Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Tulsa, OK

196 
WWUS54 KTSA 120028
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
728 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

OKC127-120100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220412T0100Z/
Pushmataha OK-
728 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA COUNTY...

At 728 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Daisy, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kosoma...                         Dunbar...
Stanley...                        Snow...
Eubanks...                        Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 9578 3450 9578 3451 9577 3451 9567
      3456 9567 3456 9536 3429 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 281DEG 26KT 3446 9573 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

782 
WWUS54 KTSA 120046
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
746 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

OKC127-120100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220412T0100Z/
Pushmataha OK-
746 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA COUNTY...

At 745 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Dunbar, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kosoma...                         Dunbar...
Stanley...                        Snow...
Eubanks...                        Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 9578 3450 9578 3451 9577 3451 9567
      3456 9567 3456 9536 3429 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 288DEG 21KT 3445 9565 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

The primary short term concern focuses on severe weather potential
through this evening, primarily from southeast OK through parts
of west central AR, along and south of quasi-stationary boundary.
As of 2 PM, the boundary extended near I-40 in west central AR to
near MLC to a little south of ADM. Meso analysis showing a pocket
of SB CAPE aground 3000 j/kg near I-30 in NC TX/SC OK with little
cap remaining. As such most of the recent CAM guidance shows
development across SE OK/WC AR over the next few hours, with some
suggestion of more robust development closer to 00z farther to
the southwest. Storms should become supercellular rather quick
given the strength/orientation of deep layer shear, with all modes
of severe possible in any more discrete cells. These storms will
move off to the east with most ending around 06z or shortly
thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Moist Gulf air will surge back north Tuesday in response to a
quickly approaching Pacific shortwave with entire area well
withing the warm sector. A sharp dryline will become established
west of I-35 as has been advertised for a few days now, but there
are a number of factors that could keep much, if any, convection
along the dry line in OK. Another consistent signal in the data
has been for a subtropical shortwave to lift northeast relatively
early in the day, forcing more widespread development in the warm
sector across TX/LA into southern OK, which would likely place
the OK portion of dry line within an area of subsidence. Most
guidance continues to support this with limited development. The
POP forecast for Tuesday mainly reflect potential associated
with the southern wave, which will have some severe potential. In
the event any storms fire on the dry line Tues afternoon, the
conditional prob of severe weather is quite high. Will also see
rather gusty winds Tuesday afternoon, fortunately we stay east of
the dry line which limits fire weather concerns some.

Higher chances of storms will eventually arrive in eastern Ok
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as Pacific front overtakes
the dry line and sweeps through the area. These storms will also
have severe potential, though the highest may end up being just
east of the forecast area. Drier but cooler air behind the front
along with gusty NW winds will raise the fire weather potential,
though temperatures may stay below Red Flag criteria.

Patter will remain unsettled through the weekend with another
chance of showers and thunderstorms Easter weekend, with highest
chances appearing to be Saturday. A trend toward well below
normal temperatures may be shaping up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Scattered thunderstorm development will remain possible into this
evening across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Will
continue with Tempo groups for timing. Late this evening and
overnight tonight...a surface boundary over the region is forecast
to lift north of the CWA with a return of southerly winds. Within
this return flow...IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to spread back
over the CWA and remain common for the morning hours Tuesday.
These conditions look to lift back to VFR during the afternoon
hours as southerly winds become gusty with gusts of 20-30KT
possible. There are additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms late in the TAF period and have added Prob30 groups
to MLC/FSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  82  57  67 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   61  81  63  74 /  70  30  50  70
MLC   59  80  60  75 /  30  30  30  30
BVO   51  82  53  66 /  10  10  40  30
FYV   56  79  58  70 /  30  20  50  80
BYV   54  78  60  71 /  30  20  50  80
MKO   56  79  59  71 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  79  56  66 /  10  10  40  60
F10   56  81  59  71 /  10  20  30  30
HHW   64  79  63  79 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop late this afternoon and into the evening along and
south of a boundary stalled across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Hail to the size of tennis balls and damaging wind gusts
to 70 mph will be the main threats, with a limited tornado threat
especially for storms that interact with the boundary. These
storms are expected to shift east of the forecast area by
midnight.

In addition to the main threat area in southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas, ongoing storms across far northeast Oklahoma and
into far northwest Arkansas may produce marginally severe hail
through early afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...
       Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...
       Very High Fire Weather Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Tuesday and Wednesday may both feature organized severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Tuesday's threat
is highly conditional, with the main question being how many
storms develop either ahead of a dryline expected to be near the
Interstate 35 corridor during the afternoon or across southeast
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. An unstable airmass and
sufficient wind shear will be in place across the area, and any
storms that are able to develop with have a good chance to
strengthen to severe levels. Large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes will all be possible tomorrow, but again, the overall
threat will be contingent on thunderstorms developing at all.

A cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday, with
additional strong to severe thunderstorms likely to develop along
it and sweep through the area. Strong winds and drier conditions
west of the cold front will increase fire weather concerns
Wednesday afternoon.

The potential for showers and storms will return over the
weekend as a frontal boundary moves into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             3 NW VESTA              35.40N 94.10W
04/11/2022  U0.75 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0544 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MEG               35.36N 93.86W
04/11/2022  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   PUBLIC

            PHOTO RELAYED VIA TWITTER. 4 MILES NORTH OF
            CAULKSVILLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              35.30N 94.04W
04/11/2022  E2.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   STORM CHASER

            PHOTO RELAYED VIA TWITTER. HAIL POSED NEXT
            TO AN ACTUAL BASEBALL.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             LAVACA                  35.34N 94.18W
04/11/2022  E2.50 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHOTO OF HAIL POSED NEXT TO A PLASTIC GOLF
            BALL AND A LIGHT BULB RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA VIA TWITTER. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              35.30N 94.04W
04/11/2022  E3.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   STORM CHASER

            PHOTO RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM EARLIER REPORTS.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMER                 35.29N 94.13W
04/11/2022                   SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO A RESIDENCE. MAY BE
            ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 S RED OAK             34.93N 95.08W
04/11/2022  E1.00 INCH       LATIMER            OK   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0643 PM     HAIL             BENGAL                  34.83N 95.06W
04/11/2022  E1.25 INCH       LATIMER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA TWITTER. 4 MILES N OF TALIHINA.

&&