Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tucson, AZ

055 
WGUS75 KTWC 242144 RRA
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
244 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZC003-242154-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220724T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
244 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 PM MST Tuesday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3139 11038 3149 11042 3160 11038 3160 11030
      3152 11023 3145 11021 3139 11029

$$

RAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
955 AM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Deeper moisture will mean an increase in thunderstorms
most of this week. Upcoming storms will carry an increasing flash
flood threat along with strong winds and lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies continued to clear across SE AZ in the wake of a
thunderstorm complex that developed overnight and shifted over
central and western AZ this morning. The subsidence in the wake of
this complex should be short-lived as a disturbance over the Texas
Big Bend approaches from the east and differential surface heating
kicks in. A few showers and thunderstorms were already evident
around Marfa Texas in association with this disturbance. That said,
high resolution models were still showing thunderstorms regenerating
this afternoon and continuing through the nighttime hours tonight.
No updates necessary this morning. Please refer to the previous
discussion in this product for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/18Z.
Isolated to Scattered TSRA. Localized +TSRA likely. Lower cigs
between 4-7k ft AGL can be expected around precipitation,
including gusty winds in excess of 40 kts. Otherwise, cloud bases
range 8-12k ft AGL with diurnal sfc winds generally less than 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing moisture will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, providing a greater potential for heavy
rainfall. Most locations should see at least a wetting rain into
next week, with many locations seeing areal averages greater than
one half inch. Strong and erratic outflow winds accompany the
stronger storms, with otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...\Issued at 307 AM MST Sun Jul 24 2022\
Broad high pressure across southern tier states with a high center
consolidated over northern New Mexico this morning. The resulting
southeasterly flow continues to import deeper moisture into SE AZ,
with a lower level surge continuing from the south. Precipitable
water values range from around 1.2 inches near the NM border (a bit
of mid level drying across southern NM), to 1.8 inches just west of
Tucson. Surface dewpoints have reached deep monsoon values in the
60s to lower 70s, up 3 to 8 degrees over the past 24 hrs. We'll
continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms in the early
morning hours with strong wind and heavy rain still a threat.

Latest meso model trends suggest an elevated storm environment again
by mid afternoon as the flow remains brisk enough to reset.
Elevated shear and convective potentials should mean more wet
microburst activity from individual storms. With weak upper level
diffluence and vigorous outflows, MCS activity in our area remains a
concern. We will have one or two 6-8 hr down periods over the next
few days, but overall the threat for flash flooding will be elevated
the first half of the week.

By mid week, ensembles and ensemble means lean toward a new ridge
position through the Great Basin with a high center reconsolidating
to our northwest. Even with a less favorable synoptic position for
the high, initial upstream mid level flow will still be moist for a
few days, with plenty of boundary layer moisture to recirculate
along with some flavor of lower level push continuing from the
south. Most days look busy into next weekend, with temperatures back
down to near or below average.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   Flood Watch from 1 PM MST this afternoon through Tuesday
   afternoon for AZZ501>515.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1218 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZZ503-513-242000-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
1218 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Santa
Cruz County through 100 PM MST...

At 1218 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Patagonia, or 19 miles east of Nogales, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of east central Santa
Cruz County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 11054 3141 11061 3147 11080 3161 11064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 135DEG 7KT 3147 11063

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1229 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZZ507-242000-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-
1229 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Cochise
County through 100 PM MST...

At 1228 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tombstone, or 16 miles northeast of Sierra Vista, moving northwest at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tombstone and Fairbank.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 311 and 325.
 Route 82 between mile markers 59 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 10994 3159 11010 3173 11025 3185 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 149DEG 6KT 3169 11006

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1252 PM MST SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW BISBEE            31.46N 109.94W
07/24/2022                   COCHISE            AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROCKS ON ROADWAY...LIKELY FLASH FLOODING
            FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER 3 IN SPOTS.

&&

JRM