Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
411 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

After monitoring ongoing thunderstorm trends seeing storms in
Torrance County move east and then more convection forming in an
area of enhanced cumulus in E De Baca County we decided to issue
a flash flood watch for the eastern most counties in New Mexico.
These areas have already had heavy rainfall and flooding from the
last couple of days. Any additional rainfall will cause flash
flooding in the areas especially for hard hit areas like Tucumcari
to Clovis.

Satellite imagery shows enhanced cumulus development and some
strengthening storms over E De Baca County southward to east of
Roswell. There are several areas of cloud streets parallel to the
mean low level flow so it will take some lift to further cool the
mid levels of the atmosphere and further destabilize the
environment. The problem is locating potential areas of lift.
Water vapor imagery does show some weak short waves entering the
Gila and SW boot heal which could move over SE/E NM over the next
3 hours. There is some question as to how much lift there is and
timing issues. This all means that the initiation over SE NM may
be delayed into the evening hours depending upon how this all
evolves.

Overpeck

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Severe storms are expected today over much of eastern New Mexico.
There is the potential for all three hazards of tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds from these severe storms. The main area of
concern is from east of the central mountains southeast to Clovis
and Roswell. The higher probability of these storms exists from
Vaughn to Roswell and then east to the state border. The time
frame for storms to initiate is from now to about 3PM MDT. Timing
for severe storms is from 2PM through 9PM in most areas of eastern
New Mexico. The potential for severe storms continues tomorrow
and most likely into Sunday. New Mexico may have a break from
severe storms on Monday but the potential increases again
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Active unsettled weather expected today with the potential for
severe storms to once again rattle the eastern plains, as well as
push westward into and just beyond the central mts. Ample moisture
has kept an east wind persisting at KABQ through the morning,
where rich moisture has pushed through the canyon gaps. Meanwhile,
cloud cover across eastern NM is beginning to effectively erode
away, opening the sfc to thermal warming. This, in combination
with 0-6km bulk shear in excess of 45 kts, will set the stage for
initiating convection to organize and thrive into the afternoon
hours. Activity will reach as far westward as the RGV but the more
robust cells are expected across the eastern plains, where the
primary threats will be large hail, damaging wind gusts of 60 to
70 mph, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. A corridor of
enhanced conditions exists from Fort Sumner to Roswell where even
greater bulk shear near 60 kts will combine with SRH in excess of
200 m^2/s^2 to generate conditions favorable for tornadogenesis.
Storms are expected to fire in the early afternoon and persist
well into the night, where CAPE values will continue to exist in
excess of 1500 J/kg lee of the central mts. Storms should diminish
in strength by 09Z, becoming more isolated and generalized in
nature. East canyon winds are expected once again tonight across
the RGV, thanks to the intense density gradient generated by the
anticipated convective activity out east. Another day of active
weather is expected tomorrow, though conditions will be less
favorable for widespread severe weather. Still, a marginal risk of
strong to severe storms will favor the highlands east of the
central mts to the NM/TX border. While CAPE even looks to increase
to 3500 J/kg in eastern NM, an invasion of dry air will help to
limit storm development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

The upper level pattern on Sunday into Monday becomes quite
convoluted over New Mexico. Sunday is more of a transition day
with the pattern becoming more flat with some weak ridging as a
weak trough forms over west Texas. We see synoptic models carry
this trend into Monday with ridging becoming more pronounced as a
trough digs over California and the weak trough over west Texas
moves east. This pattern from Sunday into Monday will limit severe
thunderstorm activity. Sunday storms may be limited to the higher
terrain of the Sacramento Mtns and then the highlands of the
Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Activity will be isolated and even less
coverage if any on Monday.

Tuesday is a tricky day with regards to severe storm forecasting
because it is another transition day in which if you are not
paying attention it could turn into a impactful day. The synoptic
models are not handling the evolution of this ridge well with
differing solutions however a common thread they all carry is
increasing SW flow aloft depending upon how the upper level trough
over California evolves. There is certainly a non-zero risk for
severe storms in NE NM off the Highlands depending upon
moisture/instability combinations. Seeing there is not really a
change in airmass then we are expecting these ingredients to be
present to support a severe storm threat.

Wednesday and Thursday next week look to be days to really
monitor closely for severe storms in New Mexico. ECMWF/Canadian
camp of models have a negative tilt trough moving over AZ on
Wednesday with the GFS not far behind in timing. This deep S/SW
flow aloft will likely continue into Thursday so while exact
locations of storms is still a big question mark, the pattern
certainly supports severe storms over the eastern half of New
Mexico. The combination of moisture, instability, lift and shear
will need to be evaluated each of the coming days to better define
the potential. Strictly from a pattern recognition standpoint,
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will need to be watched closely
for how the potential evolves.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri May 26 2023

Sct to num SHRA/TS is expected this aftn across the central mts
and ewd, along with isold to sct SHRA/TS in the RGV. MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys will persist across several terminals, with limited
improvement aft 26/18Z. Direct hits to terminals from storms will
have the ability to create lcl MVFR/IFR. Storms will have the
potential to become severe, especially across ern NM. The primary
threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for
a few tornadoes. Convection will persist into the overnight hours
and will contribute to MVFR/IFR cigs and patchy fog along the
central mts and ewd.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023

An upper level trough near the Great Basin will allow for dry
southwest flow to persist across western NM. This may lead to
localized and short duration critical fire weather conditions from
the Middle Rio Grand Valley and westward over the weekend. While
conditions remain very dry across western New Mexico, a reduction
in winds will help to keep the situation sub critical through the
majority of next week. Meanwhile, persistent pertubations aloft in
combination with ample moisture will limit fire weather concerns
across the east. Daily rounds of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week in the
eastern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  81  45  82 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  75  37  78 /  20   5   0   5
Cuba............................  43  76  44  77 /   5   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  38  77  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  38  79  40  80 /   0   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  41  77  42  78 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  50  78  50  78 /   0  20   5  20
Datil...........................  43  75  44  75 /   0   5   5  10
Reserve.........................  39  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  68  37  71 /  20  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  53  73  50  75 /  20  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  50  72  46  75 /  40  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  68  41  70 /  20  20  10  20
Red River.......................  38  62  37  66 /  30  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  36  66  34  69 /  30  20  20  30
Taos............................  44  74  40  77 /  20  10   5  10
Mora............................  46  70  43  74 /  60  30  20  30
Espanola........................  51  81  49  83 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  54  75  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  54  78  46  79 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  80  57  83 /   5  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  82  56  84 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  85  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  84  55  84 /   0  10   5  10
Belen...........................  53  86  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  56  84  54  86 /   5  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  50  86  52  86 /   0  10   5  10
Corrales........................  55  84  54  86 /   0  10   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  50  85  53  86 /   0  10   5  10
Placitas........................  56  80  53  82 /   5  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  56  83  55  85 /   5  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  54  87  56  87 /   0  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  74  49  75 /  10  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  52  77  50  78 /  10  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  50  76  47  78 /  10  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  77  44  79 /  10  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  49  73  46  75 /  30  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  48  76  50  78 /   5  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  49  77  50  78 /   5  20  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  81  55  82 /   5  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  48  74  48  74 /  10  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  49  70  46  74 /  60  30  20  30
Raton...........................  50  74  44  79 /  50  30  10  20
Springer........................  52  76  46  79 /  50  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  50  72  45  77 /  70  30  20  30
Clayton.........................  52  73  53  79 /  60  40  20  30
Roy.............................  52  71  50  76 /  80  50  30  40
Conchas.........................  56  78  54  82 /  80  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  52  77  53  80 /  70  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  55  77  54  81 /  80  40  30  30
Clovis..........................  55  75  55  80 /  60  60  30  50
Portales........................  57  77  56  83 /  60  50  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  57  80  56  83 /  70  40  20  40
Roswell.........................  62  85  60  88 /  60  40  30  30
Picacho.........................  57  79  54  81 /  20  40  20  40
Elk.............................  53  78  51  81 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ231-232-234>236.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...12

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