Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

745 
WGUS74 KTSA 152030
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
330 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ARC087-143-152130-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-220515T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison AR-Washington AR-
330 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated the heavy rain has ended 
across the warned area. Radar estimates between 1 and 3 inches of 
rain fell across the western and southern portion of Madison county 
and far eastern Washington county. Flash flooding may still be 
ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Huntsville...                     St. Paul...
Hindsville...                     Wesley...
Kingston...                       Forum...
Aurora...                         Clifty...
Boston...                         Withrow Springs State Park...
Pettigrew...                      Japton...
Witter...                         Marble...
Goshen...                         Georgetown...
Red Star...                       Alabam...
Crosses...                        Best...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 9349 3588 9352 3576 9352 3587 9395
      3621 9403 3624 9401 3623 9387 3631 9387
      3630 9366 3628 9366 3628 9363 3620 9362
      3619 9358 3616 9359 3615 9355 3613 9355
      3612 9348 3608 9348 3608 9345 3597 9345

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Lacy

957 
WGUS74 KTSA 152120
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
420 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ARC087-143-152130-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-220515T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison AR-Washington AR-
420 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3595 9349 3588 9352 3576 9352 3587 9395
      3621 9403 3624 9401 3623 9387 3631 9387
      3630 9366 3628 9366 3628 9363 3620 9362
      3619 9358 3616 9359 3615 9355 3613 9355
      3612 9348 3608 9348 3608 9345 3597 9345

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Modifications to the forecast have been made based on the latest
data. Situation is continually evolving ahead of a cold front
that is draped across KS/MO and the CAMs have had difficulties of
late. An outflow boundary that was draped along the highway 412
corridor early this morning from last night's storms has lifted
north and washing out. Another outflow boundary is pushing south
into far NE OK from the KS storms. Current thinking is that we'll
get more cellular afternoon development along consolidated outflow
ahead of the front with gradual upscale growth into one or more
SE moving clusters into the late afternoon and evening. With a
moderate to highly unstable airmass in place ahead of the
boundaries, the more discrete storms will be capable of very large
hail and damaging winds. If a storm can ride a boundary there
will be potential for a tornado as well. Once storms evolve into
clusters the threat will transition to primarily damaging wind,
with wider swaths of near 70 mph winds possible.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Most of the showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by late
this evening, with low shower and storm chances confined to
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas by late tonight.
After a cooler and less humid day Monday, the heat and humidity
will return Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A few showers and
storms remain possible late Monday night and Tuesday morning across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the warmer and more
humid air lifts back north into our area.

Wednesday and Thursday look hot and humid. An isolated storm or
two cannot be ruled out during this period, but the chances look
too low to mention. A relatively strong cold front will push into
the area by Friday afternoon bringing another chance of showers
and storms. Unsettled weather will then continue through next
weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing and
temperatures cooling to below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm activity into the
evening. MVFR/IFR vsbys possible with any storms that directly
affect terminals. Most confident in the near term over in far NW
AR where tempo IFR was inserted. The latest data suggests some
potential for MVFR cigs behind a cold front late tonight into
Monday morning.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  81  64  86 /  50   0  20  20
FSM   65  83  64  87 /  70   0  20  20
MLC   63  83  65  88 /  60   0  20  20
BVO   57  80  60  86 /  30   0  20  20
FYV   59  81  60  84 /  70   0  20  20
BYV   58  77  57  81 /  70   0  20  20
MKO   60  80  62  85 /  60   0  20  20
MIO   56  77  59  83 /  70   0  20  20
F10   61  80  64  86 /  60   0  20  20
HHW   66  85  66  90 /  50   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
522 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Around Noon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly
this afternoon and early this evening, as a cold front moves south
across the area. Damaging winds up to 70 miles an hour will be the
greatest threat, but large hail and a tornado or two will also be
possible.

Thunderstorms are organizing across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas early this morning, and these storms are likely to move
southeast, and should be approaching far northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas by midday. At least scattered severe storms
are expected to develop this afternoon along the western flank of
this line, and if these storms remain discrete, a more significant
hail and tornado threat may develop. Locally heavy rainfall will
also accompany some of the storms.

The thunderstorms will continue to move southeast with the cold
front, and the severe threat should diminish by mid to late
evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low thunderstorm chances will return late Monday night and Tuesday
morning as a warm front lifts north across the area. A cold front
will move into the area Friday, bringing another chance of
thunderstorms. Unsetttled weather will continue into next weekend,
with storm chances continuing.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     HAIL             1 E ONETA               36.02N 95.70W
05/15/2022  U1.00 INCH       WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     HAIL             3 WNW GOSHEN            36.12N 94.04W
05/15/2022  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     HAIL             3 E SONORA              36.17N 94.03W
05/15/2022  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE BENTONVILLE       36.36N 94.20W
05/15/2022                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREE LIMBS, UP TO ONE INCH IN
            DIAMETER BROKEN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
112 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             HOLIDAY ISLAND          36.48N 93.73W
05/15/2022  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL IN
            HOLIDAY ISLAND.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     HAIL             2 ESE MONTE NE          36.28N 94.06W
05/15/2022  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS