Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Albuquerque, NM

736 
WGUS75 KABQ 260729
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
129 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMC047-260830-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230526T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
129 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM MDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 129 AM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, highways,
         streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
         and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Conchas Dam, Conchas Lake State Park, Conchas, Variadero, Maes, 
  Trujillo, Bell Ranch and Trementina.

This includes the following highways...
	State Road 104 between Mile Markers 26 and 57...and
	near Mile Marker 64...and
	between Mile Markers 67 and 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 10395 3532 10445 3549 10477 3566 10478
      3575 10454 3577 10421 3575 10400 3560 10384
      3559 10384 3555 10381 3554 10380 3535 10374

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

24

494 
WGUS75 KABQ 260822
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
222 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMC047-260832-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230526T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
222 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3523 10395 3532 10445 3549 10477 3566 10478
      3575 10454 3577 10421 3575 10400 3560 10384
      3559 10384 3555 10381 3554 10380 3535 10374

$$

24

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
613 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Strong to severe storms are likely in eastern NM each afternoon and
evening through Saturday with the greatest severe potential expected
on Friday. Burn scar and localized urban flash flooding is possible
in northern and eastern NM each day through Saturday as well. There
will be a downtick in storm coverage Saturday through Tuesday then
potentially another increase mid-next week in northern and eastern
areas. Temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal averages
over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Getting off to a slightly later start early this afternoon, with
convection currently confined to the Sangre De Cristos and already
impacting the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar with potential
flash flooding. Instability and shear are down slightly compared to
yesterday as an upper level ridge pumps a bit over eastern NM.
However, sufficient instability and shear is in place to warrant a
few severe storms later this afternoon and through the evening hours
as convection moves east into deeper Gulf moisture. In addition to
the severe threat, flash flooding from torrential rainfall with
relatively slow storm motion is possible across eastern NM this
evening, but especially closer to the TX border where saturated
grounds exist from the past couple of days soaking rainfall. The
latest model solutions persist convection beyond midnight along/near
the TX border given impressive low level southeast flow providing
continual flow of Gulf moisture. Convective outflow from storms to
the east will likely create gusty east canyon/gap winds into the RGV
from Santa Fe south to Albuquerque overnight. Friday still looks to
be the more impressive day with regard to severe potential, with an
increase in shear as the ridge shifts east and gives way to
increasing southwest flow aloft. 0-6km bulk shear is modeled to
range form 40-55kts across eastern NM by late day, with sbCAPE
values of 2500-3500J/kg and LIs up to 9C. Large hail, damaging
winds, flash flooding and even tornados are all possible across
eastern NM Friday afternoon/evening, with increasing probabilities
closer to the TX border. Convection across eastern NM late Friday
will likely send outflow westward and create another gusty east
canyon/gap wind into the RGV from Santa Fe southward, but
unfortunately these short-lived moisture intrusions aren't
sufficient to get deep convection going west of the central mountain
chain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

The dryline will continue to trigger afternoon storms in eastern NM
over the weekend. The overall synoptic pattern on Saturday will be
similar to that on Friday although mid-level winds are expected to
turn slightly more southwesterly which will limit directional shear
to some extent. The NAM is showing instability and shear similar to
that on Friday although that appears to be an outlier considering
that the GFS and Euro are much less bullish on these severe
ingredients. Convection initiation is expected to be further
south (south-central NM) before drifting northeastward into the
east- central plains. However Friday afternoon/evening's storms
and their outflows may have quite a big effect on when/where
convection initiates on Saturday. The severe potential decreases
on Sunday, but scattered showers and storms are likely once again
in eastern NM. Repeated heavy rainfall in eastern NM will allow
slow-moving storms to be able to produce flash flooding more
quickly than they otherwise would.

Afternoon precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday will be
confined to the northern mountains as a mid-level ridge shifts
overhead. While overall coverage will be limited, stationary
storms over the mountains will be able to create burn scar flash
flooding. A south to southwesterly breeze is expected mid-week as
a trough ejects inland from the Pacific into the desert southwest.
Dryline storms are possible once again Wednesday and Thursday,
but the convection may be shifted eastward as drier air attempts
to intrude from the west. Temperatures will hover right around
average through mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to track
slowly eastward across northeast areas this evening, then
southward across east central areas late tonight. Some storms are
likely to produce large hail and damaging wind. In the wake of
the line of storms, additional showers are forecast to develop
across northeast and east central areas late tonight into Friday
morning. Further, widespread low clouds will produce IFR and MVFR
conditions east of the central mountain late tonight through much
or all of Friday morning (depending on the location). Like last
night into early this morning, a gusty east canyon wind is
forecast to develop in the central valley late tonight into Friday
morning. The east canyon wind will blow low clouds with MVFR
conditions into Santa Fe early Friday morning. Breezy conditions
will develop across much of the forecast area on Friday afternoon,
and another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain
chain. Spottier and drier virga showers and thunderstorms are also
expected Friday afternoon over the upper Rio Grande Valley,
northwest mountains, northwest highlands, and northern parts of
the middle Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail across western and
portions of central NM through at least the middle of next week,
while Gulf moisture fuels rounds of wetting storms from the central
mountain chain eastward. An approaching Pacific trough will bring
stronger southwest flow across western NM Friday and Saturday,
resulting in a few hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions.
Winds will trend down Sun/Mon as an upper level ridge develops and
shifts east over the area. Increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of
another Pacific trough going into the middle of next week may bring
the return of spotty critical fire weather conditions to western and
central NM, while wetting storms are likely across eastern NM along
a dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  84  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  77  40  76 /  10  10  10   5
Cuba............................  47  78  44  76 /   5   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  40  80  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  77  42  75 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  40  82  40  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  43  79  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  81  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  46  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  38  81  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  71  38  70 /  10  20  10  10
Los Alamos......................  53  76  51  74 /  10  20  10  20
Pecos...........................  50  73  48  74 /  20  50  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  44  70  43  69 /  20  30  10  20
Red River.......................  38  64  38  64 /  20  50  20  30
Angel Fire......................  36  67  37  67 /  30  60  40  30
Taos............................  44  75  43  74 /  10  30  10  20
Mora............................  44  70  45  71 /  30  60  50  30
Espanola........................  54  83  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  54  78  51  76 /  10  30  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  52  81  50  79 /  10  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  84  57  83 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  86  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  89  55  86 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  86  55  84 /   0   5   5  10
Belen...........................  52  89  53  87 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  54  87  54  85 /   0   5   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  50  89  52  86 /   0   5   0  10
Corrales........................  55  87  55  86 /   0   5   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  51  89  53  86 /   0   5   0  10
Placitas........................  55  84  54  82 /   5  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  86  55  85 /   0   5   5  10
Socorro.........................  56  90  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  78  50  75 /   5  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  51  80  51  78 /   5  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  46  80  48  78 /  10  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  81  45  79 /  10  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  48  75  47  73 /  20  50  30  20
Mountainair.....................  49  80  48  77 /   0  10   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  50  81  49  78 /   0  10   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  84  55  81 /   5  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  50  77  49  73 /  20  20  20  30
Capulin.........................  47  70  49  70 /  30  50  40  30
Raton...........................  47  75  48  75 /  30  60  30  20
Springer........................  46  76  50  76 /  50  60  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  47  71  48  72 /  40  60  50  30
Clayton.........................  53  71  54  73 /  60  40  50  30
Roy.............................  49  71  52  72 /  70  60  60  40
Conchas.........................  55  78  56  79 /  50  60  70  40
Santa Rosa......................  56  77  55  78 /  30  60  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  77  56  77 /  60  40  70  30
Clovis..........................  56  75  56  77 /  70  40  60  40
Portales........................  57  76  58  80 /  60  40  60  40
Fort Sumner.....................  58  80  58  80 /  20  40  50  30
Roswell.........................  64  87  62  88 /  20  30  30  30
Picacho.........................  57  83  55  81 /  30  40  30  30
Elk.............................  51  82  51  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
923 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SE TUCUMCARI          35.10N 103.61W
05/25/2023                   QUAY               NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
947 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             5 N UTE LAKE STATE PARK 35.44N 103.50W
05/25/2023  E1.00 INCH       HARDING            NM   STORM CHASER

            TWITTER VIDEO SHOWING ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL NORTHWEST OF LOGAN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1008 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HAIL             1 E TUCUMCARI           35.17N 103.71W
05/25/2023  E1.75 INCH       QUAY               NM   STORM CHASER

&&

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1010 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     HAIL             TUCUMCARI               35.16N 103.72W
05/25/2023  E1.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1043 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S TUCUMCARI           35.15N 103.72W
05/25/2023                   QUAY               NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     HAIL             5 N WHEATLAND           34.98N 103.36W
05/25/2023  M2.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 2.00 IN.

&&

RJH