions. Snow accumulation through today will be an inch
or less. The snow is expected to end by the late afternoon or
early evening hours. The big question is whether skies will clear,
in which case fog/stratus (IFR/LIFR) could quickly form - or
whether cloud cover (MVFR/VFR) will hold in and limit fog
formation. With persistent cyclonic flow aloft, seems more
favorable for some sort of higher cloud deck to hold in place.
Will keep an eye on satellite and webcams and adjust the forecast
as the more likely scenario tips its hand.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday)...

Tonight's forecast begins with the timing of snow ending. It
appears as if the current round of snow will end this evening,
then the forecast question becomes, how quickly does the cloud
cover clear out. There does not appear to be much to clear the
current cloud cover out. The Kenai Peninsula has a better chance
to clear out which will drop their temperatures much more than the
places that keep clouds to the north. Lows will drop into the
single digits in places that clear, teens for cloudy areas. The
chances for fog also ramp up where the clouds clear. Tomorrow
looks like the start of a full scale pattern change from the weak
feature cyclonic flow we have been in for the last several weeks.
First, however, is a short period of offshore gap winds in
response to a stronger system near the Panhandle. These will be
limited in strength by the lack of upper level support, peaking
in the 30 to 40 kt range.

The next system/front to affect the area is a very strong Aleutian
low pressure that swings a front into the Gulf on Friday, pushing
onto the north Gulf coast late Friday. The system as a whole will
be in a weakening phase as it approaches, but will bring gale-force
winds to much of the area, with large swells behind the front due
to dynamic fetch from the north Pacific. The Gulf coast will see
a decent period of snow from the front, but inland areas will be
mainly dry from moisture blocking and downslope drying.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

One more day of quiet but still bitterly cold conditions is on
track for most of the outlook area, save for a few widely scattered
snow showers moving in with a couple weak waves embedded in an
upper trough moving overhead this evening. For places that clear
up and allow the surface to radiate out, very cold overnight lows
the -10s will be possible overnight tonight. Areas of low stratus
that moved over the Kuskokwim Delta earlier today could keep
temperatures a little warmer, depending on how much this deck is
able to break up overnight. Otherwise, expect another partly to
mostly sunny and clear day on Thursday.

A significant shift in the pattern will begin from Thursday night
into Friday as a strong, storm force low sends a front northeast
along the Alaska Peninsula, pushing into Bristol Bay on Friday.
Strong, gusty northeast winds will develop as a tight offshore
pressure gradient develops north of the low and approaching front,
with the strongest winds gusting up to 40 mph expected to peak
across Bristol Bay by the early afternoon hours. Snow will spread
north with the front as well, mainly for areas that will favor
upslope enhancement around the Kilbucks, while much of the rest of
Bristol Bay will stay drier due to downsloping drying off of the
Aleutian and Alaska Ranges. Areas of blowing snow are likely
farther west, including around Dillingham and Togiak, until winds
begin to decrease as the front weakens and the as the parent low
approaches from the southwest early on Saturday. The heaviest
snowfall amounts will also be focused near Dillingham, with around
5 to 8 inches of new accumulation through Saturday morning. Areas
of snow will linger near the the weakening surface low as it
moves over Bristol Bay on Saturday, while colder air begins rush
back into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta and push
temperatures lower through Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

In the near term through tonight, a cluster of weak lows and
associated snow showers will continue to drift across the
Aleutians with generally weak winds. A much more active pattern
will begin by tomorrow, as a strong North Pacific low deepens to
around 955 mb on its approach to the central Aleutians. Strong
easterly winds gusting to around 75 mph at the peak remain
expected along the low's front across the central parts of the
Aleutian Chain, where a High Wind Warning remains in effect
beginning early Thursday. Storm force sustained east to northeast
winds will spread into much of the southern Bering as the low
runs up against high pressure focused over the northern Bering and
Siberia, with sustained winds of 50 kts expected to reach all the
way up to Saint George by Thursday night. The low's frontal
boundary will weaken as it moves into the eastern Aleutians and
up the southern Alaska Peninsula, resulting in slightly weaker
wind gusts peaking between 55 and 65 mph as it moves across on
Friday afternoon and evening. The High Wind Watches earlier in
effect have been cancelled, with confidence increasing that strong
and gusty winds will still occur along the front, but remain below
warning thresholds.

The other aspect of this system will be the heavy precipitation
amounts with the broad deformation band following the systems's
occluding front as it begins to wrap around the center of the low.
Temperatures will initially be cold enough for snow ahead of the
frontal passage for a few hours across most of the eastern
Aleutians, but a changeover to rain is likely within a few hours
after precipitation onset as temperatures warm through Thursday
night. The warm air following the occlusion aloft may fall just
short of reaching Adak, where several inches of very wet, slushy
snow will be possible through Thursday evening. Given that
temperatures will likely be hovering at or just above freezing for
most of the duration of heavier snow, widespread blowing snow is
not expected to develop until later on Friday morning as the low
moves into the Alaska Peninsula and as colder temperatures dive
south into the Aleutian Chain. Farther north across the Pribilofs,
temperatures will remain colder and well below freezing for the
duration of the event, resulting in blizzard conditions developing
on Thursday, especially across Saint George where the highest
snowfall amounts are expected. Please see the Blizzard Warning in
effect for the Pribilofs for additional details.

Between Friday and Saturday, more cold air will spill into the
Bering behind the low as it steadily weakens to below gale force.
Widespread heavy freezing spray will develop with this very cold,
northerly wind, with extreme freezing spray rates greater than 4
cm/hr possible close to the ice edge through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A progressive pattern will amplify by mid-week, pushing a series
of storm force lows and fronts through the forecast area. Run to
run consistency is above average, with model solutions remaining
similar to yesterday, lending confidence to the long term forecast.
Sunday morning, a low entering the Gulf of Alaska will push a
front to the north Gulf coast, bringing a round of heavy
precipitation. The track of the low will serve to keep much of
the inland areas dry, with little warm air expected to work its
way into the mainland. This will keep most precipitation snow,
though there is a chance of rain at low elevations along the
immediate coast.

Model guidance continues to indicate that a weak front on the
back side of the low will bring light snow to Southwest Alaska,
with some potential to move into Southcentral as early as Sunday
evening. This is one of the most uncertain aspects of the long
term forecast, though snow accumulations appear to be limited to
a few inches at most. Uncertainty stems from the potential for a
deep cut-off low to be centered over Western Alaska on Sunday,
which would aid in providing lift and instability for precipitation.
It would also correspond to much lower temperatures for Southwest
Alaska as well, with the EC and GEM suggesting 850 mb temperatures
as low as -30C in tandem with the cut-off low. However, the
weaker depiction of this feature in GFS suggests uncertainty in
how cold temperatures will get. Regardless, cold air will help to
drive strong winds out of gaps on the south side of the Alaska
Peninsula and along the western Gulf. These winds are likely to
gust to storm force, and in localized areas storm force winds may
be sustained. Gap winds diminish Monday night as the low in the
Gulf weakens. Shower activity decreases along the north Gulf coast
as well, and the decaying front leaves much of the southern
mainland dry by Monday night.

At the same time, a strong storm force, or potentially hurricane
force, low in the North Pacific passes south of the Aleutian
Islands. The low track has nudged a bit closer to the island chain
with a more northerly model consensus compared to yesterday. Its
front pushes across the central and eastern Aleutians on Monday,
bringing easterly winds as strong as storm force. This also looks
to be another potential significant snowfall event for the
islands, with more cold air in place over the Bering Sea ahead of
the low. Snow moves up along the Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay
and over Kodiak Island on Tuesday. There will be some potential
for the low to track into the southern Gulf, allowing its front to
move up along the north Gulf coast bringing another round of
precipitation, with only a limited amount spreading inland. Then,
a strong front off another deep low near the Kamchatka Peninsula
brings a strong southerly push of warmer air late on Tuesday. This
should be enough for precipitation to switch over to rain as the
front sweeps from the western Aleutians to the central Aleutians
through Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
         Blizzard Warning 195.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 160 179 180 185.
         Storm Warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179.
         Gale Warning 132 150 155 160 165 171 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...CQ