Tornado Warning 27, NWS Tulsa, OK

213 
WWUS54 KTSA 050327
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1027 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

OKC107-111-050336-
/O.EXP.KTSA.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-220505T0330Z/
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
1027 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds up to 50 mph and heavy 
rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3550 9644 3560 9596 3538 9596 3537 9598
      3529 9598 3529 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 235DEG 17KT 3547 9598 

$$

69

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
824 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 823 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022
HP tornadic supercell continues over Okfuskee county and will
likely move into Okmulgee county within the hour. This storm
remains near the vicinity of warm front and a tornadic/flash flood
threat should persist as low level jet begins to strengthen.

Additional severe storms to the west will also likely impact
portions of east-central Oklahoma this evening. Storms still
expected to grow upscale with strong to severe MCS sweeping
through a large portion of eastern Oklahoma late this evening
into the early morning hours.

PWATs have already climbed to 1.8 inches and the threat for
significant and potentially damaging flash flooding will be likely
with any training storms. Tornado and severe thunderstorm
probabilities have already been increased on the Decision Support
Page to reflect current thinking, but will continue to be refined
as short term storm scale/mesoscale trends evolve.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Warm front is currently lifting north near the I-40 corridor with
upper 60s to near 70 dew-points extending south down to the Red
River. As additional heating continues MlCAPES around 2000 J/kg
are expected along and south of frontal boundary. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms have already developed across portions of
western Oklahoma. Latest mesoscale trends, including CAM solutions
suggest that scattered strong to severe storms will develop across
central Oklahoma, spreading into portions of eastern Oklahoma by
early evening in association with approaching upper level jet
streak. Large hail and damaging winds will be likely with any
storms that develop with an enhanced tornado threat along/south of
frontal boundary.

PWATs have already climbed to 1.5 inches over much of the area
and will likely continue to increase into the 1.75 to 2.00 inch
range overnight. In additional to the scattered storms this
evening, convection to the west will likely grow upscale, with a
MCS sweeping through Eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas by
Thursday morning. A swath of 1 to 3 inches have already occurred
just south of I-44 and with additional rainfall overnight, significant
flash flooding will be possible in some areas with locally 5 to 6
inches possible through Thursday. Several main-stream rivers are
also expected to rise above flood.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Still a little uncertainty regarding how much atmosphere can
destabilize behind main convection line and ahead of approaching
cold front, but the overall heavy rain threat should begin to
shift east of the region by late afternoon. At least a limited
severe threat will be possible across southeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas.

Dry forecast still expected over the weekend into early next week
with a continued warming trend. Gusty south winds will also develop,
especially during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. Low thunderstorm
chances return by Tuesday, however it appears approaching cold
front could stall north of the area which would keep overall precip
chances fairly low. Again, stayed fairly close to NBM guidance
through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Widespread showers and thunderstorms and poor flying conditions
will occur at all sites overnight into early Thursday. Some
improvement is expected as the day goes on Thursday, but MVFR
ceilings will persist through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  74  53  74 / 100  70  20   0
FSM   63  76  55  75 /  90  90  40   0
MLC   63  75  51  77 /  90  70  10   0
BVO   61  74  52  74 / 100  70  20   0
FYV   60  74  52  71 /  90  90  50  10
BYV   57  74  53  68 /  90  90  60  10
MKO   62  74  51  73 /  90  80  20   0
MIO   59  74  53  69 / 100  90  40  10
F10   62  74  50  75 / 100  60  10   0
HHW   64  77  53  79 /  80  90  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
429 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 5 PM.

    AREA AT GREATEST RISK...East-Central Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered severe storms thunderstorms will likely develop by late
afternoon or early evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible over east-central
Oklahoma near a warm frontal boundary.

More widespread thunderstorms to the west are likely to organize
into a squall line and push eastward across the area overnight into
Thursday. The squall line will pose a damaging wind threat, with
potential for isolated gusts above 70 mph, and possibly tornadoes.

In addition, the threat for significant flash flooding continues to
increase given multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
expected. A flash flood watch is in effect through Thursday
afternoon. Widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected with
locally 5 to 6 inches likely in some locations.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential and high wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather could be ongoing early Thursday morning and storms
may also redevelop Thursday afternoon along an advancing cold
front. While uncertainty remains in the coverage of storms by
Thursday afternoon, any storms which do develop would pose a risk
of severe weather.

Dry and mild weather prevails Friday before a notable change
occurs over the weekend. Hot and humid conditions will develop
Sunday and persist through early next week. The early season heat
often raises potential for heat stress for any outdoor activities.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             3 E OKFUSKEE            35.60N 96.18W
05/04/2022  E0.70 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAY 56 AND 110 ROAD.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W OKMULGEE            35.62N 95.99W
05/04/2022                   OKMULGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 56 WEST OUT OF OKMULGEE IS NEARLY
            IMPASSABLE IN SPOTS DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

OKZ057-058-050230-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
904 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Craig
and northwestern Ottawa Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 904 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
southeast of Chetopa, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Treece...                         Picher...
Cardin...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 9504 3700 9516 3700 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 238DEG 43KT 3698 9503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W OKMULGEE            35.62N 96.01W
05/04/2022                   OKMULGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING ROAD ABOUT 4
            MILES WEST OF OKMULGEE ON HIGHWAY 56.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.97W
05/04/2022                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN
            OKMULGEE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
930 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             OKEMAH                  35.43N 96.30W
05/04/2022  E0.88 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS