Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Deeper moisture and a favorable weather pattern will
result in more widespread rainfall through this coming work week.
This wetter period could result in flooding and flash flooding
across the area the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms managed to redevelop late this morning
with most of the activity already producing heavy rainfall across
parts of southwest Cochise and eastern Santa Cruz counties. As
another disturbance approaches from the east, additional showers and
thunderstorms will form across SE AZ through late tonight. A wet
flow pattern will remain in place this coming work week with day-to-
day fluctuations in the areal coverage of thunderstorms expected.
Heavy rainfall will continue to be the main concern with elevated
flows in normally dry washes and small streams. After a few days of
rain, some of the larger washes could experience significant flows
by the end of the week. The rain chances will be enhanced and
sustained as an upper low/inverted trough currently positioned over
the southern tip of Texas approaches the area on Monday. Latest
models keep some form of this feature nearby through Wednesday
before tracking farther west of the Baja California Peninsula by
early Thursday. That said, a flash flood watch remains in effect for
all of SE AZ through late Tuesday and may need to be extended to
include Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, cloudiness and more
widespread rainfall will help keep daytime temperatures closer to or
slightly below seasonable readings.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
Isolated to Scattered TSRA. Localized +TSRA likely. Lower cigs
between 4-7k ft AGL can be expected around precipitation,
including gusty winds in excess of 40 kts. Otherwise, cloud bases
range 8-12k ft AGL with diurnal sfc winds generally less than 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deeper moisture in place will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, providing a greater potential for heavy
rainfall. Most locations should see at least a wetting rain into
next week, with many locations seeing areal averages greater than
one half inch. Strong and erratic outflow winds accompany the
stronger storms, with otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for AZZ501>515.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1218 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZZ503-513-242000-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
1218 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Santa
Cruz County through 100 PM MST...

At 1218 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Patagonia, or 19 miles east of Nogales, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of east central Santa
Cruz County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 11054 3141 11061 3147 11080 3161 11064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 135DEG 7KT 3147 11063

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1229 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZZ507-242000-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-
1229 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Cochise
County through 100 PM MST...

At 1228 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tombstone, or 16 miles northeast of Sierra Vista, moving northwest at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tombstone and Fairbank.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 311 and 325.
 Route 82 between mile markers 59 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 10994 3159 11010 3173 11025 3185 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 149DEG 6KT 3169 11006

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1252 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW BISBEE            31.46N 109.94W
07/24/2022                   COCHISE            AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROCKS ON ROADWAY...LIKELY FLASH FLOODING
            FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER 3 IN SPOTS.

&&

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE SIERRA VISTA       31.51N 110.26W
07/24/2022  M1.00 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN 40 MINS.

&&

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZZ506-507-514-242230-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-
247 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pima
and southeastern Pinal Counties through 330 PM MST...

At 247 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven, or 14 miles southeast of Oracle. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 11050 3234 11054 3244 11078 3256 11072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 119DEG 3KT 3244 11066

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JRM