Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 pm CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

- Severe thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and extend
through the evening hours. Discrete supercells will be capable of
large hail and possible tornadoes. A line of storms will develop
during the evening hours with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few meso vortex tornadoes embedded within the
line.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible Monday afternoon
and evening.

This afternoon and Tonight: Early this afternoon a surface low was
located across west central KS with a dryline extending east
southeast through Russel, to east of Great Bend to west of Kingman.
An EML has overspread the warm sector however sfc heating heating,
convergence along the surface dryline and stronger ascent ahead
of a a shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Plains will
help to erode the capping inversion for a few discrete supercells
to develop along and ahead of the dryline across north central and
south central KS. The environment will be favorable for any
discrete supercells to produce large hail and possible tornadoes
given forecast hodographs that show clockwise looping in the
lowest 2 to 3KM. This will provide low-level horizontal vorticity
to be nearly parcel with the storm relative motions vectors.
Thus, any supercell may develop intense low-level rotation that
could produce a tornado. Even though surface dewpoints are only in
the lower 60s, H5 temperatures are around
-17 degree C providing over 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE. There are a few
 CAMs that show the cap ahead of the dryline not breaking but the
 latest HRRR that is usually more robust with CIN, shows discrete
 supercells developing northeast of Newton KS around 22Z and
 moving northeast into the TOP CWA by 7 PM, and into east central
 KS by 8 PM. The surface cold front across northwest KS will
 gradually overtake the dryline and cause a line of storms to
 develop across the western CWA. There may be a period during the
 late afternoon through the early evening hours across the western
 counties for the storms that develop ahead of the front to
 remain semi-discrete for an hour or two before transitioning into
 a linear line of the storms. I cannot rule out a possible
 tornado with any of the semi-discrete storms across north central
 KS during the late afternoon and early evening hours. This line
 will move east ahead of the cold front across northeast and east
 central KS and should move southeast of the CWA by 12 Midnight.
 Expect damaging wind gusts along the QLCS and since the sfc-3KM
 shear vectors will be nearly perpendicular to the line there may
 be a few meso vortex tornadoes embedded within the line through
 the mid and late evening hours.

Saturday through Sunday, the H5 trough across the Plains will lift
northeast into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. Another
upper trough will dig southeast across the western US Saturday
night. Expect cooler temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 60s along the NE border with
upper 60s expected across the southern counties. Highs on Sunday
will be warmer as the H5 ridge shifts east across the Plains. look
for maximum temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday night through Monday night, an upper trough across the
southwest US will lift northeast across the Plains late Monday.
Strong southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture
northward across the state. Isentropic lift may cause a few elevated
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday morning. We may see some
clearing Monday afternoon before a surface front shifts southeast
across the CWA. Surface convergence across along the front combined
with DCVA will provide sufficient lift for numerous showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon int Monday night. The vertical wind
shear combined with instability will be favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms with the better chance across east central KS.

Tuesday through Wednesday, another upper level trough will dig
southeast across the western US into the southwest US. A downstream
ridge will move across the Plains. Expect cooler temperatures with
the highs in the 60s.

Wednesday night through Friday, the upper level trough across the
southwest US will slowly lift northeast. Expect chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The vertical shear and instability may be
sufficient on Thursday for a some stronger to severe storms. Cloud
cover and rain may keep highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Strong to severe storms could impact airports for the first few
hours of the 00Z TAF period. Will amend as necessary as storms
continue to develop and track toward terminals, but have included
TSRA and strong winds for the current expected timeframe. A cold
front will move through and winds will shift to the west. A line
of storms along the front will also shift east of sites as the
boundary moves through by 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
716 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
716 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A tornado watch is currently in effect. Severe thunderstorms are
impacting the region this evening into the early overnight hours.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with these storms
this evening. Into tonight, storms are expected to form into a
squall line along a cold front as they move into far eastern
Kansas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main
hazards at that time. Storms should exit the area after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
04/29/2022  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TORNADO          1 S WASHINGTON          39.81N 97.05W
04/29/2022                   WASHINGTON         KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS BRIEF TOUCHDOWN JUST OUTSIDE
            OF WASHINGTON AT 640PM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
04/29/2022  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             1 NNW CHAPMAN           38.98N 97.02W
04/29/2022  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             3 NE ABILENE            38.94N 97.17W
04/29/2022  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
720 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST TESCOTT                 39.01N 97.88W
04/29/2022  E70 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 TO 12 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN AND SHINGLES
            BLOWN OFF ROOFS.

&&