Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
349 PM MST Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue this
coming week into next weekend although the heavy rainfall threat
will be much less than this past weekend. Temperatures will be
well below normal today then follow a warming trend during the
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...500 mb analysis this morning showed weak trofiness
over far SE AZ, likely the remants of the tropical wave that
impacted the area Fri/Sat, and a mid-level high centered off the
srn CA cst. This put the western half of the forecast area under
N/NE flow aloft which will have transitioned east across the area
today as the above mentioned weak trof moved east into srn NM.
21/12z Tucson showed steering flow out of the N/NE, upper level
winds out of the W/SW and PW value still very moist at 1.81" but
down from the near record levels of 24 hours.

Mid-afternoon radar showed isolated storms south and east of
Tucson. Latest HRRR propagates widely scattered storms S/SW across
the lower elevations thru midnight. Main threats will be strong
gusty winds and localized flash flooding.

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue this week
into next weekend. Primary threats each day will be strong gusty
winds, lighting and localized flash flooding.

Temperatures will be warmer Monday then run a few degrees below
normal for the remainder of the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
Scattered cloud decks at 6k-9k ft AGL thru 22/04Z with WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA. The stronger SHRA/TSRA could reduce visibilities in
heavy downpours, briefly lower CIGS to 3k-6k ft AGL and produce
gusts to 40+ kts. Expect skies to slowly clear aft 22/04Z. Storms
developing again Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds will follow
diurnal trends at speeds of 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
next weekend. Primary threats will be strong winds, lightning,
and flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind trends
will remain light and follow typical diurnal trends.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall over the Gila Basin in New Mexico over the
past 36-48 hours has led to a significant increase in the flow in
the Gila River. River Flood warnings have been posted in New
Mexico for the Gila River with the higher flows moving downstream
through Duncan over the next 12 hours. The latest forecast from
the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has water levels
remaining below flood stage at Duncan with the water level
creasting between 10 pm and midnight then gradually falling
through Monday morning.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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