Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

The primary short term concern focuses on severe weather potential
through this evening, primarily from southeast OK through parts
of west central AR, along and south of quasi-stationary boundary.
As of 2 PM, the boundary extended near I-40 in west central AR to
near MLC to a little south of ADM. Meso analysis showing a pocket
of SB CAPE aground 3000 j/kg near I-30 in NC TX/SC OK with little
cap remaining. As such most of the recent CAM guidance shows
development across SE OK/WC AR over the next few hours, with some
suggestion of more robust development closer to 00z farther to
the southwest. Storms should become supercellular rather quick
given the strength/orientation of deep layer shear, with all modes
of severe possible in any more discrete cells. These storms will
move off to the east with most ending around 06z or shortly
thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Moist Gulf air will surge back north Tuesday in response to a
quickly approaching Pacific shortwave with entire area well
withing the warm sector. A sharp dryline will become established
west of I-35 as has been advertised for a few days now, but there
are a number of factors that could keep much, if any, convection
along the dry line in OK. Another consistent signal in the data
has been for a subtropical shortwave to lift northeast relatively
early in the day, forcing more widespread development in the warm
sector across TX/LA into southern OK, which would likely place
the OK portion of dry line within an area of subsidence. Most
guidance continues to support this with limited development. The
POP forecast for Tuesday mainly reflect potential associated
with the southern wave, which will have some severe potential. In
the event any storms fire on the dry line Tues afternoon, the
conditional prob of severe weather is quite high. Will also see
rather gusty winds Tuesday afternoon, fortunately we stay east of
the dry line which limits fire weather concerns some.

Higher chances of storms will eventually arrive in eastern Ok
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as Pacific front overtakes
the dry line and sweeps through the area. These storms will also
have severe potential, though the highest may end up being just
east of the forecast area. Drier but cooler air behind the front
along with gusty NW winds will raise the fire weather potential,
though temperatures may stay below Red Flag criteria.

Patter will remain unsettled through the weekend with another
chance of showers and thunderstorms Easter weekend, with highest
chances appearing to be Saturday. A trend toward well below
normal temperatures may be shaping up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Scattered thunderstorm development will remain possible into this
evening across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Will
continue with Tempo groups for timing. Late this evening and
overnight tonight...a surface boundary over the region is forecast
to lift north of the CWA with a return of southerly winds. Within
this return flow...IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to spread back
over the CWA and remain common for the morning hours Tuesday.
These conditions look to lift back to VFR during the afternoon
hours as southerly winds become gusty with gusts of 20-30KT
possible. There are additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms late in the TAF period and have added Prob30 groups
to MLC/FSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  82  57  67 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   61  81  63  74 /  70  30  50  70
MLC   59  80  60  75 /  30  30  30  30
BVO   51  82  53  66 /  10  10  40  30
FYV   56  79  58  70 /  30  20  50  80
BYV   54  78  60  71 /  30  20  50  80
MKO   56  79  59  71 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  79  56  66 /  10  10  40  60
F10   56  81  59  71 /  10  20  30  30
HHW   64  79  63  79 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...Severe Storm Potentials Continue This Evening...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA... Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of a McAlester to Ozark Line.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this evening, mainly
along and south of a boundary positioned from southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas. The greater severe potentials are
expected mainly along and south of a line from McAlester Oklahoma
to Ozark Arkansas. Large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph, and also a tornado potential will continue
to be possible with these storms. Majority of this activity is
forecast to push east of the region by midnight, with slight
chances and weakening severe potentials remaining possible in
northwest Arkansas after midnight.

Also overnight tonight, the boundary is forecast to lift back
north of the region with a return of breezy to gusty southerly
winds late tonight into Tuesday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
		  Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather
			Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire
						Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Tuesday and Wednesday may both feature organized severe weather
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Tuesday's threat
is highly conditional, with the main question being how many
storms develop either ahead of a dryline expected to be near the
Interstate 35 corridor during the afternoon or across southeast
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. An unstable airmass and
sufficient wind shear will be in place across the area, and any
storms that are able to develop will have a good chance to
strengthen to severe levels. Large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes will all be possible tomorrow, but again, the overall
threat will be contingent on thunderstorms developing at all.

A cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday, with
additional strong to severe thunderstorms likely to develop along
it and sweep through the area. Strong winds and drier conditions
west of the cold front will increase fire weather concerns
Wednesday afternoon.

The potential for showers and storms will return over the
weekend as another frontal boundary moves into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 S RED OAK             34.93N 95.08W
04/11/2022  E1.00 INCH       LATIMER            OK   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0643 PM     HAIL             BENGAL                  34.83N 95.06W
04/11/2022  E1.25 INCH       LATIMER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA TWITTER. 4 MILES N OF TALIHINA.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
817 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             ANTLERS                 34.23N 95.62W
04/11/2022  E1.75 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             3 SW SUMMERFIELD        34.87N 94.90W
04/11/2022  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   STORM CHASER

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
832 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

ARZ029-OKZ076-120200-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
832 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sebastian and east central Le Flore Counties through 900 PM CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
east of Heavener Runestone State Park, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mansfield...                      Hartford...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Patterson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9424 3495 9428 3496 9433 3495 9434
      3496 9437 3495 9438 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3493 9445 3483 9445 3485 9458 3497 9462
      3506 9425 3506 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 256DEG 49KT 3491 9450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH