Dust Storm Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
likely have a different character and affect different areas each
day. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be
near or a bit cooler than average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Well, today has played along according to the script
with the first storms popping over central Pima county at noon. HRRR
has done en excellent job highlighting this since yesterday. They
are filling in nicely around other areas. Some locally heavy rains
have been reported with an inch plus over northern parts of the
Contreras Fire. Besides the locally heavy rain threat we will still
need to watch for strong outflows, particularity Pinal county where
the DCAPE is the highest. That would lead to blowing dust issues at a
minimum. If the HRRR continues to be fairly correct with what is
going on, interacting outflows will maintain convection well into the
night before it settles down, mainly west of Tucson.

Looking forward, the various CAMs (especially the HRRR) are fairly
excited about tomorrow afternoon with an early start once again.
That will depend on how well we clear the clouds by tomorrow morning
as we will need the solar insolation to recharge. PW should be a bit
higher further east so potential for decent rainers exists.

Saturday through next week we maintain a favorable monsoon flow
pattern which, if modeled correctly will keep high PW levels over
the area, near the 80-90% percentile level for late June. Ensembles
continue to suggest enhanced activity Sunday thanks to an easterly
wave, then another enhanced day or two next week into the following
weekend thanks to additional waves. Thanks to the moisture and
convection, high temperatures will generally be a bit below average
Saturday onward, although cloud cover will likely keep the overnight
mins elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA with SCT-BKN clouds 8-10k ft ABV valley floors.
Lowering cloud bases in/around storms to FEW/SCT 4k-6k ft AGL with
brief MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess of 45
kts possible with storms and outflows. Storms becoming ISOLD after
24/06Z with less of a wind threat. Otherwise, expect E-SE winds 5-15
kts through the period. SCT SHRA/TSRA redeveloping after 24/19Z with
the same hazards/clouds as today. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Abundant moisture over the region on a steady monsoon
flow pattern through next week will result in high humidity levels
and daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including overnight
storms at times. Storms into the foreseeable future will produce
wetting rains for the most part, with a threat strong gusty winds
and locally heavy rains leading to significant runoff.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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