Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

235 
WGUS55 KTWC 232052
FFWTWC
AZC019-232245-
/O.EXT.KTWC.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220623T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
152 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

The National Weather Service in Tucson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Pima County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 345 PM MST.

* At 152 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the Contreras burn scar will result in 
debris flow moving downstream. The debris flow can consist of rock, 
mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways and streets.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Kitt Peak and Pan Tak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of 
creeks, roads and normally dry washes is likely. The heavy rains 
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep 
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3204 11157 3186 11149 3183 11163 3198 11174
      3202 11165

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

RAH

351 
WGUS75 KTWC 232241
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
341 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

AZC019-232251-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220623T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
341 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3204 11157 3186 11149 3183 11163 3198 11174
      3202 11165

$$

RAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
935 AM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Another reinforcing shot of moisture will result in more
shower and thunderstorm activity across southeast Arizona today
through the weekend. Thunderstorms today should affect areas from
Sells to the New Mexico border. Some storms will generate strong
erratic winds and locally heavy runoff producing rains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIRES CAM solutions continue to depict a busier
convection day today especially compared to yesterday. Basically
more convection with a much earlier start, likely first over central
Pima county around or shortly after noon. The question is how
vigorous will the convection be.

CAPE and shear values don't point toward wild storms however DCAPE is
up there enough from mainly central Pima county northward toward
Phoenix that a few strong outflows may be a problem. Of course over
the lower deserts early in the season that could bring about blowing
dust issues. Coordinated with Phoenix office (Thanks PHX) about
possibility of including parts of the lower desert in Marginal severe
area on SPC outlook. Will see on that, either way there is some
threat of greater than 50 mph gusts that part of AZ.

Other issue is precipitable water. It has dropped over the last 24hrs
so the heavy rain threat is less, but it is just high enough west of
Tucson with slow moving storms that local areas may have heavy rain
and runoff. Not a great day for that given the marginal PW but will
need to watch for training storms or those with little if any
movement.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
AFT 19Z, SCT SHRA/TSRA with SCT-BKN clouds 8-10k ft ABV valley
floors. Lowering cloud bases in/around storms to FEW/SCT 4k-6k ft
AGL with brief MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess
of 45 kts possible with storms and outflows. Otherwise, expect E-SE
winds 5-15 kts through the period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Abundant moisture over the region on a steady monsoon
flow pattern will result in high humidity levels and daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms into next week. There should be a notable
uptick in storm coverage across the entire SE Zone this afternoon
and evening. Due to the deep moisture in place, expect a good chance
of wetting rains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 AM MST Thu Jun 23 2022/
Some showers were lingering across portions of Cochise county early
this morning. Would expect this activity to dissipate by day break.
Otherwise, models continued to depict more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening compared to
Wednesday. Thereafter, the overall flow pattern remained favorable
for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Models did point to
Sunday as being a significant upswing in showers and thunderstorms.
This uptick in activity will be in response to an upper low/inverted
trough interacting with the deep moisture over AZ as it approaches
from the east. Otherwise, high temperatures will hover near
seasonable readings.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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