Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area
this morning with some brief heavy downpours possible. Significant
flash flooding and river flooding is ongoing, especially across
parts of eastern Oklahoma southeast of I-44. An axis of very heavy
rainfall of 7-10 inches of accumulation fell across portions of
northeast Oklahoma from Okfuskee county up to Delaware county and
into northwest Arkansas. Heed any road closures and remember to
turn around when encountering flooded roadways. There have been
several reports of roads washed out across the area and
significant river flooding is ongoing along the Illinois Basin and
in Okmulgee county.

The severe potential will be minimal this morning, with
increasing chances possible later this afternoon as more
instability builds in ahead of a cold front moving southeast
across the region. Portions of southeast Oklahoma, especially near
the Red River will have the best chance at seeing any severe
weather this afternoon where instability will be greatest and less
convective overturning of the airmass has occurred since last
night. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat
with a very low chance at a tornado across far southeast Oklahoma.
Across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas a more limited
severe threat will persist through the afternoon with elevated
storms posing a large hail risk the main threat. A highly modified
atmosphere should keep the severe potential pretty isolated in
this area, but a few severe storms remain possible along the cold
front. More heavy rain and flooding could also occur as more
convective storms move over some of the same heavily impacted
areas this afternoon. The cold front will push through the area by
this evening taking the rain chances with it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Light showers may accompany the closed low center as it passes
northern areas Friday, otherwise mild and dry weather will prevail
into Saturday. A quick and substantial moisture return will
accompany building ridging aloft to yield hot and humid conditions
Sunday through early next week and early season heat impacts are
possible. The highly amplified pattern aloft largely keeps
focusing surface boundaries will west and north of the region
through mid week. The pattern evolution for mid to late next week
remains complex and correspondingly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is moving across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon ahead of an
advancing frontal boundary. Scattered thunder is expected at all
sites moving out from west to east by around 00Z. MVFR cigs are
expected to expand in coverage this afternoon, especially behind
the boundary and in thunderstorms where temporary IFR cigs are
possible. Cigs will remain MVFR to IFR through the night before
beginning to lift tomorrow morning. Winds will switch to be more
westerly to northwesterly with some gusts near 20 knots possible
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  73  53  82 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   54  74  53  82 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   50  76  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   51  72  51  80 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   50  69  50  81 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   51  66  50  77 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   50  72  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   51  68  50  78 /  50   0   0   0
F10   50  74  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   52  79  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
101 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far Southeastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and gradually end from west to east as a cold front push through
the area. A few storms could be strong to severe with some hail
and damaging winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma where
there is greater instability. A low end tornado risk is also
possible near the Red River where a brief period of surface based
storms will be possible this afternoon. Storms will push east of
the area this evening with some drier air moving in behind the
front. More localized heavy rainfall could lead to more flash
flooding concerns on top of what has already occurred.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather returns for Friday and Saturday with
hot and humid conditions developing by Sunday and continuing
through early next week. Early season heat stress conditions
are possible with any outdoor activities.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1204 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

OKZ060-061-064>067-070-051730-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Rogers OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
Wagoner OK-
1204 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Rogers,
southeastern Creek, western Wagoner, Okmulgee, northwestern Muskogee,
southeastern Tulsa and northeastern Okfuskee Counties through 1230 PM
CDT...

At 1204 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Kellyville to 2 miles north of Beggs to 4
miles northeast of Okemah. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Okmulgee...                       Okemah...
Bixby...                          Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Okfuskee...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Catoosa...                        Haskell...
Kiefer...                         Morris...
Beggs...                          Mounds...
Kellyville...                     Schulter...
Boynton...                        Slick...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 194 and 239.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9573 3559 9551 3555 9571 3555 9582
      3553 9582 3542 9635 3595 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 245DEG 47KT 3592 9624 3579 9609 3548 9627

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     HAIL             1 W OKMULGEE            35.62N 95.97W
05/05/2022  M0.88 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

OKZ060>062-066-067-051800-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
1230 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Rogers,
southwestern Mayes, Wagoner, north central Okmulgee and southeastern
Tulsa Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1229 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Catoosa to 3 miles southwest of Stonebluff.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Wagoner...                        Bixby...
Coweta...                         Catoosa...
Inola...                          Porter...
Stonebluff...                     Oneta...
Redbird...                        Leonard...
Mazie...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 226 and 240.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 9532 3584 9564 3586 9565 3586 9577
      3582 9577 3580 9589 3616 9591 3628 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 261DEG 31KT 3619 9580 3583 9577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BLOCKER            35.08N 95.54W
05/05/2022                   PITTSBURG          OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND BLEW DOWN LARGE
            TREES.

&&

EJC

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