Tornado Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

256 
WWUS54 KTSA 120110
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
810 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

OKC023-127-120130-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220412T0130Z/
Pushmataha OK-Choctaw OK-
810 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND NORTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES...
    
At 809 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles southeast of Lane, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Kellond...
Kent...                           Darwin...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 9591 3416 9578 3433 9578 3429 9555
      3406 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 285DEG 12KT 3423 9583 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

The primary short term concern focuses on severe weather potential
through this evening, primarily from southeast OK through parts
of west central AR, along and south of quasi-stationary boundary.
As of 2 PM, the boundary extended near I-40 in west central AR to
near MLC to a little south of ADM. Meso analysis showing a pocket
of SB CAPE aground 3000 j/kg near I-30 in NC TX/SC OK with little
cap remaining. As such most of the recent CAM guidance shows
development across SE OK/WC AR over the next few hours, with some
suggestion of more robust development closer to 00z farther to
the southwest. Storms should become supercellular rather quick
given the strength/orientation of deep layer shear, with all modes
of severe possible in any more discrete cells. These storms will
move off to the east with most ending around 06z or shortly
thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Moist Gulf air will surge back north Tuesday in response to a
quickly approaching Pacific shortwave with entire area well
withing the warm sector. A sharp dryline will become established
west of I-35 as has been advertised for a few days now, but there
are a number of factors that could keep much, if any, convection
along the dry line in OK. Another consistent signal in the data
has been for a subtropical shortwave to lift northeast relatively
early in the day, forcing more widespread development in the warm
sector across TX/LA into southern OK, which would likely place
the OK portion of dry line within an area of subsidence. Most
guidance continues to support this with limited development. The
POP forecast for Tuesday mainly reflect potential associated
with the southern wave, which will have some severe potential. In
the event any storms fire on the dry line Tues afternoon, the
conditional prob of severe weather is quite high. Will also see
rather gusty winds Tuesday afternoon, fortunately we stay east of
the dry line which limits fire weather concerns some.

Higher chances of storms will eventually arrive in eastern Ok
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as Pacific front overtakes
the dry line and sweeps through the area. These storms will also
have severe potential, though the highest may end up being just
east of the forecast area. Drier but cooler air behind the front
along with gusty NW winds will raise the fire weather potential,
though temperatures may stay below Red Flag criteria.

Patter will remain unsettled through the weekend with another
chance of showers and thunderstorms Easter weekend, with highest
chances appearing to be Saturday. A trend toward well below
normal temperatures may be shaping up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Scattered thunderstorm development will remain possible into this
evening across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Will
continue with Tempo groups for timing. Late this evening and
overnight tonight...a surface boundary over the region is forecast
to lift north of the CWA with a return of southerly winds. Within
this return flow...IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to spread back
over the CWA and remain common for the morning hours Tuesday.
These conditions look to lift back to VFR during the afternoon
hours as southerly winds become gusty with gusts of 20-30KT
possible. There are additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms late in the TAF period and have added Prob30 groups
to MLC/FSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  82  57  67 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   61  81  63  74 /  70  30  50  70
MLC   59  80  60  75 /  30  30  30  30
BVO   51  82  53  66 /  10  10  40  30
FYV   56  79  58  70 /  30  20  50  80
BYV   54  78  60  71 /  30  20  50  80
MKO   56  79  59  71 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  79  56  66 /  10  10  40  60
F10   56  81  59  71 /  10  20  30  30
HHW   64  79  63  79 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...Severe Storm Potentials Continue This Evening...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA... Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of a McAlester to Ozark Line.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this evening, mainly
along and south of a boundary positioned from southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas. The greater severe potentials are
expected mainly along and south of a line from McAlester Oklahoma
to Ozark Arkansas. Large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph, and also a tornado potential will continue
to be possible with these storms. Majority of this activity is
forecast to push east of the region by midnight, with slight
chances and weakening severe potentials remaining possible in
northwest Arkansas after midnight.

Also overnight tonight, the boundary is forecast to lift back
north of the region with a return of breezy to gusty southerly
winds late tonight into Tuesday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
		  Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
			Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire
						Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Tuesday and Wednesday may both feature organized severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Tuesday's threat
is highly conditional, with the main question being how many
storms develop either ahead of a dryline expected to be near the
Interstate 35 corridor during the afternoon or across southeast
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. An unstable airmass and
sufficient wind shear will be in place across the area, and any
storms that are able to develop will have a good chance to
strengthen to severe levels. Large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes will all be possible tomorrow, but again, the overall
threat will be contingent on thunderstorms developing at all.

A cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday, with
additional strong to severe thunderstorms likely to develop along
it and sweep through the area. Strong winds and drier conditions
west of the cold front will increase fire weather concerns
Wednesday afternoon.

The potential for showers and storms will return over the
weekend as another frontal boundary moves into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             3 NW VESTA              35.40N 94.10W
04/11/2022  U0.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0544 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MEG               35.36N 93.86W
04/11/2022  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   PUBLIC

            PHOTO RELAYED VIA TWITTER. 4 MILES NORTH OF
            CAULKSVILLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              35.30N 94.04W
04/11/2022  E2.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   STORM CHASER

            PHOTO RELAYED VIA TWITTER. HAIL POSED NEXT
            TO AN ACTUAL BASEBALL.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             LAVACA                  35.34N 94.18W
04/11/2022  E2.50 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHOTO OF HAIL POSED NEXT TO A PLASTIC GOLF
            BALL AND A LIGHT BULB RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA VIA TWITTER. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              35.30N 94.04W
04/11/2022  E3.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   STORM CHASER

            PHOTO RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM EARLIER REPORTS.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMER                 35.29N 94.13W
04/11/2022                   SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO A RESIDENCE. MAY BE
            ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 S RED OAK             34.93N 95.08W
04/11/2022  E1.00 INCH       LATIMER            OK   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0643 PM     HAIL             BENGAL                  34.83N 95.06W
04/11/2022  E1.25 INCH       LATIMER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA TWITTER. 4 MILES N OF TALIHINA.

&&