Tornado Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

903 
WWUS53 KTOP 300208
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
908 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSC197-300217-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220430T0215Z/
Wabaunsee-
908 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 915 PM CDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3880 9623 3893 9624 3898 9604 3884 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 272DEG 28KT 3891 9610 

$$

Reese

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 pm CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

- Severe thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and extend
through the evening hours. Discrete supercells will be capable of
large hail and possible tornadoes. A line of storms will develop
during the evening hours with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few meso vortex tornadoes embedded within the
line.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible Monday afternoon
and evening.

This afternoon and Tonight: Early this afternoon a surface low was
located across west central KS with a dryline extending east
southeast through Russel, to east of Great Bend to west of Kingman.
An EML has overspread the warm sector however sfc heating heating,
convergence along the surface dryline and stronger ascent ahead
of a a shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Plains will
help to erode the capping inversion for a few discrete supercells
to develop along and ahead of the dryline across north central and
south central KS. The environment will be favorable for any
discrete supercells to produce large hail and possible tornadoes
given forecast hodographs that show clockwise looping in the
lowest 2 to 3KM. This will provide low-level horizontal vorticity
to be nearly parcel with the storm relative motions vectors.
Thus, any supercell may develop intense low-level rotation that
could produce a tornado. Even though surface dewpoints are only in
the lower 60s, H5 temperatures are around
-17 degree C providing over 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE. There are a few
 CAMs that show the cap ahead of the dryline not breaking but the
 latest HRRR that is usually more robust with CIN, shows discrete
 supercells developing northeast of Newton KS around 22Z and
 moving northeast into the TOP CWA by 7 PM, and into east central
 KS by 8 PM. The surface cold front across northwest KS will
 gradually overtake the dryline and cause a line of storms to
 develop across the western CWA. There may be a period during the
 late afternoon through the early evening hours across the western
 counties for the storms that develop ahead of the front to
 remain semi-discrete for an hour or two before transitioning into
 a linear line of the storms. I cannot rule out a possible
 tornado with any of the semi-discrete storms across north central
 KS during the late afternoon and early evening hours. This line
 will move east ahead of the cold front across northeast and east
 central KS and should move southeast of the CWA by 12 Midnight.
 Expect damaging wind gusts along the QLCS and since the sfc-3KM
 shear vectors will be nearly perpendicular to the line there may
 be a few meso vortex tornadoes embedded within the line through
 the mid and late evening hours.

Saturday through Sunday, the H5 trough across the Plains will lift
northeast into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. Another
upper trough will dig southeast across the western US Saturday
night. Expect cooler temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 60s along the NE border with
upper 60s expected across the southern counties. Highs on Sunday
will be warmer as the H5 ridge shifts east across the Plains. look
for maximum temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday night through Monday night, an upper trough across the
southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains late Monday.
Strong southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture
northward across the state. Isentropic lift may cause a few elevated
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday morning. We may see some
clearing Monday afternoon before a surface front shifts southeast
across the CWA. Surface convergence across along the front combined
with DCVA will provide sufficient lift for numerous showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon int Monday night. The vertical wind
shear combined with instability will be favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms with the better chance across east central KS.

Tuesday through Wednesday, another upper level trough will dig
southeast across the western US into the southwest US. A downstream
ridge will move across the Plains. Expect cooler temperatures with
the highs in the 60s.

Wednesday night through Friday, the upper level trough across the
southwest US will slowly lift northeast. Expect chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The vertical shear and instability may be
sufficient on Thursday for a some stronger to severe storms. Cloud
cover and rain may keep highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Strong to severe storms could impact airports for the first few
hours of the 00Z TAF period. Will amend as necessary as storms
continue to develop and track toward terminals, but have included
TSRA and strong winds for the current expected timeframe. A cold
front will move through and winds will shift to the west. A line
of storms along the front will also shift east of sites as the
boundary moves through by 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
824 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010130-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
824 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect. Severe thunderstorms are
impacting the region this evening into the early overnight hours.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with these storms
this evening. Into tonight, storms are expected to form into a
squall line along a cold front as they move into far eastern
Kansas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main
hazards at that time. Storms should exit the area after midnight.

A High Wind Warning is also in effect for central and north
central portions of Kansas until 10 PM. Southwest winds will be
between 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. Blowing dust will
cause visibilities to drop to less than one mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
802 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TORNADO          7 SE CARLTON            38.62N 97.19W
04/29/2022                   DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
819 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TORNADO          1 S WAMEGO              39.19N 96.31W
04/29/2022                   WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
821 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S WAMEGO              39.19N 96.31W
04/29/2022                   WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
838 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
04/29/2022  M65 MPH          CLOUD              KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION K5CNC US-81 @ REPUBLICAN R.
            CONCORDIA.

&&

ST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
845 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ055-056-058-300215-
Coffey-Franklin-Osage-
845 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Franklin,
southeastern Osage and northern Coffey Counties through 915 PM CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Melvern, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Osage City, Overbrook, Lyndon, Lebo, Pomona, Waverly, Williamsburg,
New Strawn, Quenemo, Melvern, Princeton, Olivet, Beto Junction,
Pomona Lake and Melvern Lake.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 144 and 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9546 3839 9550 3837 9551 3825 9579
      3839 9595 3851 9595 3884 9556 3878 9550
      3874 9550 3874 9545 3850 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 232DEG 47KT 3849 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Laflin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
854 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TORNADO          1 NW MAYETTA            39.35N 95.73W
04/29/2022                   JACKSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JACKSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT HIGHWAY 75 AND
            166TH ROAD.

&&

ST