Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
152 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

A steady stream of thunderstorms will continue to pummel
far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into the early
evening hours in the developing northwesterly flow aloft. These
storms will continue to produce heavy rains, strong gusty winds
and hail up to the size of quarters. Additional thunderstorms
are set to develop in the vicinity of an outflow boundary
across northeast Oklahoma that currently extends from near Westville
across the Tulsa metro and just to near Stillwater. The
boundary is expected to become nearly stationary with the strong
heating taking place across the area and a meso low developing
across north-central Oklahoma. With a weakening cap and surface CAPE
values of 4000-5000 J/KG, rapid storm development is expected late
this afternoon near the boundary. The thunderstorms are then
expected to congeal into an MCS this evening and spread to the
south-southeast in advance of a cold front moving through the
region. These storms will be capable of producing large hail
to the size of tennis balls, 80 mph winds and possibly a tornado
early in the event near the outflow boundary. The thunderstorms
should mostly be out of the area by early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

High pressure is set to prevail across the region on Monday
as the cold front eventually stalls across north Texas. There
will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
night into Tuesday morning as a mid-level shortwave moves
across the region. Portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas may see scattered showers and storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the stalled front moves back north as a warm
front. The timing of the late week/weekend storm system seems
to be a little faster, so pops have been increased across
the area on Friday. Will continue the pops for Saturday for
now. However, they may be removed with later forecasts if the
faster timing of this system pans out. Regardless, it looks
like cooler temperatures are on tap for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm activity into the
evening. MVFR/IFR vsbys possible with any storms that directly
affect terminals. Most confident in the near term over in far NW
AR where tempo IFR was inserted. The latest data suggests some
potential for MVFR cigs behind a cold front late tonight into
Monday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  81  64  86 /  50   0  20  20
FSM   65  83  64  87 /  70   0  20  20
MLC   63  83  65  88 /  60   0  20  20
BVO   57  80  60  86 /  30   0  20  20
FYV   59  81  60  84 /  70   0  20  20
BYV   58  77  57  81 /  70   0  20  20
MKO   60  80  62  85 /  60   0  20  20
MIO   56  77  59  83 /  70   0  20  20
F10   61  80  64  86 /  60   0  20  20
HHW   66  85  66  90 /  50   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
153 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
153 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast/East-Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited to locally Elevated.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited to locally Elevated.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms this afternoon and
evening across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
cluster of storms early this afternoon across northwest Arkansas
will be capable of producing marginally severe hail and damaging
winds. Additional more discrete storms are expected to develop
near an outflow boundary and will be capable of producing very
large hail to 2 inches in diameter or greater, damaging wind gusts
to 70 mph and possibly a tornado. The tornado threat will be
greatest where a storm can stay on or near the boundary for a
longer period of time. Storms may eventually congeal into a
complex or cluster and plunge south this evening, with the threat
transitioning to damaging winds to near 70 mph. The severe threat
should begin to wane as the activity heads toward the Red River
tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall has occurred with the cluster of storms
across northwest Arkansas early is afternoon. Some localized flash
flooding is possible due to very heavy rainfall rates.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY thru WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Low thunderstorm chances will return late Monday night and Tuesday
morning as a warm front lifts north across the area. A cold front
will move into the area Friday, bringing another chance of
thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will continue into next weekend,
with storm chances continuing.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     HAIL             3 E SONORA              36.17N 94.03W
05/15/2022  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE BENTONVILLE       36.36N 94.20W
05/15/2022                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREE LIMBS, UP TO ONE INCH IN
            DIAMETER BROKEN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
112 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             HOLIDAY ISLAND          36.48N 93.73W
05/15/2022  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL IN
            HOLIDAY ISLAND.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     HAIL             2 ESE MONTE NE          36.28N 94.06W
05/15/2022  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEA RIDGE               36.45N 94.11W
05/15/2022                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            TREE SNAPPED. REPORT VIA MEDIA ON TWITTER.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S BENTONVILLE         36.34N 94.21W
05/15/2022                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            UPROOTED TREE. REPORTED VIA TWITTER BY
            MEDIA.

&&

RJS