Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
155 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022
A few strong to severe storms continue this afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma ahead of cold front, currently located just east
of I-35. Steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear will support
a large hail threat through the remainder of the afternoon hours,
especially across southeast Oklahoma where instability will be
maximized.

Significant flooding continues from the heavy rain that occurred
overnight with numerous rivers in flood. Don't expect ongoing
thunderstorm activity to have too big of impact on flooding given
the scattered nature. With that said however, a few areas could
pick up a quick half to one inch. The flash flood watch remains
in effect for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through 7 PM
this evening. Stronger storms will shift east by mid evening with
a few lingering showers/isolated thunder across far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Mild conditions expected on Friday behind departing upper system.
A warming trend quickly develops over the weekend as upper ridge
axis builds over the southern Plains. The unseasonably warm weather
will likely persist through the early to middle part of next week
under weaker southwest flow aloft. Currently, it appears that dry
line will remain capped in our area, which is likely a good thing
given the extreme instability that develops each afternoon. A weak
frontal boundary approaches on Tuesday but likely stalls north over
Kansas. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well above normal with
limited rainfall chances. Upper ridge remains stalled as omega
blocking pattern develops over the CONUS with upper lows on both
coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is moving across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon ahead of an
advancing frontal boundary. Scattered thunder is expected at all
sites moving out from west to east by around 00Z. MVFR cigs are
expected to expand in coverage this afternoon, especially behind
the boundary and in thunderstorms where temporary IFR cigs are
possible. Cigs will remain MVFR to IFR through the night before
beginning to lift tomorrow morning. Winds will switch to be more
westerly to northwesterly with some gusts near 20 knots possible
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  73  53  83 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   54  74  53  83 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   50  76  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   51  72  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   50  69  50  82 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   51  66  50  78 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   50  72  52  81 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   51  68  50  79 /  50   0   0   0
F10   50  74  54  83 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   52  79  57  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
101 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far Southeastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and gradually end from west to east as a cold front push through
the area. A few storms could be strong to severe with some hail
and damaging winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma where
there is greater instability. A low end tornado risk is also
possible near the Red River where a brief period of surface based
storms will be possible this afternoon. Storms will push east of
the area this evening with some drier air moving in behind the
front. More localized heavy rainfall could lead to more flash
flooding concerns on top of what has already occurred.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather returns for Friday and Saturday with
hot and humid conditions developing by Sunday and continuing
through early next week. Early season heat stress conditions
are possible with any outdoor activities.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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