Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area
this morning with some brief heavy downpours possible. Significant
flash flooding and river flooding is ongoing, especially across
parts of eastern Oklahoma southeast of I-44. An axis of very heavy
rainfall of 7-10 inches of accumulation fell across portions of
northeast Oklahoma from Okfuskee county up to Delaware county and
into northwest Arkansas. Heed any road closures and remember to
turn around when encountering flooded roadways. There have been
several reports of roads washed out across the area and
significant river flooding is ongoing along the Illinois Basin and
in Okmulgee county.

The severe potential will be minimal this morning, with
increasing chances possible later this afternoon as more
instability builds in ahead of a cold front moving southeast
across the region. Portions of southeast Oklahoma, especially near
the Red River will have the best chance at seeing any severe
weather this afternoon where instability will be greatest and less
convective overturning of the airmass has occurred since last
night. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat
with a very low chance at a tornado across far southeast Oklahoma.
Across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas a more limited
severe threat will persist through the afternoon with elevated
storms posing a large hail risk the main threat. A highly modified
atmosphere should keep the severe potential pretty isolated in
this area, but a few severe storms remain possible along the cold
front. More heavy rain and flooding could also occur as more
convective storms move over some of the same heavily impacted
areas this afternoon. The cold front will push through the area by
this evening taking the rain chances with it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Light showers may accompany the closed low center as it passes
northern areas Friday, otherwise mild and dry weather will prevail
into Saturday. A quick and substantial moisture return will
accompany building ridging aloft to yield hot and humid conditions
Sunday through early next week and early season heat impacts are
possible. The highly amplified pattern aloft largely keeps
focusing surface boundaries will west and north of the region
through mid week. The pattern evolution for mid to late next week
remains complex and correspondingly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is moving across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon ahead of an
advancing frontal boundary. Scattered thunder is expected at all
sites moving out from west to east by around 00Z. MVFR cigs are
expected to expand in coverage this afternoon, especially behind
the boundary and in thunderstorms where temporary IFR cigs are
possible. Cigs will remain MVFR to IFR through the night before
beginning to lift tomorrow morning. Winds will switch to be more
westerly to northwesterly with some gusts near 20 knots possible
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  73  53  82 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   54  74  53  82 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   50  76  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   51  72  51  80 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   50  69  50  81 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   51  66  50  77 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   50  72  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   51  68  50  78 /  50   0   0   0
F10   50  74  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   52  79  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
101 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far Southeastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and gradually end from west to east as a cold front push through
the area. A few storms could be strong to severe with some hail
and damaging winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma where
there is greater instability. A low end tornado risk is also
possible near the Red River where a brief period of surface based
storms will be possible this afternoon. Storms will push east of
the area this evening with some drier air moving in behind the
front. More localized heavy rainfall could lead to more flash
flooding concerns on top of what has already occurred.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather returns for Friday and Saturday with
hot and humid conditions developing by Sunday and continuing
through early next week. Early season heat stress conditions
are possible with any outdoor activities.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
124 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

OKZ049-053-051900-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
124 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Pushmataha and eastern Choctaw Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 124 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Raymond Gary State Park, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Towson...                    Raymond Gary State Park...
Huskey...                         Swink...
Frogville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 9537 3429 9516 3425 9507 3424 9515
      3394 9516 3396 9523 3394 9525 3390 9526
      3389 9526 3389 9527 3391 9527 3390 9528
      3388 9528 3387 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 211DEG 30KT 3392 9524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
133 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

ARZ001-010-019-OKZ063-068>070-072-051915-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-
Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
133 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Benton, northwestern
Crawford, Washington, eastern Delaware, northwestern Sequoyah, Adair,
Cherokee and east central Muskogee Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from South West City to 4 miles east of Lake Tenkiller
State Park. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Tahlequah...                      Siloam Springs...
Stilwell...                       Jay...
Bella Vista...                    Lowell...
Farmington...                     Pea Ridge...
Prairie Grove...                  Gentry...
Elkins...                         Tontitown...
Gravette...                       West Fork...
Lincoln...                        Cave Springs...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 35 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9387 3639 9387 3639 9388
      3638 9389 3637 9388 3637 9387 3569 9409
      3554 9523 3655 9474 3659 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 250DEG 52KT 3651 9460 3559 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH