Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

734 
WGUS75 KTWC 232317
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
417 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

AZC019-240045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220624T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
417 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 417 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Central Pima County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 11144 3183 11136 3173 11152 3183 11162

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AWH

088 
WGUS75 KTWC 240039
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
539 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

AZC019-240049-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220624T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
539 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3187 11144 3183 11136 3173 11152 3183 11162

$$

AWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
likely have a different character and affect different areas each
day. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be
near or a bit cooler than average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Well, today has played along according to the script
with the first storms popping over central Pima county at noon. HRRR
has done en excellent job highlighting this since yesterday. They
are filling in nicely around other areas. Some locally heavy rains
have been reported with an inch plus over northern parts of the
Contreras Fire. Besides the locally heavy rain threat we will still
need to watch for strong outflows, particularity Pinal county where
the DCAPE is the highest. That would lead to blowing dust issues at a
minimum. If the HRRR continues to be fairly correct with what is
going on, interacting outflows will maintain convection well into the
night before it settles down, mainly west of Tucson.

Looking forward, the various CAMs (especially the HRRR) are fairly
excited about tomorrow afternoon with an early start once again.
That will depend on how well we clear the clouds by tomorrow morning
as we will need the solar insolation to recharge. PW should be a bit
higher further east so potential for decent rainers exists.

Saturday through next week we maintain a favorable monsoon flow
pattern which, if modeled correctly will keep high PW levels over
the area, near the 80-90% percentile level for late June. Ensembles
continue to suggest enhanced activity Sunday thanks to an easterly
wave, then another enhanced day or two next week into the following
weekend thanks to additional waves. Thanks to the moisture and
convection, high temperatures will generally be a bit below average
Saturday onward, although cloud cover will likely keep the overnight
mins elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA with SCT-BKN clouds 8-10k ft ABV valley floors.
Lowering cloud bases in/around storms to FEW/SCT 4k-6k ft AGL with
brief MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess of 45
kts possible with storms and outflows. Storms becoming ISOLD after
24/06Z with less of a wind threat. Otherwise, expect E-SE winds 5-15
kts through the period. SCT SHRA/TSRA redeveloping after 24/19Z with
the same hazards/clouds as today. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Abundant moisture over the region on a steady monsoon
flow pattern through next week will result in high humidity levels
and daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including overnight
storms at times. Storms into the foreseeable future will produce
wetting rains for the most part, with a threat strong gusty winds
and locally heavy rains leading to significant runoff.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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