Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1115 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Modifications to the forecast have been made based on the latest
data. Situation is continually evolving ahead of a cold front
that is draped across KS/MO and the CAMs have had difficulties of
late. An outflow boundary that was draped along the highway 412
corridor early this morning from last night's storms has lifted
north and washing out. Another outflow boundary is pushing south
into far NE OK from the KS storms. Current thinking is that we'll
get more cellular afternoon development along consolidated outflow
ahead of the front with gradual upscale growth into one or more
SE moving clusters into the late afternoon and evening. With a
moderate to highly unstable airmass in place ahead of the
boundaries, the more discrete storms will be capable of very large
hail and damaging winds. If a storm can ride a boundary there
will be potential for a tornado as well. Once storms evolve into
clusters the threat will transition to primarily damaging wind,
with wider swaths of near 70 mph winds possible.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Most of the showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by late
this evening, with low shower and storm chances confined to
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas by late tonight.
After a cooler and less humid day Monday, the heat and humidity
will return Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A few showers and
storms remain possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the warmer and more
humid air lifts back north into our area.

Wednesday and Thursday look hot and humid. An isolated storm or
two cannot be ruled out during this period, but the chances look
too low to mention. A relatively strong cold front will push into
the area by Friday afternoon bringing another chance of showers
and storms. Unsettled weather will then continue through next
weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing and
temperatures cooling to below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

A little early morning fog across parts of northeast Oklahoma will
quickly give way to VFR conditions for much of the day. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front later
this afternoon and evening and move from north to south across the
terminals. Reduced vsbys will occur within any tsra along with
some gusty winds and possibly some MVFR cigs. Storms should move
out overnight and VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  59  83  63 /  50  30   0  20
FSM   88  64  86  64 /  10  60   0  20
MLC   91  63  85  64 /  20  50   0  10
BVO   85  56  82  58 /  50  20   0  20
FYV   85  57  81  57 /  40  40   0  20
BYV   83  57  80  56 /  70  40   0  20
MKO   89  60  83  62 /  40  50   0  20
MIO   83  56  80  59 /  70  30   0  20
F10   90  60  83  63 /  30  30   0  20
HHW   91  67  88  66 /   0  50   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
522 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Around Noon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly
this afternoon and early this evening, as a cold front moves south
across the area. Damaging winds up to 70 miles an hour will be the
greatest threat, but large hail and a tornado or two will also be
possible.

Thunderstorms are organizing across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas early this morning, and these storms are likely to move
southeast, and should be approaching far northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas by midday. At least scattered severe storms
are expected to develop this afternoon along the western flank of
this line, and if these storms remain discrete, a more significant
hail and tornado threat may develop. Locally heavy rainfall will
also accompany some of the storms.

The thunderstorms will continue to move southeast with the cold
front, and the severe threat should diminish by mid to late
evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low thunderstorm chances will return late Monday night and Tuesday
morning as a warm front lifts north across the area. A cold front
will move into the area Friday, bringing another chance of
thunderstorms. Unsetttled weather will continue into next weekend,
with storm chances continuing.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     HAIL             1 E ONETA               36.02N 95.70W
05/15/2022  U1.00 INCH       WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&