Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

290 
WGUS55 KTWC 242028
FFWTWC
AZC003-242145-
/O.EXT.KTWC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220724T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
128 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

The National Weather Service in Tucson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  South Central Cochise County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 245 PM MST.

* At 128 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bisbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 11009 3158 11002 3148 10988 3141 10997

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

RAH

553 
WGUS75 KTWC 242144
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
244 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

AZC003-242154-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220724T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
244 PM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 PM MST Tuesday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3150 11009 3158 11002 3148 10988 3141 10997

$$

RAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
955 AM MST Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Deeper moisture will mean an increase in thunderstorms
most of this week. Upcoming storms will carry an increasing flash
flood threat along with strong winds and lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies continued to clear across SE AZ in the wake of a
thunderstorm complex that developed overnight and shifted over
central and western AZ this morning. The subsidence in the wake of
this complex should be short-lived as a disturbance over the Texas
Big Bend approaches from the east and differential surface heating
kicks in. A few showers and thunderstorms were already evident
around Marfa Texas in association with this disturbance. That said,
high resolution models were still showing thunderstorms regenerating
this afternoon and continuing through the nighttime hours tonight.
No updates necessary this morning. Please refer to the previous
discussion in this product for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/18Z.
Isolated to Scattered TSRA. Localized +TSRA likely. Lower cigs
between 4-7k ft AGL can be expected around precipitation,
including gusty winds in excess of 40 kts. Otherwise, cloud bases
range 8-12k ft AGL with diurnal sfc winds generally less than 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing moisture will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, providing a greater potential for heavy
rainfall. Most locations should see at least a wetting rain into
next week, with many locations seeing areal averages greater than
one half inch. Strong and erratic outflow winds accompany the
stronger storms, with otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...\Issued at 307 AM MST Sun Jul 24 2022\
Broad high pressure across southern tier states with a high center
consolidated over northern New Mexico this morning. The resulting
southeasterly flow continues to import deeper moisture into SE AZ,
with a lower level surge continuing from the south. Precipitable
water values range from around 1.2 inches near the NM border (a bit
of mid level drying across southern NM), to 1.8 inches just west of
Tucson. Surface dewpoints have reached deep monsoon values in the
60s to lower 70s, up 3 to 8 degrees over the past 24 hrs. We'll
continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms in the early
morning hours with strong wind and heavy rain still a threat.

Latest meso model trends suggest an elevated storm environment again
by mid afternoon as the flow remains brisk enough to reset.
Elevated shear and convective potentials should mean more wet
microburst activity from individual storms. With weak upper level
diffluence and vigorous outflows, MCS activity in our area remains a
concern. We will have one or two 6-8 hr down periods over the next
few days, but overall the threat for flash flooding will be elevated
the first half of the week.

By mid week, ensembles and ensemble means lean toward a new ridge
position through the Great Basin with a high center reconsolidating
to our northwest. Even with a less favorable synoptic position for
the high, initial upstream mid level flow will still be moist for a
few days, with plenty of boundary layer moisture to recirculate
along with some flavor of lower level push continuing from the
south. Most days look busy into next weekend, with temperatures back
down to near or below average.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   Flood Watch from 1 PM MST this afternoon through Tuesday
   afternoon for AZZ501>515.

&&

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