Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Tucson, AZ

337 
WWUS55 KTWC 222252
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
352 PM MST Mon Aug 22 2022

AZC003-009-222301-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-220822T2300Z/
Graham-Cochise-
352 PM MST Mon Aug 22 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND NORTH
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and has exited the warned area toward the Galiuro Mountains. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  

However small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible 
with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3250 11007 3269 11003 3250 10966 3233 10966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 044DEG 9KT 3244 11002 

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
950 AM MST Mon Aug 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue this
coming week into next weekend although the heavy rainfall threat
will be much less than this past weekend. Temperatures will be
warmer but remain a bit below below normal during the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12z 500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery showed
weak upper level trofiness SE of the forecast area extending from
southern NM SW to central Sonora MX. The mid-level high was
centered over central CA. The steering flow today will be N/NE
with storms developing over the higher terrain east and south of
Tucson and propagating to the S/SW. Main concerns again today will
be strong gusty winds and localized heavy rain and flash flooding
with the ground rather saturated in spots.

The upper level high migrates from NW of the area today to near the
4-corners area by Wednesday, a more preferred location for us.
Atmospheric moisture remains elevated and with the more favorable
flow regime we should see an uptick in convection across much of the
area once again for the middle of the week.

Beyond that the flow gradually becomes westerly as the high opens up
into a longer wave ridge through the weekend which will allow for
some atmospheric drying to occur. Still will have afternoon/early
evening convection around, just less of it across the forecast area.

Through this entire period afternoon temperatures will be warmer than
they have been recently, however still remaining a bit below the
long term average. Highs today at or a few degrees warmer than
Sunday. See previous discussion below for forecast details after
today into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
Isolated to scattered storms developing this afternoon mainly east
and south of Tucson with SCT cloud decks at 6k-9k ft AGL thru
23/04Z. The stronger SHRA/TSRA could reduce visibilities in heavy
downpours, briefly lower CIGS to 3k-6k ft AGL and produce gusts to
40+ kts. Expect skies to slowly clear aft 23/04Z. Storms developing
again Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, winds will follow diurnal
trends at speeds of 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
this upcoming weekend. Primary threats will be strong winds,
lightning, and flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity,
wind trends will remain light and follow typical diurnal trends.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall over the Gila Basin in New Mexico over the
past 48+ hours has led to a significant increase in the flow in
the Gila River. River Flood warnings and advisories have been
posted along the Gila in AZ as a result.

The gauge at Duncan crested around 530 am and is slowly falling.
As of 930 am, the water level was at 21.9 feet with flood stage
being 20 feet. Significant rises are still expected downstream
later today with the gauge at Solomon peaking just below 21 feet
later this afternoon.

This high flow will continue to slowly move downstream as the
week progresses.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The upper level high migrates from NW of the
area today to near the 4-corners area by Wednesday, a more
preferred location for us. Atmospheric moisture remains elevated
and with the more favorable flow regime we should see an uptick in
convection across much of the area once again for the middle of
the week.

Beyond that the flow gradually becomes westerly as the high opens up
into a longer wave ridge through the weekend which will allow for
some atmospheric drying to occur. Still will have afternoon/early
evening convection around, just less of it across the forecast area.

Through this entire period afternoon temperatures will be warmer than
they have been recently, however still remaining a bit below the
long term average.

&&

.TWC NON-FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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