Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Albuquerque, NM

704 
WWUS55 KABQ 270309
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
909 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMC007-059-270345-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-230527T0345Z/
Union-Colfax-
909 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION AND EAST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES...

At 909 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles northeast
of Farley, or 19 miles south of Des Moines, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of west
central Union and east central Colfax Counties.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 393 and 402.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Accumulations of hail on roads can create very slick and hazardous
driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 10408 3661 10410 3670 10364 3633 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 263DEG 16KT 3649 10395 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CA

973 
WWUS55 KABQ 270315
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
915 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMC007-059-270345-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-230527T0345Z/
Union-Colfax-
915 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION AND EAST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES...

At 915 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles northeast
of Farley, or 19 miles south of Des Moines, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of west
central Union and east central Colfax Counties.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 393 and 402.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Accumulations of hail on roads can create very slick and hazardous
driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 10408 3661 10410 3670 10364 3633 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 264DEG 18KT 3649 10391 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CA

134 
WWUS55 KABQ 270320
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
920 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMC007-270330-
/O.CAN.KABQ.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-230527T0345Z/
Colfax-
920 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3638 10401 3663 10400 3670 10364 3633 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 264DEG 18KT 3649 10388 

$$

NMC059-270345-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-230527T0345Z/
Union-
920 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY...

At 920 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles northeast
of Farley, or 18 miles south of Des Moines, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of west
central Union County.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 393 and 402.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Accumulations of hail on roads can create very slick and hazardous
driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 10401 3663 10400 3670 10364 3633 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 264DEG 18KT 3649 10388 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
615 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

After monitoring ongoing thunderstorm trends seeing storms in
Torrance County move east and then more convection forming in an
area of enhanced cumulus in E De Baca County we decided to issue
a flash flood watch for the eastern most counties in New Mexico.
These areas have already had heavy rainfall and flooding from the
last couple of days. Any additional rainfall will cause flash
flooding in the areas especially for hard hit areas like Tucumcari
to Clovis.

Satellite imagery shows enhanced cumulus development and some
strengthening storms over E De Baca County southward to east of
Roswell. There are several areas of cloud streets parallel to the
mean low level flow so it will take some lift to further cool the
mid levels of the atmosphere and further destabilize the
environment. The problem is locating potential areas of lift.
Water vapor imagery does show some weak short waves entering the
Gila and SW boot heal which could move over SE/E NM over the next
3 hours. There is some question as to how much lift there is and
timing issues. This all means that the initiation over SE NM may
be delayed into the evening hours depending upon how this all
evolves.

Overpeck

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Severe storms are expected today over much of eastern New Mexico.
There is the potential for all three hazards of tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds from these severe storms. The main area of
concern is from east of the central mountains southeast to Clovis
and Roswell. The higher probability of these storms exists from
Vaughn to Roswell and then east to the state border. The time
frame for storms to initiate is from now to about 3PM MDT. Timing
for severe storms is from 2PM through 9PM in most areas of eastern
New Mexico. The potential for severe storms continues tomorrow
and most likely into Sunday. New Mexico may have a break from
severe storms on Monday but the potential increases again
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Active unsettled weather expected today with the potential for
severe storms to once again rattle the eastern plains, as well as
push westward into and just beyond the central mts. Ample moisture
has kept an east wind persisting at KABQ through the morning,
where rich moisture has pushed through the canyon gaps. Meanwhile,
cloud cover across eastern NM is beginning to effectively erode
away, opening the sfc to thermal warming. This, in combination
with 0-6km bulk shear in excess of 45 kts, will set the stage for
initiating convection to organize and thrive into the afternoon
hours. Activity will reach as far westward as the RGV but the more
robust cells are expected across the eastern plains, where the
primary threats will be large hail, damaging wind gusts of 60 to
70 mph, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. A corridor of
enhanced conditions exists from Fort Sumner to Roswell where even
greater bulk shear near 60 kts will combine with SRH in excess of
200 m^2/s^2 to generate conditions favorable for tornadogenesis.
Storms are expected to fire in the early afternoon and persist
well into the night, where CAPE values will continue to exist in
excess of 1500 J/kg lee of the central mts. Storms should diminish
in strength by 09Z, becoming more isolated and generalized in
nature. East canyon winds are expected once again tonight across
the RGV, thanks to the intense density gradient generated by the
anticipated convective activity out east. Another day of active
weather is expected tomorrow, though conditions will be less
favorable for widespread severe weather. Still, a marginal risk of
strong to severe storms will favor the highlands east of the
central mts to the NM/TX border. While CAPE even looks to increase
to 3500 J/kg in eastern NM, an invasion of dry air will help to
limit storm development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

The upper level pattern on Sunday into Monday becomes quite
convoluted over New Mexico. Sunday is more of a transition day
with the pattern becoming more flat with some weak ridging as a
weak trough forms over west Texas. We see synoptic models carry
this trend into Monday with ridging becoming more pronounced as a
trough digs over California and the weak trough over west Texas
moves east. This pattern from Sunday into Monday will limit severe
thunderstorm activity. Sunday storms may be limited to the higher
terrain of the Sacramento Mtns and then the highlands of the
Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Activity will be isolated and even less
coverage if any on Monday.

Tuesday is a tricky day with regards to severe storm forecasting
because it is another transition day in which if you are not
paying attention it could turn into a impactful day. The synoptic
models are not handling the evolution of this ridge well with
differing solutions however a common thread they all carry is
increasing SW flow aloft depending upon how the upper level trough
over California evolves. There is certainly a non-zero risk for
severe storms in NE NM off the Highlands depending upon
moisture/instability combinations. Seeing there is not really a
change in airmass then we are expecting these ingredients to be
present to support a severe storm threat.

Wednesday and Thursday next week look to be days to really
monitor closely for severe storms in New Mexico. ECMWF/Canadian
camp of models have a negative tilt trough moving over AZ on
Wednesday with the GFS not far behind in timing. This deep S/SW
flow aloft will likely continue into Thursday so while exact
locations of storms is still a big question mark, the pattern
certainly supports severe storms over the eastern half of New
Mexico. The combination of moisture, instability, lift and shear
will need to be evaluated each of the coming days to better define
the potential. Strictly from a pattern recognition standpoint,
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will need to be watched closely
for how the potential evolves.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast along
and east of the central mountain chain again tonight, some of them
will be capable of large hail, erratic wind gusts over 50 KT,
tornadoes, and flash flooding. The latest mesoscale models depict
clusters of thunderstorms crossing east central and southeast
areas until 3 or 4 AM MDT. Another very slow moving cluster of
thunderstorms is forecast to develop east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains during the late night hours and linger into the early
morning Saturday. Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds
and fog are also forecast east of the central mountain chain
late tonight through much of Saturday morning, and also in Santa
Fe. The strong east wind below canyons opening into the central
valley from Santa southward is forecast by models to weaken during
the late night hours; however, gusty outflow from storms on the
eastern plains could keep the east canyon wind going throughout
the night into Saturday morning (like last night). Another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected along and east of
the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening, with
more isolated and drier activity expected in the central valley
and northwest mountains during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

An upper level trough near the Great Basin will allow for dry
southwest flow to persist across western NM. This may lead to
localized and short duration critical fire weather conditions from
the Middle Rio Grand Valley and westward over the weekend. While
conditions remain very dry across western New Mexico, a reduction
in winds will help to keep the situation sub critical through the
majority of next week. Meanwhile, persistent pertubations aloft in
combination with ample moisture will limit fire weather concerns
across the east. Daily rounds of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week in the
eastern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  81  45  82 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  75  37  78 /  20   5   0   5
Cuba............................  43  76  44  77 /   5   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  38  77  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  38  79  40  80 /   0   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  41  77  42  78 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  50  78  50  78 /   0  20   5  20
Datil...........................  43  75  44  75 /   0   5   5  10
Reserve.........................  39  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  68  37  71 /  20  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  53  73  50  75 /  20  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  50  72  46  75 /  40  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  68  41  70 /  20  20  10  20
Red River.......................  38  62  37  66 /  30  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  36  66  34  69 /  30  20  20  30
Taos............................  44  74  40  77 /  20  10   5  10
Mora............................  46  70  43  74 /  60  30  20  30
Espanola........................  51  81  49  83 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  54  75  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  54  78  46  79 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  80  57  83 /   5  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  82  56  84 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  85  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  84  55  84 /   0  10   5  10
Belen...........................  53  86  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  56  84  54  86 /   5  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  50  86  52  86 /   0  10   5  10
Corrales........................  55  84  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  50  85  53  86 /   0  10   5  10
Placitas........................  56  80  53  82 /   5  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  83  55  85 /   5  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  54  87  56  87 /   0  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  74  49  75 /  10  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  52  77  50  78 /  10  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  50  76  47  78 /  10  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  77  44  79 /  10  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  49  73  46  75 /  30  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  48  76  50  78 /   5  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  49  77  50  78 /   5  20  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  81  55  82 /   5  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  48  74  48  74 /  10  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  49  70  46  74 /  60  30  20  30
Raton...........................  50  74  44  79 /  50  30  10  20
Springer........................  52  76  46  79 /  50  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  50  72  45  77 /  70  30  20  30
Clayton.........................  52  73  53  79 /  60  40  20  30
Roy.............................  52  71  50  76 /  80  50  30  40
Conchas.........................  56  78  54  82 /  80  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  52  77  53  80 /  70  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  55  77  54  81 /  80  40  30  30
Clovis..........................  55  75  55  80 /  60  60  30  50
Portales........................  57  77  56  83 /  60  50  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  57  80  56  83 /  70  40  20  40
Roswell.........................  62  85  60  88 /  60  40  30  30
Picacho.........................  57  79  54  81 /  20  40  20  40
Elk.............................  53  78  51  81 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ231-232-234>236.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
809 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             7 SE ENCINO             34.60N 105.35W
05/26/2023  U1.00 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0712 PM     HAIL             4 S ENCINO              34.60N 105.46W
05/26/2023  U1.25 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

0714 PM     HAIL             3 S ENCINO              34.61N 105.46W
05/26/2023  U1.25 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

0729 PM     HAIL             9 NE RANCHVALE          34.60N 103.21W
05/26/2023  U1.50 INCH       CURRY              NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: PING PONG BALL (1.50
            IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
810 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE CLOVIS            34.42N 103.16W
05/26/2023                   CURRY              NM   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GW0819 CLOVIS.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
814 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             8 WNW PLEASANT HILL     34.56N 103.20W
05/26/2023  E0.75 INCH       CURRY              NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0631 PM     HAIL             7 WNW PLEASANT HILL     34.55N 103.20W
05/26/2023  E0.75 INCH       CURRY              NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0634 PM     HAIL             7 WNW PLEASANT HILL     34.55N 103.20W
05/26/2023  E0.75 INCH       CURRY              NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0647 PM     HAIL             8 NNE RANCHVALE         34.60N 103.27W
05/26/2023  E0.75 INCH       CURRY              NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0730 PM     HAIL             7 ESE ENCINO            34.60N 105.35W
05/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
822 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             6 WNW ENCINO            34.68N 105.56W
05/26/2023  M2.70 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   PUBLIC

&&

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
833 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ230-270300-
Union County-
833 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM MDT...

At 833 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles northeast of Grenville to 8 miles
northwest of Clayton Lake State Park. Movement was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10319 3662 10316 3651 10337 3670 10361
      3700 10350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 190DEG 17KT 3677 10349 3663 10343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA/DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
834 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE CLOVIS            34.49N 103.18W
05/26/2023                   CURRY              NM   STORM CHASER

            ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER ON ROADS
            NEAR COUNTY ROAD 16 AND CURRY CO ROAD 1.

&&