Tornado Warning 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

856 
WWUS55 KABQ 262325
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMC057-262345-
/O.CON.KABQ.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230526T2345Z/
Torrance-
525 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY...
    
At 524 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Encino, or 13
miles west of Vaughn, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Torrance County.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 223 and 225.
 Highway 60 between Mile Markers 251 and 263.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3454 10532 3460 10552 3471 10549 3473 10529
      3469 10529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 286DEG 15KT 3463 10545 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
411 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

After monitoring ongoing thunderstorm trends seeing storms in
Torrance County move east and then more convection forming in an
area of enhanced cumulus in E De Baca County we decided to issue
a flash flood watch for the eastern most counties in New Mexico.
These areas have already had heavy rainfall and flooding from the
last couple of days. Any additional rainfall will cause flash
flooding in the areas especially for hard hit areas like Tucumcari
to Clovis.

Satellite imagery shows enhanced cumulus development and some
strengthening storms over E De Baca County southward to east of
Roswell. There are several areas of cloud streets parallel to the
mean low level flow so it will take some lift to further cool the
mid levels of the atmosphere and further destabilize the
environment. The problem is locating potential areas of lift.
Water vapor imagery does show some weak short waves entering the
Gila and SW boot heal which could move over SE/E NM over the next
3 hours. There is some question as to how much lift there is and
timing issues. This all means that the initiation over SE NM may
be delayed into the evening hours depending upon how this all
evolves.

Overpeck

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Severe storms are expected today over much of eastern New Mexico.
There is the potential for all three hazards of tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds from these severe storms. The main area of
concern is from east of the central mountains southeast to Clovis
and Roswell. The higher probability of these storms exists from
Vaughn to Roswell and then east to the state border. The time
frame for storms to initiate is from now to about 3PM MDT. Timing
for severe storms is from 2PM through 9PM in most areas of eastern
New Mexico. The potential for severe storms continues tomorrow
and most likely into Sunday. New Mexico may have a break from
severe storms on Monday but the potential increases again
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Active unsettled weather expected today with the potential for
severe storms to once again rattle the eastern plains, as well as
push westward into and just beyond the central mts. Ample moisture
has kept an east wind persisting at KABQ through the morning,
where rich moisture has pushed through the canyon gaps. Meanwhile,
cloud cover across eastern NM is beginning to effectively erode
away, opening the sfc to thermal warming. This, in combination
with 0-6km bulk shear in excess of 45 kts, will set the stage for
initiating convection to organize and thrive into the afternoon
hours. Activity will reach as far westward as the RGV but the more
robust cells are expected across the eastern plains, where the
primary threats will be large hail, damaging wind gusts of 60 to
70 mph, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. A corridor of
enhanced conditions exists from Fort Sumner to Roswell where even
greater bulk shear near 60 kts will combine with SRH in excess of
200 m^2/s^2 to generate conditions favorable for tornadogenesis.
Storms are expected to fire in the early afternoon and persist
well into the night, where CAPE values will continue to exist in
excess of 1500 J/kg lee of the central mts. Storms should diminish
in strength by 09Z, becoming more isolated and generalized in
nature. East canyon winds are expected once again tonight across
the RGV, thanks to the intense density gradient generated by the
anticipated convective activity out east. Another day of active
weather is expected tomorrow, though conditions will be less
favorable for widespread severe weather. Still, a marginal risk of
strong to severe storms will favor the highlands east of the
central mts to the NM/TX border. While CAPE even looks to increase
to 3500 J/kg in eastern NM, an invasion of dry air will help to
limit storm development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

The upper level pattern on Sunday into Monday becomes quite
convoluted over New Mexico. Sunday is more of a transition day
with the pattern becoming more flat with some weak ridging as a
weak trough forms over west Texas. We see synoptic models carry
this trend into Monday with ridging becoming more pronounced as a
trough digs over California and the weak trough over west Texas
moves east. This pattern from Sunday into Monday will limit severe
thunderstorm activity. Sunday storms may be limited to the higher
terrain of the Sacramento Mtns and then the highlands of the
Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Activity will be isolated and even less
coverage if any on Monday.

Tuesday is a tricky day with regards to severe storm forecasting
because it is another transition day in which if you are not
paying attention it could turn into a impactful day. The synoptic
models are not handling the evolution of this ridge well with
differing solutions however a common thread they all carry is
increasing SW flow aloft depending upon how the upper level trough
over California evolves. There is certainly a non-zero risk for
severe storms in NE NM off the Highlands depending upon
moisture/instability combinations. Seeing there is not really a
change in airmass then we are expecting these ingredients to be
present to support a severe storm threat.

Wednesday and Thursday next week look to be days to really
monitor closely for severe storms in New Mexico. ECMWF/Canadian
camp of models have a negative tilt trough moving over AZ on
Wednesday with the GFS not far behind in timing. This deep S/SW
flow aloft will likely continue into Thursday so while exact
locations of storms is still a big question mark, the pattern
certainly supports severe storms over the eastern half of New
Mexico. The combination of moisture, instability, lift and shear
will need to be evaluated each of the coming days to better define
the potential. Strictly from a pattern recognition standpoint,
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will need to be watched closely
for how the potential evolves.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Sct to num SHRA/TS is expected this aftn across the central mts
and ewd, along with isold to sct SHRA/TS in the RGV. MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys will persist across several terminals, with limited
improvement aft 26/18Z. Direct hits to terminals from storms will
have the ability to create lcl MVFR/IFR. Storms will have the
potential to become severe, especially across ern NM. The primary
threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for
a few tornadoes. Convection will persist into the overnight hours
and will contribute to MVFR/IFR cigs and patchy fog along the
central mts and ewd.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

An upper level trough near the Great Basin will allow for dry
southwest flow to persist across western NM. This may lead to
localized and short duration critical fire weather conditions from
the Middle Rio Grand Valley and westward over the weekend. While
conditions remain very dry across western New Mexico, a reduction
in winds will help to keep the situation sub critical through the
majority of next week. Meanwhile, persistent pertubations aloft in
combination with ample moisture will limit fire weather concerns
across the east. Daily rounds of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week in the
eastern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  81  45  82 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  75  37  78 /  20   5   0   5
Cuba............................  43  76  44  77 /   5   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  38  77  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  38  79  40  80 /   0   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  41  77  42  78 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  50  78  50  78 /   0  20   5  20
Datil...........................  43  75  44  75 /   0   5   5  10
Reserve.........................  39  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  68  37  71 /  20  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  53  73  50  75 /  20  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  50  72  46  75 /  40  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  68  41  70 /  20  20  10  20
Red River.......................  38  62  37  66 /  30  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  36  66  34  69 /  30  20  20  30
Taos............................  44  74  40  77 /  20  10   5  10
Mora............................  46  70  43  74 /  60  30  20  30
Espanola........................  51  81  49  83 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  54  75  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  54  78  46  79 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  80  57  83 /   5  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  82  56  84 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  85  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  84  55  84 /   0  10   5  10
Belen...........................  53  86  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  56  84  54  86 /   5  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  50  86  52  86 /   0  10   5  10
Corrales........................  55  84  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  50  85  53  86 /   0  10   5  10
Placitas........................  56  80  53  82 /   5  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  83  55  85 /   5  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  54  87  56  87 /   0  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  74  49  75 /  10  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  52  77  50  78 /  10  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  50  76  47  78 /  10  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  77  44  79 /  10  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  49  73  46  75 /  30  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  48  76  50  78 /   5  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  49  77  50  78 /   5  20  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  81  55  82 /   5  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  48  74  48  74 /  10  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  49  70  46  74 /  60  30  20  30
Raton...........................  50  74  44  79 /  50  30  10  20
Springer........................  52  76  46  79 /  50  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  50  72  45  77 /  70  30  20  30
Clayton.........................  52  73  53  79 /  60  40  20  30
Roy.............................  52  71  50  76 /  80  50  30  40
Conchas.........................  56  78  54  82 /  80  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  52  77  53  80 /  70  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  55  77  54  81 /  80  40  30  30
Clovis..........................  55  75  55  80 /  60  60  30  50
Portales........................  57  77  56  83 /  60  50  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  57  80  56  83 /  70  40  20  40
Roswell.........................  62  85  60  88 /  60  40  30  30
Picacho.........................  57  79  54  81 /  20  40  20  40
Elk.............................  53  78  51  81 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ231-232-234>236.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
143 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ203-204-262015-
Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
143 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MCKINLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 142 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Ojo Encino to 10 miles
west of Torreon Navajo Mission. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ojo Encino, Regina, Torreon Navajo Mission and La Jara.

This includes Highway 550 near Mile Marker 60, and between Mile
Markers 67 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 10693 3617 10696 3616 10695 3614 10696
      3613 10695 3611 10696 3611 10695 3576 10704
      3568 10750 3621 10737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 218DEG 21KT 3601 10726 3576 10735

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MA/DP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ219-221-262030-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
207 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERNALILLO COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

At 206 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tijeras, or 11 miles east of Albuquerque, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Albuquerque, Tijeras, Cedar Crest, Sandia Park, Cedro,
Carnuel, San Antonito and Canoncito in Bernalillo County.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 166 and 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 10624 3494 10638 3501 10658 3522 10643
      3522 10631 3521 10631 3522 10629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 203DEG 31KT 3505 10645

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MA/DP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
221 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ227-228-262045-
Far Northeast Highlands-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton
Pass-
221 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX
COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Raton Pass, or near Raton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Sugarite and Sugarite Canyon State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 451 and 460.
 Highway 64 between Mile Markers 350 and 351.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 10420 3685 10452 3699 10461 3700 10425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 243DEG 16KT 3697 10449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA/DP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ221-222-262115-
Estancia Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
250 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERNALILLO AND
NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 250 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tajique, or 14 miles west of Estancia, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McIntosh, Tajique, Chilili, Escabosa and Miera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for central New
Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 10618 3467 10639 3499 10634 3487 10604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 202DEG 12KT 3475 10628

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
353 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ227-228-262230-
Far Northeast Highlands-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton
Pass-
353 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN UNION
AND NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 353 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Trinchera to Raton Crews
Airport. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Folsom, Sugarite and Raton Crews Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 437 and 457.
 Highway 64 between Mile Markers 332 and 373.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 10383 3695 10382 3680 10392 3667 10420
      3668 10461 3694 10454 3700 10403 3699 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 209DEG 18KT 3696 10401 3675 10452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA/DP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
431 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ227-228-230-262315-
Far Northeast Highlands-Union County-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas
Including Raton Pass-
431 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN UNION
AND NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Trinchera to near Raton to near Raton
Crews Airport. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Folsom, Sugarite and Raton Crews Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 436 and 455.
 Highway 64 between Mile Markers 333 and 368.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 10380 3676 10413 3666 10449 3671 10464
      3687 10455 3697 10437 3700 10425 3700 10375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 230DEG 25KT 3698 10403 3684 10435 3676 10452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA/DP