Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
349 PM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue this
coming week into next weekend although the heavy rainfall threat
will be much less than this past weekend. Temperatures will be
well below normal today then follow a warming trend during the
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...500 mb analysis this morning showed weak trofiness
over far SE AZ, likely the remants of the tropical wave that
impacted the area Fri/Sat, and a mid-level high centered off the
srn CA cst. This put the western half of the forecast area under
N/NE flow aloft which will have transitioned east across the area
today as the above mentioned weak trof moved east into srn NM.
21/12z Tucson showed steering flow out of the N/NE, upper level
winds out of the W/SW and PW value still very moist at 1.81" but
down from the near record levels of 24 hours.

Mid-afternoon radar showed isolated storms south and east of
Tucson. Latest HRRR propagates widely scattered storms S/SW across
the lower elevations thru midnight. Main threats will be strong
gusty winds and localized flash flooding.

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue this week
into next weekend. Primary threats each day will be strong gusty
winds, lighting and localized flash flooding.

Temperatures will be warmer Monday then run a few degrees below
normal for the remainder of the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
Scattered cloud decks at 6k-9k ft AGL thru 22/04Z with WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA. The stronger SHRA/TSRA could reduce visibilities in
heavy downpours, briefly lower CIGS to 3k-6k ft AGL and produce
gusts to 40+ kts. Expect skies to slowly clear aft 22/04Z. Storms
developing again Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds will follow
diurnal trends at speeds of 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
next weekend. Primary threats will be strong winds, lightning,
and flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind trends
will remain light and follow typical diurnal trends.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall over the Gila Basin in New Mexico over the
past 36-48 hours has led to a significant increase in the flow in
the Gila River. River Flood warnings have been posted in New
Mexico for the Gila River with the higher flows moving downstream
through Duncan over the next 12 hours. The latest forecast from
the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has water levels
remaining below flood stage at Duncan with the water level
creasting between 10 pm and midnight then gradually falling
through Monday morning.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
716 PM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

AZZ505-506-220300-
Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-South Central
Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
716 PM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pinal
County through 800 PM MST...

At 715 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong to severe
thunderstorm near Hayden, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kearny and Dudleyville.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 77 between mile markers 123 and 134.
 Route 177 between mile markers 139 and 147.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 11078 3299 11076 3300 11076 3303 11073
      3306 11071 3300 11065 3278 11072 3299 11114
      3311 11086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 045DEG 18KT 3301 11080

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

WJM