Tornado Warning 3, NWS Albuquerque, NM

166 
WWUS55 KABQ 260237
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
837 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

NMC059-260247-
/O.CAN.KABQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230526T0315Z/
Union-
837 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3600 10305 3607 10320 3642 10304 3601 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 210DEG 17KT 3615 10306 

$$

34

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
613 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Strong to severe storms are likely in eastern NM each afternoon and
evening through Saturday with the greatest severe potential expected
on Friday. Burn scar and localized urban flash flooding is possible
in northern and eastern NM each day through Saturday as well. There
will be a downtick in storm coverage Saturday through Tuesday then
potentially another increase mid-next week in northern and eastern
areas. Temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal averages
over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Getting off to a slightly later start early this afternoon, with
convection currently confined to the Sangre De Cristos and already
impacting the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar with potential
flash flooding. Instability and shear are down slightly compared to
yesterday as an upper level ridge pumps a bit over eastern NM.
However, sufficient instability and shear is in place to warrant a
few severe storms later this afternoon and through the evening hours
as convection moves east into deeper Gulf moisture. In addition to
the severe threat, flash flooding from torrential rainfall with
relatively slow storm motion is possible across eastern NM this
evening, but especially closer to the TX border where saturated
grounds exist from the past couple of days soaking rainfall. The
latest model solutions persist convection beyond midnight along/near
the TX border given impressive low level southeast flow providing
continual flow of Gulf moisture. Convective outflow from storms to
the east will likely create gusty east canyon/gap winds into the RGV
from Santa Fe south to Albuquerque overnight. Friday still looks to
be the more impressive day with regard to severe potential, with an
increase in shear as the ridge shifts east and gives way to
increasing southwest flow aloft. 0-6km bulk shear is modeled to
range form 40-55kts across eastern NM by late day, with sbCAPE
values of 2500-3500J/kg and LIs up to 9C. Large hail, damaging
winds, flash flooding and even tornados are all possible across
eastern NM Friday afternoon/evening, with increasing probabilities
closer to the TX border. Convection across eastern NM late Friday
will likely send outflow westward and create another gusty east
canyon/gap wind into the RGV from Santa Fe southward, but
unfortunately these short-lived moisture intrusions aren't
sufficient to get deep convection going west of the central mountain
chain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

The dryline will continue to trigger afternoon storms in eastern NM
over the weekend. The overall synoptic pattern on Saturday will be
similar to that on Friday although mid-level winds are expected to
turn slightly more southwesterly which will limit directional shear
to some extent. The NAM is showing instability and shear similar to
that on Friday although that appears to be an outlier considering
that the GFS and Euro are much less bullish on these severe
ingredients. Convection initiation is expected to be further
south (south-central NM) before drifting northeastward into the
east- central plains. However Friday afternoon/evening's storms
and their outflows may have quite a big effect on when/where
convection initiates on Saturday. The severe potential decreases
on Sunday, but scattered showers and storms are likely once again
in eastern NM. Repeated heavy rainfall in eastern NM will allow
slow-moving storms to be able to produce flash flooding more
quickly than they otherwise would.

Afternoon precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday will be
confined to the northern mountains as a mid-level ridge shifts
overhead. While overall coverage will be limited, stationary
storms over the mountains will be able to create burn scar flash
flooding. A south to southwesterly breeze is expected mid-week as
a trough ejects inland from the Pacific into the desert southwest.
Dryline storms are possible once again Wednesday and Thursday,
but the convection may be shifted eastward as drier air attempts
to intrude from the west. Temperatures will hover right around
average through mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to track
slowly eastward across northeast areas this evening, then
southward across east central areas late tonight. Some storms are
likely to produce large hail and damaging wind. In the wake of
the line of storms, additional showers are forecast to develop
across northeast and east central areas late tonight into Friday
morning. Further, widespread low clouds will produce IFR and MVFR
conditions east of the central mountain late tonight through much
or all of Friday morning (depending on the location). Like last
night into early this morning, a gusty east canyon wind is
forecast to develop in the central valley late tonight into Friday
morning. The east canyon wind will blow low clouds with MVFR
conditions into Santa Fe early Friday morning. Breezy conditions
will develop across much of the forecast area on Friday afternoon,
and another round of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain
chain. Spottier and drier virga showers and thunderstorms are also
expected Friday afternoon over the upper Rio Grande Valley,
northwest mountains, northwest highlands, and northern parts of
the middle Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail across western and
portions of central NM through at least the middle of next week,
while Gulf moisture fuels rounds of wetting storms from the central
mountain chain eastward. An approaching Pacific trough will bring
stronger southwest flow across western NM Friday and Saturday,
resulting in a few hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions.
Winds will trend down Sun/Mon as an upper level ridge develops and
shifts east over the area. Increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of
another Pacific trough going into the middle of next week may bring
the return of spotty critical fire weather conditions to western and
central NM, while wetting storms are likely across eastern NM along
a dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  84  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  77  40  76 /  10  10  10   5
Cuba............................  47  78  44  76 /   5   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  40  80  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  77  42  75 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  40  82  40  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  43  79  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  81  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  46  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  38  81  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  71  38  70 /  10  20  10  10
Los Alamos......................  53  76  51  74 /  10  20  10  20
Pecos...........................  50  73  48  74 /  20  50  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  44  70  43  69 /  20  30  10  20
Red River.......................  38  64  38  64 /  20  50  20  30
Angel Fire......................  36  67  37  67 /  30  60  40  30
Taos............................  44  75  43  74 /  10  30  10  20
Mora............................  44  70  45  71 /  30  60  50  30
Espanola........................  54  83  50  81 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  54  78  51  76 /  10  30  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  52  81  50  79 /  10  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  84  57  83 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  86  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  89  55  86 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  86  55  84 /   0   5   5  10
Belen...........................  52  89  53  87 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  54  87  54  85 /   0   5   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  50  89  52  86 /   0   5   0  10
Corrales........................  55  87  55  86 /   0   5   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  51  89  53  86 /   0   5   0  10
Placitas........................  55  84  54  82 /   5  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  86  55  85 /   0   5   5  10
Socorro.........................  56  90  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  78  50  75 /   5  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  51  80  51  78 /   5  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  46  80  48  78 /  10  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  81  45  79 /  10  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  48  75  47  73 /  20  50  30  20
Mountainair.....................  49  80  48  77 /   0  10   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  50  81  49  78 /   0  10   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  84  55  81 /   5  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  50  77  49  73 /  20  20  20  30
Capulin.........................  47  70  49  70 /  30  50  40  30
Raton...........................  47  75  48  75 /  30  60  30  20
Springer........................  46  76  50  76 /  50  60  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  47  71  48  72 /  40  60  50  30
Clayton.........................  53  71  54  73 /  60  40  50  30
Roy.............................  49  71  52  72 /  70  60  60  40
Conchas.........................  55  78  56  79 /  50  60  70  40
Santa Rosa......................  56  77  55  78 /  30  60  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  77  56  77 /  60  40  70  30
Clovis..........................  56  75  56  77 /  70  40  60  40
Portales........................  57  76  58  80 /  60  40  60  40
Fort Sumner.....................  58  80  58  80 /  20  40  50  30
Roswell.........................  64  87  62  88 /  20  30  30  30
Picacho.........................  57  83  55  81 /  30  40  30  30
Elk.............................  51  82  51  80 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
742 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             12 NNW UTE LAKE STATE P 35.53N 103.56W
05/25/2023  E1.75 INCH       HARDING            NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM TWITTER.

&&

MD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
746 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             4 N TUCUMCARI           35.23N 103.73W
05/25/2023  E1.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
748 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             6 E TUCUMCARI           35.17N 103.62W
05/25/2023  E1.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK.

&&

MD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

NMZ230-231-260215-
Harding County-Union County-
748 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL HARDING
AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM MDT...

At 747 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Hayden, or 14 miles west of Amistad, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden and Rosebud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM MDT for
northeastern and east central New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 10335 3574 10337 3573 10338 3572 10340
      3588 10352 3606 10326 3583 10309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 238DEG 13KT 3584 10339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
757 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

NMZ230-260245-
Union County-
757 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL UNION
COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM MDT...

At 757 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clayton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 423 and 429.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3610 10304 3638 10343 3661 10316
      3652 10300 3650 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 312DEG 16KT 3643 10325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
802 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             4 NE TUCUMCARI          35.20N 103.67W
05/25/2023  E2.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   PUBLIC

&&

SAB